Month: December 2010 (Page 4 of 52)

Strength of Schedule (SOS): Week 17

What am I looking at?

Below you’ll see a table with a list of team names on the left and a list of positions (including PPR data) along the top. If a square is pink, it means that the matchup is tough. If it’s green, it means it’s a favorable matchup.

It’s important to note that this is NOT straight fantasy points allowed. I removed the bias of schedule by looking at the opponents of each defense and how they fared in their other games. For example, if a particular defense faced a series of great QBs, then that is taken into account in these tables.

How do I use SOS?

Generally speaking, I use strength of schedule as a tiebraker between two similarly ranked players. Let’s say I’m trying to decide between starting BenJarvus Green-Ellis and Cedric Benson. All else being equal, these two players are very close in my mind. But if BGE has a great matchup and Benson has a bad matchup, the choice is clear. In fact, if BGE just has a mediocre matchup while Benson has a bad matchup, I’d probably go with the Law Firm.

Be careful not to read too much into these tables. You aren’t going to bench Chris Johnson in a bad matchup unless you have a bona fide RB1 with a good matchup waiting in the wings.

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2010 Fantasy Football Awards

Now that Week 16 has come and gone, it’s time to hand out a few awards for the 2010 season. Let’s jump right in…

Most Valuable QB: Michael Vick, Eagles
While I believe that Tom Brady deserves the real-world MVP, Vick is without a doubt the top fantasy QB of the year. He finished QB1 despite missing three-plus games due to injury, and the best fantasy playoff numbers of any QB, scoring 27.1, 42.1 and 28.5, respectively.

Most Valuable RB: Arian Foster, Texans
It’s amazing to think that Foster was going in the 5th or 6th round (or even later) in fantasy drafts in late August. Through W16, Foster racked up 2,030 total yards and 16 TDs, becoming (out of necessity) one of the few every-down RBs in the league. He didn’t have the greatest fantasy playoff by his standards (321 total yards, one TD), but he dominated the competition throughout the season and none of the other top RBs had good enough playoff numbers to trump Foster’s regular season exploits.

Most Valuable WR: Roddy White, Falcons
Just like Foster, White didn’t have eye-popping numbers in the playoffs (18 catches, 187 yards, two TDs) but he didn’t lay any eggs, either. In PPR leagues, he finished 30 points ahead of the next best WR and no other top WR had a great W14-16 run to offset White’s performance in the regular season. He’ll likely be the top fantasy WR heading into next season given his age and consistency.

Most Valuable TE: Jason Witten, Cowboys
Antonio Gates was well on his way to winning this award, but a midseason foot injury knocked him out of the stretch run. Meanwhile, Witten raised his game down the stretch, posting 40-395-5 over the last five games and 25-254-4 during the three-week fantasy playoffs. In fact, I’d argue that Witten outperformed his competition during W14-16 more than any other player at any other position this season, at least in PPR formats.

Most Valuable DT: New England Patriots
The Steelers were a little better for the entire season, but the Patriots really came on down the stretch, scoring 60 fantasy points over the final four games (and 48 in W14-16). What’s funny is that a midseason swoon made the Pats available on the waiver wires in a lot of leagues, so owners who were fortunate enough to pick the NE DT up (and hold onto them), gave themselves a big boost during the fantasy playoffs.

Most Valuable K: Sebastian Janikowski, Raiders
Janikowski started the season strong, scoring 10+ in seven of his first nine games (and 6.9+ in the other two) before his bye. Over the next three games, he failed to score more than 5.0, but turned it on during the fantasy playoffs, scoring 7.0, 17.1 and 21.3 over the final three weeks of the season, finishing as the top fantasy kicker in the process. Despite all the uncertainty at QB, Janikowski was a dependable weapon this season for fantasy owners. And it just goes to show how much depth there is at kicker — he was the #14 kicker off the draft board back in August.

Biggest Surprise: Brandon Lloyd, Broncos
All due respect to Michael Vick, Peyton Hillis and Marcedes Lewis, Brandon Lloyd became fantasy’s #2 WR just one season removed from an eight-catch 2009. As the 93rd WR off the draft board, he was the definition of a waiver wire gem, finishing with 72 catches for 1375 yards and 10 TDs. I was admittedly slow to get on the Lloyd bandwagon, as I had been burned by him before (in San Francisco, and then in Washington), but those owners with short memories who managed to snag him off the waiver wire enjoyed his fine play for much of the season. He did crap the bed in W13 and W14 (totaling just five catches for 63 yards), which gave this writer a certain sense of satisfaction, but he turned it on again in W15-16, racking up nine catches for 190 yards and a TD with Tim Tebow under center.

Jaguars’ MJD, Garrard out against Texans

Less than three weeks ago the Jaguars held their playoff destiny in their own hands.

Now their season is falling apart at the seams.

According to SI.com, Maurice Jones-Drew ill probably require offseason surgery on his right knee and is likely out for the Jaguars’ important tilt against the Texans on Sunday. Considering he had a cleanup procedure done on his knee in preseason, it’s probably safe to assume that he played hurt for the first 15 weeks of the season. He was still able to gain 1,641 total yards and seven touchdowns, which is remarkable if he was injured.

