It’s been one of the franchise’s biggest questions since before the season even began: Will the Washington Nationals shut down Stephen Strasburg? If so, after how many innings? And even if the team is in the midst (or at the front) of a pennant race?
Since the preseason, it’s been floating around that the team would shut down their ace after 160 innings. Strasburg underwent Tommy John surgery toward the end of the 2010 season before returning to throw just 24 Major League innings in September, 2011. Throughout the season, the Nationals have maintained the line that they would limit Strasburg’s innings regardless of their position in the standings. But now, with Strasburg having logged 127.1 innings and the Nats sitting at 67-43—the best record in the National League—the moment of truth has finally arrived.
Everyone and their mother has an opinion on the matter, but there’s really only a few whose voices really count: the team’s ownership, management (both on the field and behind the scenes), and the man himself. During an interview on last week on ESPN’s “Pardon the Interruption,” Nationals manager Davey Johnson indicated that the team is likely to shut Strasburg down after 160 innings, stating that the team was not willing to risk the 24 year-old Cy Young candidate’s future for one playoff race. Last year, the Nats did shut down another great young pitcher, Jordan Zimmerman, after 161.1 innings, but as Johnson acknowledged on “PTI,” the team was in third place at the time. Johnson said that it’s “a little different this year. But you do what’s best for the player, not only for today, but for the long haul.”
General manager Mike Rizzo has claimed that their is no “magic number” for Strasburg, and that he and he alone would decide when the pitcher’s season would end. But in July, Strasburg, who’s 12-5 with a 2.97 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, and 160 strikeouts, told MLB Network Radio that if the team tells him he can’t pitch in the playoffs or World Series, “They’re going to have to rip the ball out of my hands.”
If the Nationals do decide to sit Strasburg down, the rationale is simple: they hope the All-Star righty still has a good many years of baseball in front of him (and preferably in a Nationals’ uniform). That said, it’s still a gutsy move to pull on a fanbase that has yet to see a winning season. Their best year to date since moving to the nation’s capital was their first, 2005, when they went .500 exactly, 81-81. Sure the Nats have the best record in the NL, but there’s a whole lot of season left, and at the moment they’re only four games in front of the Atlanta Braves. If, without Strasburg, the team fell into a wild card spot, well, they’d be putting themselves in a real uncomfortable position. As I discussed two weeks ago, playoff spots are no longer created equal. Even the wild card team that wins the one-game play in is put at a significant disadvantage as they have to put up their two, three, and four pitchers against their opponent’s one, two, and three. If Strasburg is already out of the picture, then they’re another spot back in the rotation when the “real” playoffs begin. And that’s all assuming they win that 163rd game. How quickly will Nats fans forgive Mike Rizzo if they lose the play in game with someone other than Strasburg on the mound? If they weren’t already second guessing his decision, which they are, imagine the fallout of playing just one extra game in what’s looking like it can be “their year.”
Perhaps protecting Strasburg’s arm for years to come is the right decision, it’s not going to change our culture of instant gratification. And while it’s easy to understand why the team would rather wait and see what their ace can bring them in years to come, there is an argument to be made for letting him off the leash. On Saturday, ESPN’s Beth Ann Clyde and Eli Marger laid down their case for letting Strasburg play.
First off, Clyde and Marger analyzed the stats of the 20 pitchers since 2001 who have fit a profile similar to Strasburg’s: they had to be 23 years of age or younger and in the midst of their first season throwing more than 150 innings. They found that there was no major statistical differences in those pitchers’ performances from the beginning of the season through the end of July and August through the season’s end. Secondly, they looked at two cases of young pitchers who underwent Tommy John surgery—A.J. Burnett and the aforementioned Zimmerman—and argued that they actually got better than time, not worse. Of course, the Nationals may be worried less about stats and more about Strasburg getting hurt.
The fact is we won’t ever know which is the right way to go. Strasburg is likely going to sit, and we won’t ever know what could have been.
Follow the writer on Twitter @NateKreichman.
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