Author: John Paulsen (Page 160 of 937)

Love ‘Em & Leave ‘Em: Week 2

PHILADELPHIA - SEPTEMBER 12: Michael Vick  of the Philadelphia Eagles walks to the sidelines during a game against the Green Bay Packers at Lincoln Financial Field on September 12, 2010 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images)

Every week, I will highlight a few players to start and a few players to sit at each position. I’m a firm believer in starting your studs, so I won’t suggest you bench Drew Brees or Adrian Peterson because they have tough matchups – just go ahead and keep them in your lineup. Instead, I’ll focus on the borderline guys – players you’ll only start under the right circumstances. It’s important to note that depending on your roster and situation, you may not be able to follow these recommendations. For example, if I suggest you bench a solid starter like Tony Romo, only do so if you have a clearly better option on your bench.

The “love ‘em” players are listed in the order that I’d start them this week.

Michael Vick showed that he still has the speed to cause headaches and with the Lions on tap, he’s probably going to have a big day… Despite missing much of the preseason due to an ankle injury, Donovan McNabb looked pretty good against the Cowboys, all things considered. This week, he has a terrific matchup with the Texans, who gave up over 400 yards passing to Peyton Manning last week. I wouldn’t expect that kind of production from McNabb, but 250 yards and a TD or two is well within reach…Joe Flacco has a big arm, and he threw for 248 yards against the Jets’ vaunted defense last week. With a much easier matchup against the Bengals coming up, he should have a very nice day…Need a sleeper? Jason Campbell threw for 180 yards and a TD against the Titans last week and even ran for 35 yards. With the Rams coming to town, he’s in line for a solid week…Need another sleeper? How about Josh Freeman, who faces a Panthers defense that struggled mightily against Eli Manning and the Giants last week?

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Why the shotgun is taking over the NFL

NEW ORLEANS - SEPTEMBER 09: Quarterback Drew Brees  of the New Orleans Saints drops back to pass against the Minnesota Vikings at Louisiana Superdome on September 9, 2010 in New Orleans, Louisiana. (Photo by Chris Graythen/Getty Images)

In the latest issue of ESPN the Magazine, David Fleming discusses why the shotgun has become so prevalent in the NFL.

For starters, the shift is proof of the influence of college football’s spread offenses. The NFL is always reluctant to give credit to its minor league affiliate (the NCAA), but you can spot a trend in the NFL when someone puts money behind it. Drew Brees, who set a league record last season with a 70.6% completion rate, actually fell to the second round of the 2001 draft because he had a reputation as a “shotgun QB” at Purdue. Cut to last April: The Rams took Oklahoma’s Sam Bradford No. 1 overall and handed him $50 million guaranteed, even though he threw just one pass from under center last season. Teams are not passing more frequently — attempts have fluctuated over the past four seasons — but they are throwing differently. From 2006 to 2009, the use of shotgun passes jumped an astronomical 24 percentage points.

That’s an interesting bit about Brees versus Bradford. Just nine years ago, Brees’ stock took a hit because he was known as a shotgun QB. This summer, the Rams took Bradford #1 even though he was exclusively a shotgun QB.

Defensive Team By Waiver Wire (DTBWW): Week 2

ATLANTA - DECEMBER 13:  Reggie Bush #25 of the New Orleans Saints is tackled by Kroy Biermann #71, Mike Peterson #53 and Curtis Lofton #50 of the Atlanta Falcons in the first half at Georgia Dome on December 13, 2009 in Atlanta, Georgia.  (Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images)

The strategy behind DTBWW is that each week you pick up a defense that is playing against a bad offense (preferably at home). And each week you get pretty good numbers out of your DT position.

Last season, my top pick averaged 9.8 fantasy points per game. My second pick averaged 9.1 and my third pick averaged 7.3. On the whole, DTBWW averaged 9.3 fantasy points per game, which equate to DT5 numbers — all for the price of a few waiver wire pickups. In 2008, my top two picks averaged DT6-type numbers. (Note: To calculate fantasy points, I use this scoring system.)

Unlike Defensive Team By Committee (DTBC), which is for those owners who prefer low maintenance teams, DTBWW strategy allows fantasy owners to virtually ignore DTs on draft day and focus on picking up an extra RB/WR flier instead.

To be eligible, defenses have to be available on the waiver wire in at least 40% of ESPN fantasy leagues.

Let’s see how my Week 1 picks fared:

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