Making matters worse for the Jags is that quarterback David Garrard will also be held out against Houston after having surgery on his finger. Trent Edwards will start in his place and although he’s facing a brutal Houston secondary, it’s certainly not in Jacksonville’s best interest to be starting a backup quarterback for the most important game of the season.

The Jaguars can still make the playoffs but their chances are slim to none. First and foremost, they need the Colts to lose to the Titans in Indianapolis on Sunday. They also need to beat the Texans and given the way they played last Sunday against the Redskins when they didn’t have Jones-Drew, there’s a good chance that Jacksonville will end its season on a three-game losing streak.

A team that had so much promise a couple of weeks ago, the Jaguars will probably be left to think about the season that could have been.

BCS National Championship Preview: Oregon vs. Auburn

2011 BCS Bowl Previews: BCS National Championship | Fiesta Bowl | Rose Bowl | Orange Bowl | Sugar Bowl

Date: Monday, January 10, 2011
Time: 8:30PM ET
TV: ESPN

Why Watch: You mean, besides the fact that it’s the biggest college football game of the year and that the NCAA will get to crown a mythical national champion? With the way both of these offenses can light up a scoreboard, fans should get the shootout they expect. This matchup features two of the nation’s best players in Heisman Trophy winner Cam Newton and Heisman finalist LaMichael James. If the game comes down to defense, Oregon ranks 14th in the nation in scoring and Auburn is 54th. But as teams like South Carolina, Alabama, Arkansas, LSU, Ole Miss and Georgia found out this season, Newton often saves his best for the fourth quarter. This should be quite a game and one that lives up to its hype.

Game Facts: The Tigers are 20-13-2 overall in bowl games, which ranks them as one of the best programs in the nation when it comes to postseason play. They rank 16th in all-time bowl appearances with 35, are 13th all-time in bowl wins at 20, and are tied for 22nd in all-time bowl win percentage at .600. They’ve won three straight bowl games and six out of their last seven, which includes a wild 38-35 win over Northwestern in last year’s Outback Bowl. During Mike Bellotti’s tenure as head coach between 1995 and 2008, the Ducks went to bowl games every year except the ’96 and ’04 seasons. In 2010, Oregon fell to Ohio State in the Rose Bowl, which dropped them to 1-4 all-time in Rose bowl appearances.

Key Player: Craig Stevens, Auburn.
We know that Nick Fairley can get the job done in the middle, and that Auburn can be very tough to run on because of his stout play. But Oregon attacks you on the edges and Stevens, an outside linebacker, will play a huge role in trying to stop the Ducks’ potent offense. If he can keep contain, Oregon might be in for a long day. But if he can’t, LaMichael James and Kenjon Barner will spend a lot of time running through the Auburn secondary.

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Sugar Bowl Preview: Ohio State vs. Arkansas

2011 BCS Bowl Previews: BCS National Championship | Fiesta Bowl | Rose Bowl | Orange Bowl | Sugar Bowl

Date: Tuesday, January 4 2011
Time: 8:30PM ET
TV: ESPN

Why Watch: Because this may very well be Terrelle Pryor, Daniel Herron and DeVier Posey’s final game as Buckeyes after they were suspended for the first five games of the 2011 season after receiving improper benefits. Assuming there’s a NFL season next year, you have to wonder if all three will consider forgoing their senior years at Oho State to go pro. Either way, they’ll be in uniform for the Sugar Bowl against Arkansas and for now, that’s all that matters for college football fans (or the NCAA for that matter, which didn’t want ratings to suffer by suspending OSU’s best offensive players). The Buckeyes are 0-9 against SEC teams in bowl games and will face a Razorback squad making its first BCS Bowl appearance in school history. Fans that want to see a shootout may get one, as OSU averages 39.4 points per game and Arkansas averages 37.3 PPG. But the key may be OSU’s defense, which is allowing an average of 9.5 fewer points per contest than Arkansas.

Game FactsThe Buckeyes are 19-22 all-time in bowl games and finally broke a three-game bowl losing streak last year when they beat Oregon in the Rose Bowl. They haven’t played in the Sugar Bowl since 1998, when they defeated Texas A&M, 24-14. As previously mentioned, this will be Arkansas’ first appearance in a BCS bowl game and its first trip to the Sugar Bowl since 1969, when it lost 27-22 to Ole Miss. The Hogs are 12-22-3 all-time in bowl games, which includes a 20-17 overtime win over East Carolina in the Liberty Bowl last season.

Key Player: Knile Davis, Arkansas.
We all know about Ryan Mallett and the Arkansas passing game, but the balance that Davis adds is what makes the Razorbacks especially dangerous. Despite starting just seven of Arkansas’ 12 games, Davis managed to gain 1,183 yards and score 13 touchdowns. He’s also a First-Team All-SEC selection and if he can get things going on the ground, that will open things up for Mallett in the passing game.

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