Author: John Paulsen (Page 626 of 937)

Waiver Wire Watch: Week 11

Every week, I highlight a few players that you should target in waivers. I use the ESPN league data when filtering players, so the only players eligible for discussion here are those that are available on the waiver wire of at least 50% of ESPN’s leagues. I’ll list each player’s percentage-owned after their name so you have an idea of how available they are in leagues around the country. I’ll always try to mention a few players that are available in 90% of leagues for those of you in 12-team leagues or leagues with big rosters. I’ll rank them in the order I’d pick them up in a league with a high-performance, PPR scoring system.

Please note that these rankings are for total value through the end of the year. Players with particularly good matchups this week are in bold.

QUARTERBACKS

Gus Frerotte (35.0)
Joe Flacco (34.5)
Six pass TD and one rush TD over the last four games.
Tyler Thigpen (16.0)
237 yards and 2.0 pass TD over the last three games is nothing to sneeze at.
Brady Quinn (41.4)
He looked sharp in his debut, but don’t get too excited – it was against a very bad Denver defense.
Shaun Hill (15.5)
He threw two TD against the Cards, and has a tasty matchup with the Rams next week.
Sage Rosenfels (30.0)
Kerry Collins (20.6)
Ryan Fitzpatrick (7.1)
Seneca Wallace (5.6)
Daunte Culpepper (11.1)

RUNNING BACKS

If Kevin Smith (71.3) is available, I’d grab him before Benson. If Mewelde Moore (73.0), Sammy Morris (71.5) or Justin Fargas (67.3) is available, I’d grab them first before moving on to the rest of this list:

Cedric Benson (45.1)
BenJarvus Green-Ellis (39.0)
It looks like he’s “the man” until Sammy Morris and/or LaMont Jordan get back.
Ricky Williams (47.5)
Peyton Hillis (2.8)
If Selvin Young can’t go, he’ll get most of the work in Denver.
Shaun Alexander (13.4)
He might get some work this week if Portis misses.
Selvin Young (39.5)
If he could just get healthy he’d be RB1 for the Broncos.
Antonio Pittman (7.1)
He could get the start again if Steven Jackson misses Week 11.
Pierre Thomas (23.7)
LaMont Jordan (6.7)
He needs to beat Sammy Morris back to get some work.
Carnell Williams (6.3)
It looks like he’s going to return to action soon.

WIDE RECEIVERS

Greg Camarillo (49.4)
Michael Jenkins (14.5)
Justin Gage (13.2)
Mark Bradley (2.4)
He has posted 18-188-2 over the last three weeks and looks to be a legitimate option alongside Dwayne Bowe and Tony Gonzalez. The fact that Tyler Thigpen is playing well sure helps.
Malcom Floyd (5.0)
He’s thriving while Chris Chambers is hobbled – to the tune of three TD in the last four games.
Josh Morgan (8.1)
Bobby Engram (30.3)
Should have value down the stretch in PPR leagues, especially if Matt Hasselbeck can make it back.
Koren Robinson (1.3)
9-143-2 over the last two games isn’t bad.
Antwaan Randle El (47.1)
Joey Galloway (44.0)
Amani Toomer (35.0)
Donte Stallworth (24.7)
Ike Hilliard (22.0)
Steve Smith (18.3)
Mark Clayton (7.1)
Could get a few more targets next week if Derrick Mason misses action.
Shaun McDonald (4.0)
Posting decent numbers in PPR leagues.

TIGHT ENDS

I would grab Bo Scaife (81.8), Tony Scheffler (68.8), Greg Olsen (79.9), and Jeremy Shockey (81.7) and then move on to…

Kevin Boss (42.0)
After a slow start, Boss has posted 13-133-3 over the last three games. He looks like a solid starter over the stretch run.
Dustin Keller (18.4)
He had a huge day against the Rams (6-107-1) but he’s too inconsistent to be trusted as more than a spot starter.

Next, I’d grab Zach Miller (59.4), Visanthe Shiancoe (64.0) and John Carlson (50.4)

Todd Heap (37.1)
Finally! But does 5-58-2 against the Texans mean that the old Todd Heap is back? Color me skeptical.
Billy Miller (22.9)
Jeremy Shockey turned his ankle, and if he misses more time, Miller will be a solid starter.
Marcedes Lewis (28.8)
L.J. Smith (23.8)
Desmond Clark (10.2)
Robert Royal (12.2)
Alex Smith (19.8)

NBA’s early season PER surprises

John Hollinger’s Player Efficiency Rating (PER) is a nifty way to compare players with vastly different minutes played. For an explanation, check out this article. A score of 15.0 is average.

