2012 NFL Playoffs: Wildcard Weekend Preview
Bengals @ Texans, Saturday, 4:30PM ET
The biggest concern for the Bengals right now might be the fact that rookie Andy Dalton has hit a wall. He’s topped 200 yards passing in just one of his final five games and he missed practice on Wednesday after being hospitalized with flu-like symptoms. In his Week 14 matchup against Houston, he went 16-of-28 for 189 yards and one touchdown, which wasn’t enough as the Texans rallied for a 20-19 victory. For all the talk surrounding Houston’s quarterback situation this week, Dalton may be the key to this game. The Texans’ pass rush is one of the best in the league and their run defense has been stout as well. Cedric Benson was limited on Wednesday because of a foot injury and he’s also been dealing with a back issue. If the Bengals can’t get their running game going, Dalton will become the focus. Wade Phillips will surely throw a few wrinkles at the rookie in his first postseason game, so it’ll be interesting to see how Dalton responds to his biggest test as a pro. Win or lose, Dalton has had a great year and performed well beyond expectations. But for the Bengals to advance to the Divisional round, he’ll have to raise the level of his play.
Lions @ Saints, Saturday, 8:00PM ET, Saturday
The key to this game isn’t Matthew Stafford, Calvin Johnson or Detroit’s secondary. Believe it or not, it isn’t Drew Brees, Jimmy Graham or Sean Patyon either. The key to this game is Ndamukong Suh, Kyle Vanden Bosch, Cliff Avril, Corey Williams and the rest of the Lions’ defensive line. You don’t beat an elite quarterback by blitzing him on every play. You beat him by dropping defenders into coverage and rushing him with your front four. Brees, Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady – they’re all the same. They can beat a blitz because they know their respective offenses like the back of their hand and they know exactly where to go with the football to burn a defense. But like any quarterback, they struggle the most when under pressure. Granted, it’s easier said than done to only bring four down linemen on a given play. If Suh and Co. don’t reach Brees, he’ll have plenty of time to wait until his receivers get open before delivering those accurate passes of his. Plus, a big reason why Brees is so good is because his offensive line has been excellent in pass blocking this season. Opponents try to overload with blitzes because Carl Nicks, Jermon Bushrod and Jahri Evans have been immovable objects up front. But it’s gut-check time for the Lions. They certainly have enough offensive weapons to match Brees and Payton, but if they can’t bring heat using their front four then they’ll be dead upon arrival.
Falcons @ Giants, 1:00PM ET, Sunday
While most of the national focus this week is on the explosive battle in New Orleans and whether or not Tim Tebow has any magic left in that inaccurate left arm of his, this Falcons-Giants matchup might be the most even of the four Wildcard games. Both teams are built to run the football and therefore, fans may be treated to a heavy dose of Michael Turner, Ahmad Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs. But it’s been the play of Matt Ryan and Eli Manning that has gotten the Falcons and Giants as far as they are. Ryan’s 92.2 QB rating is his best in four seasons as a pro and in his last four games he has a touchdown-to-interception ratio of 10:0. Manning, meanwhile, has compiled a QB rating of 92.9 this year, which is only bested by his 93.1 mark in 2009. He also set franchise records for passing yards (4,933), attempts (589) and completions (359), and has set an NFL record by throwing 15 of his 29 touchdowns in the fourth quarter. He’s one of the biggest reasons, if not the biggest reason, that the Giants have five wins this season in which they erased fourth-quarter deficits. While Atlanta’s ability to slow New York’s pass rush will be a huge factor this weekend, this game will likely come down to the basics: penalties, turnovers, and execution (or lack thereof).
Steelers @ Broncos, 4:30PM, Sunday
With how pitiful Tim Tebow and the Denver offense looked last week at home versus Kansas City, there are plenty of NFL observers who envision a blowout this Sunday at Sports Authority Field. But as I wrote earlier this week in my “Five Questions…” piece, the Steelers aren’t exactly steamrolling into the playoffs. In their last four games Pittsburgh is averaging just over 14 points per game, which includes a 27-0 win over the hapless Rams in Week 16. It’s no coincidence that the Steelers’ offense started to struggle when Ben Roethlisberger hurt his ankle in a Week 14 victory over the Browns. But even two weeks prior to that when Big Ben was healthy, the Steelers managed just 13 points in a 13-9 win over the Chiefs. For as bad as Tebow has looked the past two weeks, Denver’s defense certainly has the capability of keeping things close, especially if the Steelers can’t run the ball without Rashard Mendenhall (season-ending knee injury). Granted, the Broncos aren’t going to win if they only manage a field goal like they did last Sunday, but this might not be the rout that many people expect.
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Posted in: NFL
Tags: 2012 nfl playoffs, Ahmad Bradshaw, Andy Dalton, Atlanta Falcons, Ben Roethlisberger, Brandon Jacobs, Cedric Benson, Cincinnati Bengals, Detroit Lions, Drew Brees, Eli Manning, Houston Texans, jimmy graham, Matt Ryan, Michael Turner, Ndamukong Suh, New Orleans Saints, NFL Playoffs, Rashard Mendenhall, Tim Tebow
Eli is absolutely the biggest reason the Giants were able to eke out 9 wins this year. His QB rating doesn’t even really tell the whole story since it’s dragged down by a couple of admittedly awful performances.
He played the whole year behind a patchwork offensive line, without two of his favorite receiving targets from the past few years, frequently without good field position because the defense was struggling and the return game is mediocre at best, often trailing because of that same struggling defense, and did against one of the hardest schedules in the NFL.
I’ve always considered myself a realist when it comes to Eli, I’m patient with him because he won the SuperBowl but I didn’t have illusions about his ability. I’m telling you, a couple performances aside he’s been amazingly good this year. If he had turned in a season performance closer to his typical year, this team would be lucky to have 6 wins.
Having said all that, I don’t think they can cover both White and Jones. Whoever Aaron Ross is covering will blow up, and the Falcons win by 10.
Sorry, also meant to mention that Eli had absolutely no run support this year to help take some of the heat off of opposing pass rushes and maybe force teams to drop extra defenders into the box.
I agree with everything you said about Eli. Without his play this season, the Giants don’t sniff the postseason.
I worry about the conservatism of Mike Smith and Mike Mularkey when it comes to the Falcons’ game plan this Sunday. If they make Turner the focus of the offense, then the Falcons will lose. That’s not a knock on Turner, but if Mularkey isn’t more aggressive in his playcalling then the Giants will win the game late. When a defense knows what’s coming, it obviously makes the offense easier to stop.
Now, if Mularkey decides to get deceptive with his formations and frees up Jones and White to make big plays, then I agree with your assessment about New York’s secondary. But outside of a quarter or two every few weeks, I haven’t seen Mularkey be aggressive in his four years with the Falcons. I mean actually attack a defense.