Anthony Stalter (under @TheScoresReport) and I (under @fantasytips) will be tweeting throughout Week 12. Feel free to ask us questions, call us names, whatever…
Category: NFL (Page 258 of 1282)
Last week I wrote that there was a possibility that my college football picks would infect my NFL picks and naturally, that’s exactly what happened.
After going 9-3 the three weeks prior, I went 1-3 last Sunday as the Vikings, Panthers (thanks to two defensive touchdowns by the Ravens in the final minutes of the game) and Lions all laid eggs. My one saving grace was the Jaguars, who needed Maurice Jones-Drew to break off a 75-yard screen pass just to get them into scoring position in the final minutes. Awful – just awful.
Nothing but false confidence this week though, baby – let’s do this!
Packers (7-3) @ Falcons (8-2), 1:00PM ET
I really don’t like the side here because this game could go in one of several ways: Aaron Rodgers could consistently pick apart the Falcons’ leaky secondary for four quarters and the Packers could roll; the Falcons could take this game over on the ground and make Rodgers a non-factor; or it could be a back-and-forth nail-bitter that isn’t decided until the closing seconds (or overtime). For the record, I’ll go with Option C. But while everyone expects this game to be a shootout, I actually think both defenses will step up. There may not be a defense in the league that is playing better than Green Bay’s is right now and Atlanta (while prone to giving up a lot of yardage) is seventh in the league in points allowed (19.2). After weeks of putting games on Matt Ryan’s shoulders, I think the Falcons will turn to Michael Turner and the ground game in order to help neutralize Rodgers and the Green Bay passing attack. Under Mike Smith, the Falcons are 18-5 when they win the time of possession battle, so keeping it in Turner’s hands makes sense. With Atlanta trying to chew up the clock on the ground, I think this one falls under the posted total.
THE PICK: PACKERS/FALCONS UNDER 48
Jaguars (6-4) @ Giants (6-4), 1:00PM ET
The Giants are in the midst of one of their Tom Coughlin-led funks but I think they shake out of it today. The Jaguars have won three in a row but nobody outside Jacksonville fans believes that this team is a serious playoff contender. Opponents have been able to go into East Rutherford this year and beat the G-Men, but today will be a different story. The Jaguars’ pass defense is a major weakness that Eli Manning should exploit. But the key with the G-Men is turnovers. They’re 26th in turnovers this season at -0.8 and they haven’t been shy about turning the ball over multiple times a game. The Jaguars, however, rank 31st in turnover margin at -1.1 so New York’s biggest issue may be a non-factor. I like the Giants to roll.
THE PICK: GIANTS -7
Chiefs (6-4) @ Seahawks (5-5), 4:05PM ET
I must be missing something here because it’s surprising to me that the Seahawks would be underdogs at home against a Kansas City team that has dropped two of its last three games. They crushed the Cardinals last week at home but a) they were playing the Cardinals and b) it was at home, where they’re 5-0 this year. On the road, the Chiefs have struggled (1-4) and Seattle is a tough road test for any opponent, no matter how poorly the Seahawks may be playing. The Hawks have dropped three of their last four games but they’re 3-1 at home this year and 3-0 when Charlie Whitehurst (who is atrocious) doesn’t start. Maybe I’m falling into a trap here, but I see the Seahawks taking care of business and I’ll gladly take the points in this one.
THE PICK: SEAHAWKS +2
Chargers (5-5) @ Colts (6-4), 8:20PM ET
It appears as though the public is drunk on San Diego Kool-Aid because the line in this game has gone from 3 to 1 throughout the week. Indy looks highly vulnerable for the first time in years, but they’ve been lights out at home this season. They’re 4-0 at the RCA Dome and have outscored opponents 110-57. Philip Rivers is playing at a MVP-like level but the Colts’ defense has been outstanding at the dome. Peyton Manning won’t lose two in a row with the Jaguars breathing down everyone’s necks and if the line stays under a field goal, I love this play.
THE PICK: COLTS -1
Season Record: 20-19-1
Every week, I have to add a new name to this list, and that’s really saying something as players have to make major adjustments to the NFL game their first year.
1. Ndamukong Suh, Detroit Lions—Hung in tough against Patriots, racking up another sack and three tackles. Not huge numbers, but it’s more his presence in the middle.
2. Sam Bradford, St. Louis Rams—Hung tough in Atlanta despite a loss; but who was really expecting Rams to win that or to be still in contention at Thanksgiving?
