Author: John Paulsen (Page 412 of 937)

Line of the Night (11/3): Dirk Nowitzki

Dirk Nowitzki scored 29 points in the fourth quarter — you read that right — to give the Mavs a 96-85 win over the Utah Jazz. He posted 40 points, 11 rebounds, five assists, five blocks and two steals. He shot 12 of 22 from the field and 15 of 16 from the charity stripe. The Mavs trailed by 16 with 8:17 to play before they made their charge.

After a somewhat surprising loss to the Washington Wizards on opening night, the Mavs beat the Lakers soundly on the road and derailed the Jazz at home, all without Josh Howard. They look like a fringe contender in the West. If they can stay healthy and get a few lucky bounces, they could challenge.

Defensive Team By Waiver Wire (DTBWW): Week 9

The strategy behind DTBWW is that each week, you pick up a defense, preferably one playing at home against a bad offense. And each week, you get pretty good numbers out of your DT position. To see how this approach performed last season, click here.

Last week, I recommended three DTBWW picks. Let’s see how they fared…

#1 Cardinals: 34 PA (0) + 1 SK = 1 fp
#2 Chargers: 16 PA (2) + 5 SK + INT = 8 fp
#3 Texans: 10 PA (6) + 2 SK + 2 INT = 10 fp

Wow, did the Arizona defense lay an egg last week. The Cardinals had the top-ranked rush defense coming in, and had played well the previous two weeks against the Giants and the Seahawks. But DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart gashed them repeatedly on the ground to the tune of 245 yards and two TD, and they failed to get to Jake Delhomme in the passing game. The Chargers and Texans performed as expected. (Special thanks to our NFL guru, Anthony Stalter, for redeeming himself with the Houston pick.)

For the season, the #1 DTBWW pick has averaged 10.4 fantasy points per game, the #2 pick has averaged 9.4 and the #3 pick is posting 7.6. On the whole, DTBWW is producing 9.1 points per game, which are DT5 numbers.

Let’s take a look at this week’s picks. Keep in mind that to be eligible for DTBWW, a defense must be available in at least 40% of ESPN fantasy leagues.

Pick #1: Seattle Seahawks (vs. DET)
Seattle is averaging 11.3 fantasy points at home (versus 2.3 on the road), so a matchup with the visiting Lions is tasty indeed. The Seahawks have destroyed the Rams and Jags at home this season and should be able to post nice fantasy numbers against the struggling Lions.

Pick #2: Atlanta Falcons (vs. WAS)
The Falcons have some problems, but played well in the second half against a great Saints’ offense. The Redskins’ offensive woes have been well documented, and like most defenses, the Falcons play better at home. Another nice thing about ATL is that they have a good matchup in Week 10 as well (@ CAR), so they could be a solid multi-week play.

Pick #3: San Francisco 49ers (vs. TEN)
Vince Young looked pretty good last week, but the 49ers aren’t the Jags. Mike Singletary’s defensive unit did a pretty nice job in a tough situation last week in Indy, and it has played well in favorable situations this season. Containing Chris Johnson is the key.

Is Mike McCarthy the right coach for the Packers?

Over on FanHouse, Packer fan Bruce Ciskie discusses “The Case Against Mike McCarthy.”

In the end, however, the biggest issue with McCarthy — and one that could cost him his job come January if he’s not careful — is discipline.

The Packers have become a penalty-plagued team during his time. In 2005, the final year under Mike Sherman, Green Bay was in the middle of the pack in penalties assessed. McCarthy’s first year actually saw them improve, as they were near the upper third of the league in fewest penalties. However, the 2007 team — one that finished 13-3 — was fourth in the NFL in penalties, finishing second in penalty yards. The Packers were second in penalties and first in yards marked off in 2008. 2009 isn’t looking too much better. So far, they’re second in total penalties and third in yards.

Virtually every Monday when he addresses the media, McCarthy talks about how they’re going to fix the penalty problem, and the special teams problem. Then, almost on cue, the same issues plague this team every Sunday.

Penalties can be so frustrating. The Packers have all (or at least most) of the pieces necessary for a great offense, yet time and time again they find themselves backed up due to a holding penalty or some other mind-numbing infraction. In McCarthy’s defense, his team is young, but at some point the light has to go on and the number of penalties has to go down.

It should be noted that the offense has the second-most penalties in the league, but the defense is actually 26th in that category. Why the disparity? It probably has to do with the Packer offensive line and how it has been in a state of flux since Ted Thompson arrived.

One of the first things that Thompson did when he took over in Green Bay was to let guards Mike Wahle and Marco Rivera walk in free agency. Financially, this was probably a good decision, but from a continuity standpoint, it’s tough to overcome the loss of two experienced vets. The Packer O-line was a strength before Thompson arrived and now it’s probably the team’s biggest weakness.

But back to McCarthy. My problem with the Packers is how they oftentimes come out flat and/or sloppy. The first half of Sunday’s game is a great example. Suddenly, in the second half, the offense is on fire. Some might say that McCarthy deserves credit for giving an inspiring halftime speech or orchestrating the necessary adjustments, but where was that passion and preparation at the start the game?

There’s no doubt that this team has enough talent to make the playoffs, and with a 4-3 record and a relatively weak schedule, they are in good position to do so. As long as they keep winning the games they should win (TB, DET and SEA) and split the remaining six games (DAL, SF, BAL, CHI, PIT and ARI), they’ll finish with 10 wins and a probable wild card berth.

But with the team’s discipline, O-line and special teams problems, it’s entirely possible that they miss the postseason. If that happens, the franchise should consider finding someone else to lead the way.

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