On Wednesday I discussed the three keys to victory for the Giants in Super Bowl XLVI. On Thursday, it’s the Patriots’ turn.

1. Brady has to be Brady.
We can talk until we’re blue in the face about whether or not New England’s defense will continue to play well. But the fact of the matter is that when Brady isn’t throwing for 400-plus yards and turning in one of those Tom Brady-type performances, the Patriots have looked very beatable this season. The week before the Pats lost to the Giants during the regular season, they lost to the Steelers 25-17 in Pittsburgh. In that game, Brady completed 24-of-35 passes, threw for two touchdowns and compiled a passer rating of 101.8. But he threw for just 198 yards as the Steelers kept everything in front of them and made more plays in the end. A week later Brady threw for 342 yards and two touchdowns but he also tossed two interceptions in a 24-20 loss to the Giants. Now, it’s not far to pin either of those losses solely on Brady and I’m not. But my point is that when he’s not Superman flying around in his red cape, the Pats look rather ordinary. Thus, this is Brady’s game to lose. He turned in a very lackluster performance two weeks ago in the AFC championship game versus the Ravens and privately promised owner Bob Kraft that he would play better in the Super Bowl. He better, because while the Patriots rely on him too much, if he isn’t Tom Brady then there’s a good chance that the G-Men will once again get the best of New England.

2. Pass protect or fall.
While they did allow two sacks, the Patriots’ offensive line actually did a very good job keeping the Giants’ front four in check when these two teams met during the regular season. (Jason Pierre-Paul had one sack but the other came from outside linebacker Michael Boley.) The Giants are most effective when they can generate pressure from the interior of their defensive line. When they get a push from up the middle, they don’t allow the quarterback to step up in the pocket and thus avoid pressure coming from the outside. The biggest concern for the Patriots is center Dan Connolly, who has struggled in pass protection all season. If he can’t raise the level of his play then the Patriots could have a mess on their hands when it comes to keeping Tom Brady upright. The other concern is Sebastian Vollmer, who was arguably the Pats’ best offensive lineman in that Week 9 loss to the Giants. Sidelined since Week 12 with back and ankle injuries, Vollmer is expected to be active this Sunday but how effective will he be? And will he start or will he serve in more of a swing role? New England can’t juggle its offensive line throughout the game and expect perfect results – especially inside a dome where noise could be a factor. That said, the Patriots have a top-10 line when it comes to pass protection so if Connolly can hold his own with Logan Mankins and Brian Waters in the middle, then New England might be able to neutralize New York’s fierce pass rush. Or at least they better play well or else the Pats’ offense could struggle all game.

3. The Pats must be solid on the back end.
For all intents and purposes, Kyle Arrington, James Ihedigbo and Patrick Chung struggled in coverage two weeks ago versus the Ravens. And while Torrey Smith and Anquan Boldin are certainly respectable receivers, they don’t bring the same skill set to the field as Hakeem Nicks and Victor Cruz. The thing that New England’s defense does best is stop the run. But the Giants aren’t coming into this game thinking that if they can just get Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw going that they’ll win. No, they’re going to throw the ball in the climate-friendly dome that the Colts call a home because that’s what they do best and that’s where they can take advantage of potentially mismatches. Thus, if the Patriots don’t play well on the backend then they’re going to be in trouble. Nicks and Cruz are serious vertical threats on the outside but Mario Manningham is also a danger to work the seam. Thus, all three levels have to be good in pass coverage on Sunday or else the Pats could be victimized through the air. Their pass rush has been inconsistent this season and if they can’t generate pressure then it’ll be up to Chung and Co. to step up. Granted, guys like Devin McCourty and Sterling Moore have played well throughout the season. But to borrow that old phrase: You’re only as strong as your weakest link. New England’s defense has steadily improved from the second half of the season up to this point. Now it’s time for them to put together their best performance of the year.

The top guys we chose on offense and defense should run away with these awards, but stranger things have happened.

Offensive rookie of the year power rankings

1. Sam Bradford, St. Louis Rams—Almost led the Rams to a playoff berth, but either way had a great rookie year—3512 yards, 18 TDs, with 15 picks.

2. Aaron Hernandez/Rob Gronkowski, New England Patriots—Along with their QB, these two guys are probably the biggest reason the Patriots are 14-2. Check out these combined numbers – 87 catches, 1109 yards, 16 touchdowns. For two rookies!

3. Mike Williams, Tampa Bay Bucs—Finished with 11 touchdowns and was a big reason the Bucs became relevant again this season.

4. Colt McCoy, Cleveland Browns—Can someone explain to me how this guy fell to the second half of the third round of last April’s draft?

5. Christopher Ivory, New Orleans Saints—In just 12 games, had 716 yards and 5 scores

Defensive rookie of the year power rankings

1. Ndamukong Suh, Detroit Lions—Led all DTs with 10 sacks, but more importantly, earned the respect of everyone and had O-coordinators having to game plan against him.

