Sugar Bowl Preview: Ohio State vs. Arkansas
2011 BCS Bowl Previews: BCS National Championship | Fiesta Bowl | Rose Bowl | Orange Bowl | Sugar Bowl
Date: Tuesday, January 4 2011
Time: 8:30PM ET
TV: ESPN
Why Watch: Because this may very well be Terrelle Pryor, Daniel Herron and DeVier Posey’s final game as Buckeyes after they were suspended for the first five games of the 2011 season after receiving improper benefits. Assuming there’s a NFL season next year, you have to wonder if all three will consider forgoing their senior years at Oho State to go pro. Either way, they’ll be in uniform for the Sugar Bowl against Arkansas and for now, that’s all that matters for college football fans (or the NCAA for that matter, which didn’t want ratings to suffer by suspending OSU’s best offensive players). The Buckeyes are 0-9 against SEC teams in bowl games and will face a Razorback squad making its first BCS Bowl appearance in school history. Fans that want to see a shootout may get one, as OSU averages 39.4 points per game and Arkansas averages 37.3 PPG. But the key may be OSU’s defense, which is allowing an average of 9.5 fewer points per contest than Arkansas.
Game FactsThe Buckeyes are 19-22 all-time in bowl games and finally broke a three-game bowl losing streak last year when they beat Oregon in the Rose Bowl. They haven’t played in the Sugar Bowl since 1998, when they defeated Texas A&M, 24-14. As previously mentioned, this will be Arkansas’ first appearance in a BCS bowl game and its first trip to the Sugar Bowl since 1969, when it lost 27-22 to Ole Miss. The Hogs are 12-22-3 all-time in bowl games, which includes a 20-17 overtime win over East Carolina in the Liberty Bowl last season.
Key Player: Knile Davis, Arkansas.
We all know about Ryan Mallett and the Arkansas passing game, but the balance that Davis adds is what makes the Razorbacks especially dangerous. Despite starting just seven of Arkansas’ 12 games, Davis managed to gain 1,183 yards and score 13 touchdowns. He’s also a First-Team All-SEC selection and if he can get things going on the ground, that will open things up for Mallett in the passing game.
Odds: Ohio State -3.5
Ohio State opened as a 3-point favorite but the line has since moved up to 3.5. That’s a little surprising given the Buckeyes’ struggles against the SEC in bowl games, but the public remembers how OSU’s defense shut down Jeremiah Masoli and Oregon’s explosive offense in last year’s Rose Bowl. The public can’t like the matchup between OSU’s offense against Arkansas’ defense either. The over/under total opened at 57.5 but is now down to 56.5, presumably because bettors are buying into how the Buckeyes’ defense could stifle Mallett and Bobby Petrino’s offense.
How Arkansas can win: If its defense shows up. Arkansas was in some shootouts this season — most notably a 65-43 loss to Auburn — and we know that Petrino’s offense can score points. What we need to see is Arkansas’ defense stop a good team. The Razorbacks allowed 22.8 points per game, but that jumped to 30 points per contest against the six ranked opponents that they faced throughout the year. The good news is that the Razorbacks beat four of those six opponents, while Ohio State does not have a win against a ranked team this season.
Why Ohio State will win: Because of its defense. Mallett saw some good defenses and great defensive backs during the SEC season, but Ohio State will be the best secondary he’s seen all year. The Buckeyes were No. 4 in the country in pass efficiency defense because they can cover and get after the passer. Plus, you don’t think Pryor, Posey and Herron will be out to prove something before they’re held out of the first five games next year (assuming they return, of course)?
Prediction: Ohio State 34, Arkansas 27
Contributors: Anthony Stalter and Paul Costanzo
Follow the Scores Report editors on Twitter @clevelandteams and @bullzeyedotcom.
the suspensions were conditional that bind the players to return for a final season. I usually don’t respond to these things but I just do not see how most people that write these articles completely dismiss the relevance of strength of schedule. I am an SEC fan, and many think it is overated, however most of those examples come from the SEC east.. At the end of the year only 1 SEC west team was not top 25. Say what you want about the points given up, but you are not leveling the comparison. You do mention ARK’s 30 pts/gm combined again SIX ranked teams, but you don’t mention, ohst’s 31 pts given up against their only ranked opponent. What is told is stats (x/gm). this cant be compared, there is no way to compare the stats or talent when ohst only played wisconsin. Just look at what alabama miss st did to their big ten bowl opponents. Miss st. has 4 losses in the SEC and still beat mich by a larger margin than ohst. Ark arguably got screwed out of a win against bama and Mallet got hurt against aub. I’m not saying arkansas will win, I can’t wait for this game, but the amount of respect ohst gets in every game, poll, against the hogs, and the BCS is sketchy considering the gap in SOS. But to say what we need to see is arkansas’ defense stop a good team is laughable. Texas A&M, LSU, BAMA, South Carolina (All Ranked) all under 25 pts. With the hogs offense the only team in the country with over 3000 pass 1000 rush and 5 receivers ov er 500 yds, the defense sees a lot of time on the field especially when you consider time stoppage after incompletes. This won’t be the case in New Orleans if the last half of the season is any indication of our running game. Only two teams put up more than 25 against the hogs, auburn and miss st. and miss st was after 2 ots. I also read about the TO margin in another article. half of that margin came from the first two games where 1st team didn’t play much of the game, and the other half auburn and bama. Arkansas has the more impressive resume, I don’t see how that is argued. if arkansas played in the big ten, points scored and points against would greatly improve. Yeah, everyone is tired of hearing about the 0-9 vs the SEC, but there is a reason for that. Say what you want but for everyone to keep saying it would be an upset if arkansas wins is misinformed. It will be a good game, and I dont’ think if either team won it would be an upset.