3. Earl Thomas, Seattle Seahawks—55 tackles and 5 picks through 10 games after a fine game in a losing effort at New Orleans.
4. Colt McCoy, Cleveland Browns—Of all his numbers, the 63.8% completion percentage as a rookie is the most impressive, especially because you probably can’t name more than one of his receivers.
5. Dez Bryant, Dallas Cowboys—He made it clear on Thanksgiving that he wants the ball more, as his 0 catches proves. And maybe he should get the ball more.
6. Mike Williams, Tampa Bay Bucs—Continues to put points up on a team that might surprise with a postseason berth.
7. Devin McCourty, New England Patriots—61 tackles, including 30 in his last four games; and 5 picks, most notably two on a national stage this past Thursday.
8. Eric Berry, Kansas City Chiefs—Don’t look solely at his numbers, just watch the kid play on Sunday.
9. Jermaine Gresham, Cincinnati Bengals—Slowed recently, but still a bright spot on a crappy team.
10. Jordan Shipley, Cincinnati Bengals—A tough TD against the Jets on a national stage surely won’t hurt his chances here.
Are the Bucs for real? Who knows, but their coach sure is.
1. Raheem Morris, Tampa Bay Bucs—Despite how well the Falcons and Saints are playing, the Bucs are making a case for three teams to come out of the NFC South for the playoffs.
2. Todd Haley, Kansas City Chiefs—If he can hold off the Chargers, he’ll stay here. But that’s a big IF.
3. Andy Reid, Philadelphia Eagles—Raise your hand if you picked the Eagles to win the NFC East. That’s what I thought.
4. Steve Spagnuolo, St. Louis Rams—One game out of first, and it’s almost December. Yeah, the NFC West is kind of a joke, but still.
5. Mike Smith, Atlanta Falcons—The current top seed in the NFC. I wonder what Bobby Petrino is doing these days.
6. (tie) Bill Belichick, New England Patriots and Rex Ryan, New York Jets—The mad scientist is probably watching film of the Jets all holiday weekend to get a jump; but don’t think Rex isn’t doing the same.
7. Lovie Smith, Chicago Bears—He’ll stay here if his team beats Green Bay again (January 2 at Lambeau).
8. Jack Del Rio, Jacksonville Jaguars—They’re what? Leading the AFC South after Week 11?
9. Tom Cable, Oakland Raiders—Hard to believe this guy was so close to losing his job a year ago, and look at him now.
10. Mike Tomlin, Pittsburgh Steelers—Things were bleak in Pittsburgh after a crappy end to 2009 and not having Big Ben for four games to start 2010. But now they are 7-3 and one of the better teams in the AFC.
Let’s face it, it’s hard not to include Thanksgiving Day games in this, so we will. And again, things change from week to week; and some things do not. Eli Manning fumbled himself off this list, and Philip Rivers continues to amaze on a consistent basis.
1. Michael Vick, Philadelphia Eagles—Not as dominating against tough Giants’ D (though two of his receivers dropped passes in the end zone), but led his team to what counts—a W.
2. Tom Brady, New England Patriots—His team is 9-2, and to show he’s made it all the way back from 2008 knee surgery, Brady needs a big game against the Jets a week from Monday.
3. Philip Rivers, San Diego Chargers—On pace for 5083 yards, 37 TDs and 14 picks, without Vincent Jackson (who comes back today) and with a gimpy Gates.
4. Roddy White, Atlanta Falcons—Not reaching 100 yards against the Rams will ding you a couple spots here.
5. Arian Foster, Houston Texans—Regardless of what his team does, Foster keeps putting up numbers.
6. Matt Ryan, Atlanta Falcons—253 and 2 TDs against Rams, which isn’t huge, but the fact that Falcons only have two losses so far is.
7. Clay Matthews, Green Bay Packers—On pace for 21 sacks, but he’ll have to get to the guy right above him on this list today if he wants to remain here.
8. Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints—Don’t look now, here come the defending champs led by #9.
9. Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers—Putting up 301/4/0 in Minnesota against his former mentor Brett Favre was a thing of beauty. And in case anyone hasn’t noticed, the Packers have three losses, all by 3 points and two in OT. Look out.
10. Peyton Manning, Indianapolis Colts—Put up almost 400 yards against New England last week with 4 TDs, but the three picks, including one at the end of the game, are hard to ignore.
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