2. Devin McCourty, New England Patriots—Finished with 7 picks and 82 total tackles.

3. Eric Berry, Kansas City Chiefs—With Cassel, Charles and Bowe, the Chiefs now have a game-changer on defense too.

4. Joe Haden, Cleveland Browns—65 tackles and 6 picks on a team that is going to be really good in a year or two.

5. Jason Pierre-Paul, New York Giants—Everyone wondered what the Giants would do with another defensive end, but this kid exceeded everyone’s expectations.

It’s definitely been a solid year for rookies in the NFL, and here are the top offensive and defensive ones ranked in order of who we think wins the honors for 2010:

Offensive rookie of the year power rankings

1. Sam Bradford, St. Louis Rams—Led the Rams to the team’s biggest victory in years last Sunday, and has to do it again this Sunday.

2. Aaron Hernandez/Rob Gronkowski, New England Patriots—These two guys continue to put up ridiculous numbers if you combine them (81 catches, 1007 yards, 15 TDs).

3. Mike Williams, Tampa Bay Bucs—Two more TDs gave this kid 10 on the season, and he’s on the verge of 1000 yards.

4. Dez Bryant, Dallas Cowboys—He had 8 TDs (receiving and return) through 13 games before getting injured.

5. Colt McCoy, Cleveland Browns—Okay, so this time the young McCoy had a rough go against the Ravens, but we won’t wipe him off the list.

Defensive rookie of the year power rankings

1. Ndamukong Suh, Detroit Lions—60 tackles and 9 sacks through 15 games for a DT is amazing for anyone, much less a rookie.

2. Devin McCourty, New England Patriots—He hasn’t had an INT since Week 13, but the guy is all over the field making plays.

3. Eric Berry, Kansas City Chiefs—I’m sure U of Tennessee fans winced when they saw their former star return a pick for a TD against the Titans.

4. Joe Haden, Cleveland Browns—Had another pick against Baltimore along with five tackles. You think Mike Holmgren knows what he’s doing or what?

5. Jason Pierre-Paul, New York Giants—Even though he’s on a line that already has Justin Tuck and Osi Umenyiora, JPP has 29 tackles, 5 sacks, 2 forced fumbles and 6 passes deflected. I think Jerry Reese chose well when many doubted this kid.

There was an article in USA Today’s Sports Weekly about what a solid rookie class this has been, and it’s so true.

Offensive rookie of the year power rankings

1. Sam Bradford, St. Louis Rams—He’s thrown for 3065 yards on a team that won one game last season, and might possibly lead them to a playoff berth.

2. Aaron Hernandez/Rob Gronkowski, New England Patriots—Between them, 953 yards and 13 TDs through 14 games. Those are Antonio Gates-esque numbers.

3. Colt McCoy, Cleveland Browns—Did you need more proof that this kid is the future at QB? Yeah, the Browns lost to the Bengals, but McCoy put up 243 yards with 2 TDs and no picks, and completed 19 of 25 for a ridiculous 76% completion percentage.

4. Mike Williams, Tampa Bay Bucs—Through 14 games—58/880/8, and a big reason for the Bucs’ resurgence this year.

5. Dez Bryant, Dallas Cowboys—As electrifying a young player the NFL has seen in a long time.

Defensive rookie of the year power rankings

1. Ndamukong Suh, Detroit Lions—Becoming a defensive leader on his team as a rookie, and helping the young Lions become respectable again.

2. Devin McCourty, New England Patriots—Not only does this young stud have 6 interceptions, but he has 77 total tackles to rank near the top for NFL corners.

3. Eric Berry, Kansas City Chiefs—This is a guy you just don’t throw the ball near, and even if you don’t , he has ridiculous closing speed.

4. Joe Haden, Cleveland Browns—McCoy is the offensive bright spot, Haden the defensive one on a team showing promise in the Holmgren regime.

5. Earl Thomas, Seattle Seahawks—Hasn’t had a pick in a while, but his 5 still ranks near the top in the NFL.

Since they vote for offensive and defensive rookies, lets’ change it up this week…

Offensive rookie of the year power rankings

1. Sam Bradford, St. Louis Rams—We’ll let the New Orleans game slide. For now.

2. Aaron Hernandez/Rob Gronkowski, New England Patriots—You shut one out, and the other will burn you. Or, of course, will Deion Branch and Wes Welker.

3. Mike Williams, Tampa Bay Bucs—Was almost shut out by Redskins, but like Bradford, we’ll let it slide because he’s had such as great season on a promising young team.

4. Colt McCoy, Cleveland Browns—He will get the start Sunday against Cincinnati after missing a few games with an ankle injury. Let’s see if it makes a difference, because McCoy has sparked the Browns before.

5. Dez Bryant, Dallas Cowboys—The Cowboys sure missed him against the Eagles.

Defensive rookie of the year power rankings

1. Ndamukong Suh, Detroit Lions—Is anyone really surprised at the ease the big fella transitioned into the NFL?

2. Devin McCourty, New England Patriots—6 picks leads all rookies.

3. Earl Thomas, Seattle Seahawks—Quiet the last few weeks, but who wants to throw in his direction?

4. Eric Berry, Kansas City Chiefs—Berry’s interception against the Chargers was the only good play of the game for his team, and it was a thing of beauty.

5. Joe Haden, Cleveland Browns—His five picks is right behind Thomas, and his overall play has been stellar.