The Providence Friars (19-12) fought off a feisty DePaul team, 83-74, keeping its tournament hopes alive, at least for now. Unfortunately, they really need a win against Louisville to earn a bid. If they give the Cardinals a great game, it will probably keep them in the conversation, but at 19-13, they’d likely to be on the outside looking in when it’s all said and done.
The bottom line is, if you’re a fan of one of those other teams on the bubble, you want Providence to lose, and lose bad.
Lately, I’ve been hitting the Joe Lunardi bracketology page over at ESPN on a daily basis — the guy knows his stuff. But I scrolled down and found myself intrigued by one of the comments (by EliSilverman):
Here’s some math to prove just how much better the Big East is than any other conference. The Big East has the lowest average projected seed amongst the top conferences (3.7), surpassing the ACC (4.2), Big 12 (5.5), PAC 10 (6.4), SEC (8.0) and Big 10 (8.1). Now, here’s a bit more math….I predict there’s a 75% chance that the semi-finalists of the Big East tournament also become the Final Four in the Big Dance.
All right, I’m not a math major — I just have an engineering degree — but in order to prove conference strength, it’s not accurate to only average the projected seeds of the teams that get in the tournament. By that logic, Conference USA is the strongest conference because its average projected seed is 2.0 (Memphis).
Eli might say, “Everyone knows that C-USA isn’t the toughest conference because it only has one team in the tournament.” Well, by that logic, the Big 10 is the strongest conference because Lunardi projects that it will get eight tourney bids, one more than the Big East. You can’t have it both ways.
What makes the strongest conference? Is it the quality of the teams at the top? Or is it the strength of the conference from top to bottom. If it’s the former, then the Big East has a great argument. Pitt, UConn and Louisville are legitimate Final Four threats (and are all ranked in the top 5), while the ACC, Big 10 and Big 12 only have one team ranked in the top 7. If you’re going by total conference strength, then it’s hard to beat the Big 10 since it looks like eight of its 11 teams (73%) could get bids. (I know, it’s dumb to have 11 teams in a conference called the Big 10, but that’s another post.) The Big East has 16 teams (a fact glossed over by Big East supporters), so seven bids out of 16 teams (44%) isn’t quite as impressive.
Personally, I go by Jeff Sagarin’s computer rankings. The guy knows his stuff, so if he says that the ACC is the strongest conference top-to-bottom, then I believe him. And if he says that the Big 10 is second, then I’ll believe that too.
And as for the “more math” part of Eli’s post, where he says there is a 75% chance that the Big East semifinalists will make up the Final Four, I’d take that bet any day. First, that’s not “math,” that’s a prediction, and an arbitrary one at that. Second, for that prediction to come true, Pitt, UConn, Louisville and a fourth Final Four team (Villanova/Marquette/Syracuse/West Virginia) all have to be in separate regions. It’s likely that Pitt, UConn and Louisville will be split up, but I’d say that the chances of all three making the Final Four (PLUS a fourth Big East team emerging from the fourth region) aren’t quite 75%. Maybe 5%, and that’s being generous.
Tuesday brought some bad news for the bubble teams — 17th-ranked Butler lost in the Horizon League final, 57-54, and since Butler is getting in regardless, there is one fewer at-large bid to be had.
This makes things tougher for bubble teams like South Carolina, Penn State, Arizona, San Diego State, Creighton, Saint Mary’s, Florida and Miami — Joe Lunardi’s “Last Four In” and “First Four Out.”
In their first year of Division I eligibility, the North Dakota State Bison (26-6) won the Summit League Championship, 66-64, earning a berth in the NCAA tournament. NDSU trailed for much of the game, and was down by 12 with 9:05 to play before going on an 18-4 run, capped by Ben Woodside’s leaning jumper with just three seconds remaining. That gave the Bison the lead for good.
Why am I blogging about the Summit League Championship? Well, two reasons: a) it was an exciting game that deserves attention, and b) I played college ball with the NDSU coach, Saul Phillips. Saul is the kind of guy that had “future coach” written all over him even then. He was an assistant under Bo Ryan at UW-Milwaukee for two years and was an assistant at NDSU for three seasons before getting the head job in 2007. He’s a great guy and clearly a very good coach.
When the two teams played in early January, Oakland hung a loss on the Bison. NDSU was 8-5 at that point, so they have rattled off 18 wins in the 19 games since. Transitioning to the D1 level is tough, and Phillips has handled it well. With the job he’s done at NDSU, he’s a rising star in the coaching world.
Go Bison!
March Madness is arguably the greatest sporting event in the world, so when the NCAA decided to put together a highlights package, there was plenty to choose from. The DVD has four distinct parts: Great Comebacks (including the 1998 “Comeback ‘Cats” of Kentucky), Buzzer Beaters (Bryce Drew, Christian Laettner, etc.), Cinderella Stories (’66 Texas Western, ’06 George Mason) and Legendary Performances (Magic/Bird in ’79, Isiah Thomas in ’81). Jim Nantz narrates and does a nice job of setting up the action, whether it took place in 1966 or in 2006.
In addition to the aforementioned topics, the documentary covers the ’05 comebacks by Louisville and Illinois to make the Final Four, Michael Jordan’s clutch shot in the ’82 finals, Keith Smart’s game-winner in the ’87 finals, Dwyane Wade’s triple-double as well as Jim Valvano’s N.C. State team that took down Houston’s Phi Slamma Jamma. The film also highlights Shaquille O’Neal’s single-game record for blocks, Bo Kimble’s touching tribute to Hank Gathers and Bill Walton’s astonishing 21 for 22 performance in 1973.
Special features include highlights of three championship games: ’79 (Michigan State/Indiana State), ’82 (North Carolina/Georgetown) and ’83 (N.C. State/Houston). There is also an in-depth, uncut interview with Duke coach Mike Krzyzewski.
All in all, this is a nice one-disc package that covers just about every buzzer beater and Cinderella story in the last four decades of the NCAA tournament.
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