Category: Fantasy Football (Page 69 of 324)

New York will host 2014 Super Bowl

Ian O’Connor spoke to Vince Lombardi’s son about the NFL’s decision to hold the 2014 Super Bowl at the Meadowlands…

“My father and mother had real soft spots in their hearts for the New York metropolitan area; it was home to them,” said Vince Lombardi Jr., a 68-year-old motivational speaker whose son, Joe, is quarterbacks coach of the defending champion New Orleans Saints.

“And my father would certainly say: ‘Hey, you play the game in all kinds of weather. You get up in the morning and play the game whether it’s 100 degrees or 13 below.'”

For a fan base that is so tied up in tradition — just check out some of the debates we’ve had here about (gasp!) changing the overtime format — the Super Bowl has never been held outdoors in a cold-weather city.

So why change now?

Weather always seems to have a big impact on the conference playoffs, and that makes sense since teams battle and claw all season for home field advantage. Teams that are built for cold weather should have that advantage. But why bring that potential advantage to the Super Bowl, where the game is supposed to be played on a neutral field?

One argument is that some of the most memorable games (i.e. The Ice Bowl) were played in horrible conditions. Sure, awful weather can make a game memorable, but do NFL fans really want to see two high powered teams like the Saints and the Colts play in a snowstorm? I don’t argue that it might be interesting, but the Super Bowl is already interesting.

Others argue that rain is a possibility for outdoor venues in warm weather cities, but rain and snow/ice are two completely different animals. Teams often play well in light to medium rain, but it’s tough to execute offensively or defensively in freezing and sub-zero conditions.

By the way, this is coming from a Packer fan whose team would no doubt have an advantage in a negative-windchill matchup with the Chargers. The advantage is the problem, no matter who gets it.

Norv Turner sees Ryan Mathews as his workhorse back

When asked how many carries he thought rookie RB Ryan Mathews would have this season, Chargers head coach Norv Turner had this to say: (SignonSanDiego.com)

“That is so hard to say, because there are games that come up like the Tennessee game and the Denver game (last season) where you run the ball 40 times. I’d like every game to be that way. Unfortunately, it’s not. But I would expect Ryan to have 250 carries and 40 catches, something like that. That’s obviously saying Darren is going to have the same role he’s had.”

As a reference, LaDainian Tomlinson carried the ball 223 times for 730 yards and 12 TD, and caught 20 passes for 154 yards. LT2 is a very good pass-catcher, but Sproles took over most of those duties in recent years, so I’m not sure how Mathews gets to 40 catches this season. The carries I can see — Tomlinson missed a couple of games and would have carried the ball about 255-260 times had he stayed healthy.

If Mathews gets that kind of work and takes over the goal-line duties, I can see a 1,000-yard season and double-digit TDs in 2010. If we project 1,100 total yards, with 10 TD and 15 catches, that puts him at 185 fantasy points (in a PPR league). Last season, those were RB20 numbers, so Mathews should go somewhere in the middle of the fourth round, along with Jerome Harrison, Ronnie Brown and Knowshon Moreno.

Man, I have to get used to spelling “Mathews” with one “t.” Sigh.

FOX Sports Experts Draft

Through TSR’s association with Yardbarker, I was invited to be one of the “experts” to participate in Fox Sports’ mock draft, which will apparently be published in its fantasy football magazine later this summer. The other participants were John Juhasz, John Halin, Roger Rotter and Michael Harmon (of FOX Sports), Chris Wesseling (Rotoworld), John Hansen (Guru Report), Derek VanRiper (RotoWire), David Gonos (OPEN Sports), Michael Fabiano (NFL.com), Emil Kadlec (Football Diehards) and Dan Roemhild (MockDraftCentral).

This is a 12-team mock, with high-performance, PPR scoring. The starting lineups consist of a QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, a flex, a TE, a K and a DT. I had the #5 overall pick. Unfortunately, the flash-driven draft room was giving my computer fits and I kept getting disconnected. I probably reloaded the room 100 times over the 90-minute draft and had a to make a few picks with only 30 seconds on the clock and five or six picks ahead of me that needed to be crossed off my cheatsheet.

Anyway, enough with the violins, here’s how the draft went:

1.05: Andre Johnson, WR
When I saw that I had the 5th pick, and Chris Johnson, Adrian Peterson, Maurice Jones-Drew and Ray Rice off the board, my first instinct was to take Frank Gore or Steven Jackson, but with PPR scoring and 3-4 starting WRs, it really enhances the value of the position. Last season, AJ scored 302 points under this format, with Gore (255) and Jackson (242) far behind. Besides, there were a few RBs that might be available in the 4th or 5th rounds that I liked, so I figured I would zag while the rest of the league was zigging.

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Can we predict a quarterback’s success?

In the April 19 issue of ESPN the Magazine, Peter Keating discusses a way for NFL teams to determine whether or not a first- or second-round QB will have a successful NFL career. (Insider subscription required.)

David Lewin, formerly an analyst for Football Outsiders and now with the NBA’s Cavaliers, has found that games started and NCAA completion percentage accurately predict NFL performance for QBs drafted in the first two rounds. To be more specific, the Day 1 QBs who go on to have the best pro careers complete at least 60% of their passes and start at least 37 games in college.

This theory has been around a while and when I was researching it last week, I stumbled across a similar article from 2007, so I’m not exactly sure how far back it dates.

Using college completion percentage makes a lot of sense. It seems intrinsically true that a QB that has trouble completing passes in college is also going to struggle with his accuracy in the NFL.

The number of starts is another strong stat. For a prospect to start 37 games, he basically needs to be a three-year starter. This indicates that he’s been around the block a few times, is reasonably durable and opponents have had a chance to game plan for him (and he’s still completed a high percentage of passes). It also seems reasonable to think that most good NFL quarterbacks wouldn’t have to be a backup for more than one season while in college.

Let’s take a look at the QBs selected in the first and second rounds of the ten drafts spanning from 1998-2007 to see if this theory still holds water.

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