Even though we have a pretty good Finals matchup, this postseason has been somewhat overshadowed by this summer’s free agency period, when no fewer than seven of the top 17 players (in terms of John Hollinger’s Player Efficiency Rating) are going to be free to sign with any team they choose.
One big question teams are faced with when using their available cap space is just how much each player is worth. This depends on a number of factors: age, production, value, injury history and fit, just to name a few. Over the next week or two, I’m going to examine this year’s free agent crop and try to guesstimate the value of each player. I’ve done this before, with some success.
For each free agent, I’ll list their age (on July 1), their PER, and the salaries of comparable players.
Let’s jump right in and start with the big names…
1. LeBron James, SF
Age: 25
PER: 31.19
Comparables: Dwyane Wade ($17.1 M), Carmelo Anthony ($17.1 M), Kobe Bryant ($24.8 M)
LeBron’s value is off the charts and is only limited by the rules of the collective bargaining agreement. He will likely sign a max deal wherever he goes. He’s going to start at around $16.8 M per season since that’s 30% of the salary cap ($56.1 M), which is a bit more than 105% of his previous year’s salary. (The max first-year salary is whichever is greater.)
Value: $18.0-$18.5 M per year (for three years)
2. Dwyane Wade, SG
Age: 28
PER: 28.10
Comparables: LeBron James ($17.1 M), Carmelo Anthony ($17.1 M), Kobe Bryant ($24.8 M), Brandon Roy ($13.5 M)
Wade is three years older and more injury prone, but he has already won a title and is a top 5 player in the league, so he’ll get a max contract just like LeBron. Since he’s a bit older, I wouldn’t be surprised if he elected to sign a five- or six-year deal instead of going with the shorter deal that has more flexibility.
Value: $19.5 M – $20.5 M (over six years, if he re-signs)
Continue reading »
