This ought to get the Laker fans fired up about tonight’s Game 7
Author: John Paulsen (Page 230 of 937)
Neil Paine of Basketball Reference thinks so…
We can really illustrate Perkins’ hidden importance by looking at the Plus/Minus numbers. When Perkins was on the court for Boston this season, the Celtics outscored their opponents by 7.2 points per 100 possessions; when he wasn’t playing, that number was only +0.2, a difference of -7 pts/100 poss.
Meanwhile, Perkins’ Game 7 replacements, Rasheed Wallace and Glen Davis, don’t fare nearly as well by the WOWOY metrics. Despite Davis’ heroics in Game 4, he and Wallace have been Boston’s two worst players by net on/off rating during the playoffs. Wallace has been particularly toxic for the Celtics all season — the team played 5 pts/100 poss. worse when he was on the floor, as evidenced by his recurring appearance in the Celts’ worst lineup combinations. Davis & Wallace look better by the 4-year WOWOY regression (Davis is +1.36, Wallace is +0.47), but neither has the ability to positively impact the game the way Perkins does. Without his presence, and playing on the road (home teams win Game 7 80% of the time), the Celtics appear to be in dire straits tonight.
Numbers aside, I tend to agree with Paine from a qualitative point of view. Kendrick Perkins is a really good post defender, better than Rasheed Wallace and much better than Glenn Davis. He is not the offensive player that either of those guys are, but when you’re part of a unit that includes the Big 3 and Rajon Rondo, you don’t have to be.
Wallace has played some good post defense in these playoffs, but he tends to get into foul trouble, and that’s bad news for tonight, when the Celtics are so painfully thin on the front line. His three point range can stretch the defense, but he’s shooting 26% in the Finals and 35% in the postseason, so it’s not like his defender can’t help off of him. The Celtics need a 15/10 kind of a night from ‘Sheed if they hope to win Game 7.
If he gets into early foul trouble and Boston is forced to play Shelden Williams major minutes, the Celtics will be in major trouble.
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The Philadelphia 76ers have agreed to swap Samuel Dalembert to the Sacramento Kings for Andres Nocioni and Spencer Hawes, two league sources told ESPN.com.
…the real ramifications may come during the draft. The Sixers have been deciding between Evan Turner and Derrick Favors with the No. 2 pick. While Sixers general manager Ed Stefanski is a Turner fan, new coach Doug Collins is high on Favors. With Dalembert gone and Nocioni in, it could push them in the direction of Favors.
For the Kings, this could also change their draft equation. The team has been looking at drafting DeMarcus Cousins and Greg Monroe, both centers. With this deal, it could allow them to address another need at the three. The Kings have been high on both Al-Farouq Aminu and Gordon Hayward.
This could alter the draft plans of these two teams, but it shouldn’t. The players involved in the trade — Dalembert, Nocioni, Hawes — are all fringe starters at best, so teams shouldn’t be making draft plans around their arrivals or departures. For example, now that Dalembert is no longer in Philly, it’s not a reason to draft Derrick Favors over Evan Turner. If the Sixers want to go with Favors, they should be because they think he’ll ultimately be the best player in the long run, not because they now have a hole to fill.
The same goes for the Kings. Dalembert is a so-so center in the final year of his contract. Sacramento shouldn’t pass on DeMarcus Cousins because they now have Dalembert on the roster. That wouldn’t make any sense since Dalembert is not an impact player and may not even be around to start the 2011-12 season.
This move will give the Kings an additional $10.7 M in cap space next summer, or approximately $36 million total (minus the salary of their 2010 draft pick). So the Kings will be players again in 2011 free agency assuming they don’t spend all of their cap space over the next month.
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Tom Izzo and reporter Lynn Henning get into a spirited discussion about the media’s response to Izzo’s flirtation with the Cleveland Cavaliers.
Both guys bring up good points, but I especially like Henning’s point about how the silence from MSU and from Izzo’s camp is not going to stop the speculation about Izzo’s future. If Izzo is upset about the misinformation that’s floating around out there, then he needs to set the record straight. If he’s hoping that people are going to stop talking about the situation while he ponders his decision in absolute silence, he’s going to be waiting a long time.
Dr. Jack Ramsay, ESPN: If the Celtics are going to win Game 7, Rajon Rondo has to have a big game. He hasn’t shot the ball well the past two games. He needs to get all the way to the basket and finish. He has to penetrate, generate the transition offense and find the open receivers. Even when the Lakers are scoring, the Celtics have to find a way to run. Those opportunities are there if you are aware of them, and Rondo is a one-man fast break. Lately, Rondo has been too concerned with scoring instead of creating plays. He is Boston’s playmaker. His first objective should be to find open players. He has to find the wingmen — Paul Pierce and Ray Allen — so they can get open looks before the Lakers’ defense gets set.
Bill Plaschke, LA Times: If the Lakers defeat the Boston Celtics in Game 7 of the NBA Finals at Staples Center, their second consecutive championship would give real life to the possibility that this group could stay together long enough to win two more and certify the Lakers as the greatest franchise in NBA history. If they lose, that hope dies here. If the Lakers win, Phil Jackson is paid, Derek Fisher is remembered, Lamar Odom and Ron Artest are forgiven, and everyone returns with a legitimate shot to win it again for each of the remaining four years on the core group’s contracts. If they lose, everyone runs for cover, and not everyone finds it.
Dan Shaughnessy, Boston Globe: Take a good look at your Celtics when they break from their huddle and walk on the Staples Center court for Game 7 against the Lakers tonight. This will never happen again. Not with this group. Ray Allen might be gone next year. Paul Pierce could opt to leave this summer. Coach Doc Rivers says he’s not sure he’s coming back. Rasheed Wallace and Glen Davis are the only Celtic substitutes under contract for 2010-11. Even if by some chance they all return, they will never get to another Game 7 in the Finals. Allen and Kevin Garnett are 34, and their rookie-issue NBA tires are almost as bald as their heads. Pierce turns 33 this year. There are three other thirtysomethings on the bench. This is it. The last stand for the old guard.
Jeff Miller, Orange County Register: Kobe Bryant doesn’t need to win this NBA championship. Not for any legacy, validation or argument about his greatness. Bryant’s legacy is as golden as the jersey he’ll be wearing in Game 7. He could retire during the national anthem Thursday and they’d still build him a statue outside Staples Center… His greatness cannot be questioned any more successfully than his fadeaway jumper still can be defended. Bryant has won four championships and, just for emphasis, done so with two distinctively different teams.
Howard Bryant, ESPN: Game 7 will be what basketball is: a superstar’s game. There are two in this Finals series: Kobe Bryant and Paul Pierce. Whether it is directly by their star play or indirectly by facilitating the productivity of their teammates, by foul trouble or by an outright bad night, the NBA championship will be decided by which one of those two imposes his will longer and more effectively on the game.
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