Here are a few surprise players that are filling the box score early in the season. All players are seeing at least 20 minutes of playing time per game.

POINT GUARDS

#8 Nate Robinson (21.33)

15.0 ppg, 4.3 apg, 3.9 apg, 2.8 spg
Thus far, Robinson is flourishing off the bench in Mike D’Antoni’s high-octane offense. He’s knocking down shots and is sharing the ball well.

#11 Ramon Sessions (19.36)
17.2 ppg, 6.2 apg, 3.6 rpg, 1.4 spg
The 22 year-old Sessions is proving that his late-season run last year was no fluke. His fine play is making the Bucks’ decision to trade Mo Williams a lot clearer. It looks like he’s the point guard of the future in Milwaukee.

SHOOTING GUARDS

#4 Nick Young (23.33)
16.6 ppg, 2.0 apg, 2.0 rpg, 55.4% FG%
Yes, his line is thin (i.e. he doesn’t do much but score), but boy can he put the ball in the hoop. The Wizards are struggling, but Young is providing points off the bench.

#7 Rudy Fernandez (21.31)
13.7 ppg, 3.2 rpg, 1.8 apg, 42.4% 3PT%
Usually, it takes rookies a little while to adjust to the NBA three-point distance, but Fernandez isn’t having a problem. He’s in the running for Rookie of the Year.

#8 Roger Mason (20.96)
16.2 ppg, 3.4 rpg, 3.4 apg, 52.7% FG%, 56.0% 3PT
Mason is doing his best Manu Ginobili impersonation. It looks like the fifth-year player is starting to break out, and once Ginobili returns, he’ll give the Spurs a much-needed fourth scoring option.

SMALL FORWARDS

#2 Trevor Ariza (24.09)
9.4 ppg, 5.0 rpg, 2.0 spg, 60.0% 3PT
Ariza has been remarkably productive in limited minutes. He should be starting, but he needs to show that he has a consistent jump shot before Phil Jackson can use him to space the court for Pau Gasol and Andrew Bynum. For now, he’s bringing great energy off the bench.

#9 Thaddeus Young (18.12)
16.5 ppg, 4.3 apg, 51.9% FG%, 47.8% 3PT
After a stellar yet underrated rookie season, Young is making the most of the extra 10 minutes of playing time. He has shown great improvement from long range and from the free throw line (74% last season, 89% this season).

POWER FORWARDS

#7 Luis Scola (21.87)
13.0 ppg, 7.4 rpg, 56.7 FG%
He did much of his damage last season with Yao Ming sidelined, so it’s impressive that he’s been able to increase his rebound rate.

#13 Jason Thompson (19.71)
11.7 ppg, 6.0 rpg, 59.6 FG%
He’s not starting, but if he keeps this up, the Kings won’t bring the rookie off the bench for long.

CENTERS

#7 Nene (21.29)
16.2 ppg, 9.0 rpg, 1.7 bpg, 66.7% FG%
What is it with Brazilians and their one-word names? Nene is doing his best to make up for the loss of Marcus Camby. We all know that Nene is talented, but he just hasn’t been able to stay healthy. Maybe this is his year.

#8 Josh Boone (18.60)
9.0 ppg, 8.2 rpg, 1.4 bpg, 55.3% FG%
It’s Boone – not lottery pick Brook Lopez – that’s starting at center for the Nets. The team needs to rebound and he’s getting it done.

#10 Spencer Hawes (17.67)
12.9 ppg, 8.4 rpg, 2.0 bpg
Hawes filled in admirably for Brad Miller, and it looks like he’s going to be a solid NBA center.

The answer to the Lakers’ small forward problem

What small forward has the second-highest Player Efficiency Rating (PER) after LeBron James? Carmelo Anthony? No, he’s #19. Caron Butler? No, he’s #10.

The answer is Trevor Ariza, and he just might be the answer to another riddle – the Lakers’ small forward problem.

Vladimir Radmanovic can’t play any defense. Luke Walton can’t shoot. Combined, they’ll make $10.5 million this season (or 13% of the team’s payroll).

But it’s Trevor Ariza (and his $2.9 M salary) who has played the best ball this season. In five games, he is averaging 9.4 points, 5.0 rebounds and 2.0 steals in just 21.6 minutes of play. The big knock on Ariza last season was his lack of outside shooting touch, but he has improved in that area of his game and has hit 6-10 three-point attempts this season. He’s known for his athleticism and his defense, and with an improving jumper, he’s the best small forward on the Laker roster.

Radmanovic may continue to start games, but if Ariza keeps this up, he’ll be finishing them.

More on Trevor Ariza:

ESPN’s J.A. Adande says that Ariza is a “stealth player.”

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