Category: NFL Draft (Page 36 of 102)

      Can we predict a quarterback’s success?

      April 20, 2010 /

      In the April 19 issue of ESPN the Magazine, Peter Keating discusses a way for NFL teams to determine whether or not a first- or second-round QB will have a successful NFL career. (Insider subscription required.)

      David Lewin, formerly an analyst for Football Outsiders and now with the NBA’s Cavaliers, has found that games started and NCAA completion percentage accurately predict NFL performance for QBs drafted in the first two rounds. To be more specific, the Day 1 QBs who go on to have the best pro careers complete at least 60% of their passes and start at least 37 games in college.

      This theory has been around a while and when I was researching it last week, I stumbled across a similar article from 2007, so I’m not exactly sure how far back it dates.

      Using college completion percentage makes a lot of sense. It seems intrinsically true that a QB that has trouble completing passes in college is also going to struggle with his accuracy in the NFL.

      The number of starts is another strong stat. For a prospect to start 37 games, he basically needs to be a three-year starter. This indicates that he’s been around the block a few times, is reasonably durable and opponents have had a chance to game plan for him (and he’s still completed a high percentage of passes). It also seems reasonable to think that most good NFL quarterbacks wouldn’t have to be a backup for more than one season while in college.

      Let’s take a look at the QBs selected in the first and second rounds of the ten drafts spanning from 1998-2007 to see if this theory still holds water.

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      Fantasy Football, NFL, NFL Draft

      Jets shopping Faneca, Ellis and Thomas?

      April 20, 2010 /

      The National Football Post is reporting that the Jets have put guard Alan Faneca, defensive end Shaun Ellis and outside linebacker Bryan Thomas on the trade block. Per Michael Lombardi, all three players may be released after the draft if New York can’t find any trade suitors.

      Faneca went to the Pro Bowl last year but he got there by name recognition only. Despite commanding a hefty salary, he wasn’t a difference maker in the running game and he played poorly as a pass blocker. It’s no wonder the Steelers didn’t want to break the bank trying to retain him a couple of years ago. Brandon Moore was by far the Jets’ best guard last season and comes significantly cheaper.

      Ellis is coming off a productive regular season but faded down the stretch and played poorly in the playoffs. He’s also 32 and becomes a free agent at the end of the 2010 season, making him unlikely to be dealt. Meanwhile, Thomas was extremely good against the run last year but struggled generating much of a pass rush from his outside linebacker position. He’s the youngest of the three players (he’s 30) and is signed through 2011, so the Jets may be able to find a suitor for him.

      That said, I don’t think the Jets will have much of a market for any of these players. All three are aging, Faneca is expensive and if teams know they might have an opportunity to acquire these players after the draft, then why would they trade for them before or during? It doesn’t seem likely that the Jets will get anything for any of these players outside of maybe a seventh round pick. Of course, the report may be bogus as well.


      Photo from fOTOGLIF

      NFL, NFL Draft

      Rams willing to trade out of the top spot?

      April 20, 2010 /

      With the first round of the NFL draft only two days away now, rumors about the No. 1 overall pick are starting to swirl. NBC Sports reports that the Rams are willing to trade out of the top spot for much less than the NFL’s draft trade chart would require.

      While it’s outdated, the draft trade chart suggests that the first pick in Round 1 is worth 3,000 points. So for example, if a team such as the Browns (who have the seventh overall pick) wanted to move up to the top spot, they would have to be willing to give up their first round pick (1,500 points) and three second rounders (worth 510 points apiece). But again, the chart is outdated and the Rams said they would be willing to accept less, so maybe they’d agree to the Browns’ first round pick and one second rounder. (Plus, what team would really give up their first round selection and three second rounders to move up? It’s unrealistic.)

      The more likely scenario is that the Rams will stay put and draft Sam Bradford at No. 1. It’s extremely hard to trade out of the top spot and even though they could target Jimmy Clausen later in the first round, finding a trade partner for the top pick is difficult. Plus, the Rams need a quarterback no matter what. Do they have Bradford and Clausen rated similarly? Because if they don’t, they’re not going to trade down in hopes of landing Clausen when they had a much higher grade on Bradford. The same can be said for Colt McCoy, Tim Tebow, Tony Pike and any other quarterback that would be available in the middle rounds.

      If Bradford is rated first on their board, then they might as well take him at No. 1.


      Photo from fOTOGLIF

      NFL, NFL Draft

      Osi Umenyiora trade rumors heating up

      April 19, 2010 /

      The National Football Post reported over the weekend that the Giants are open to trading Osi Umenyiora during this week’s draft if they select South Florida’s Jason Pierre-Paul.

      Umenyiora, who struggled while trying to rebound from a torn ACL injury suffered during the 2007 season, was upset with the way former defensive coordinator Bill Sheridan (who only lasted one year in the Big Apple) used him last year. While he was open to staying with the Giants, the relationship between him and the team has been strenuous since the end of last season.

      There’s a good chance Pierre-Paul will be available when the Giants pick at No. 15. He’s a raw prospect, but he seems to have a higher ceiling than Georgia Tech’s Derrick Morgan, who is regarded as the top defensive end in this year’s draft. While it the situation makes sense on the surface, New York has a more pressing need to fill at middle linebacker and thus, even if Pierre-Paul is available at 15 it doesn’t mean that they’ll take him. And obviously if they don’t take a DE in the first round, then Umenyiora is unlikely to be traded.

      This story will likely pick up steam heading into the draft, but is one that could fizzle very quickly.


      Photo from fOTOGLIF

      NFL, NFL Draft

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