The POTUS makes his picks…
Hard to argue with any of his picks, but I don’t think Villanova is going to the Final Four this year. Yes, their guards are good, but they’re lacking size now that Dante Cunningham is gone.
Month: March 2010 (Page 27 of 59)
Dwyane Wade said Monday he plans to talk to several free-agent friends after the season about their plans (LeBron James, Chris Bosh, Amare Stoudemire) and encourage them to sign with Miami if he stays. Miami has room for two maximum contracts — including Wade — with another $5 million or so left. Wade has expressed a preference to stay, and owner Micky Arison put the odds at 95 percent, but he won’t handicap it: “I’m not a percentage guy. I have a lot of things to think about.”
No surprise here. Wade, LeBron, Bosh and Stoudemire all know each other so once the playoffs are over — and everyone gets a sense of what LeBron is going to do — the campaigning will start. I think Wade will stay in Miami if he can get one of the three aforementioned players to join him. With a Cavs title, we could see LeBron stick in Cleveland, Bosh and Joe Johnson in New York and Wade and Stoudemire in Miami. Or Bosh and Stoudemire could swap places. If the Cavs lose in the playoffs, all bets are off.
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The NCAA Tournament starts tomorrow, so I thought it would be interesting to take a look at the first two days worth of games and compare the line with Jeff Sagarin’s ratings (that I used to make my bracket picks) and see if there were any games that stood out as good values. Here’s what I found:
The idea is that if a line differs greatly from the Sagarin line, and the Sagarin lines are accurate, then it should be a good value wager. Of the 31 games (Duke/Arkansas-Pine Bluff was off the books), 11 had lines that were within one point of the Sagarin difference between the two teams. Nine were between 1.0-2.0 points away from the Sagarin line. Eight were within 2.0-3.0 points away, two were 3.0-4.0 points away and just one was more than four points away. Here’s a look at the games that differed the most from the Sagarin line, in descending order:
Richmond (-2.5) vs. St. Mary’s
Sagarin says that the Gaels actually have almost a two-point advantage over the Spiders, so the value bet here would be St. Mary’s +2.5. My problem with this wager is that St. Mary’s has to fly cross country to Rhode Island and play at 11:50 AM PT. Every team is different, but jet lag and Circadian rhythms are tough to quantify. Playing at noon probably isn’t going to have as big of an effect as tipping-off at, say, 10 PM.
Oklahoma State (-1.5) vs. Georgia Tech
Sagarin pegs the Yellow Jackets as a 2.3-point favorite in this game, so the line appears to be “off” by almost four points. Georgia Tech +1.5 would be the value bet here, and it looks pretty solid. Freshman Derrick Favors is really coming on, so if Georgia Tech can keep its turnovers under control, they should be able to advance.
Notre Dame (-2.5) vs. Old Dominion
The Monarchs are actually a 1.0-point favorite according to Sagarin, but the Irish are playing well of late, so I wouldn’t recommend this bet. Prior to losing to WVU by two in the Big East tourney, the Irish rattled off six straight wins against Pittsburgh (twice), Georgetown, Marquette, Seton Hall and a desperate UConn team. Notre Dame is playing a slower style that suits its personnel.
California vs. Louisville (pick ’em)
Sagarin pegs the Golden Bears as 2.9-point favorites, but it’s tough to go with Cal here seeing as they have to fly cross country to Jacksonville. However, the game is at 9:45 PM ET, which might play with the Cardinals’ Circadian rhythms a bit in the second half. Most kids aren’t used to playing basketball at 11 PM at night. To the Cal players, it will seem like a 6:45 tip-off.
Purdue (-4) vs. Siena
Sagarin thinks the Boilermakers are a 6.7-point favorite, so to the computer, Purdue is the value pick here. But the numbers can’t account for the loss of Robbie Hummel, so I wouldn’t touch the Boilermakers with a 10-foot pole.
Texas A&M (-3) vs. Utah State
Sagarin only gives A&M a 0.3-point advantage, so Utah State is the value pick here. The game is in Spokane which would seem to support this wager. This one I like.
To recap, the three wagers that seem reasonable are St. Mary’s +2.5, Georgia Tech +1.5 and Utah State +3. Unfortunately, the St. Mary’s and Utah State picks go against my bracket picks. So it’s a good thing that betting on sports is illegal in most parts of the country, right?
After he ran the 40-yard dash in the 4.57-4.60 range at the scouting combine, Florida cornerback Joe Haden rebounded with a solid showing at his Pro Day, clocking a time in the mid-4.4 range according to TFY Draft Insider.
There were some pundits that thought Haden would slip in the first round after his showing at the combine, but he was dealing with a lower back sprain that no doubt factored into his slow forty time. But he apparently ran on sloppy conditions at his Pro Day and proved to scouts that he has more than enough speed to be a starting caliber corner at the next level.
In my Mock 1.0, I have Cleveland taking Haden with the No. 8 overall pick, but I think his draft status will inevitably be tied to Tennessee safety Eric Berry. The Browns have major secondary needs and if Berry falls to No. 8, I don’t think he’ll get past Cleveland. If that happens, then Haden will likely fall out of the top 10 but won’t get past the 49ers at No. 14.
If Berry is selected before then (I have him going No. 6 to the Seahawks), I believe the Browns will take Haden at No. 7 and pair him with Eric Wright, whom they believe can develop into a top 10 corner. Either way, I envision Cleveland investing their first round pick on its secondary this April.
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While he proved to be a nice surprise in 2009 by staying relatively healthy on his way to racking up 35 saves, a 3.06 ERA and a 0.91 WHIP, Rockies’ closer Huston Street is once again an injury concern for fantasy owners.
The Denver Post reports that Street felt tightness in his shoulder while recently playing catch and has been shut down indefinitely. There’s now a good chance that he will start the 2010 season on the disabled list, pending the results of a MRI. With Rafael Betancourt also sidelined due to a shoulder injury, Colorado may have to turn to Manny Corpas to close games to start of the season.
How will Street’s injury affect your draft? Well, hopefully you weren’t overvaluing him on draft day solely based on his ’09 production. He was a top 10 closer before the injury, but now you might want to avoid him altogether on draft day. And with his early struggles last year, you might want to avoid Corpas until late in your draft as well.
Given his history and current injury issues, there are plenty of other closers that will be more reliable and offer more upside than Street will. That list includes the Giants’ Brian Wilson, the Cubs’ Carlos Marmol, the A’s Andrew Bailey and the Mariners’ David Aardsma. Any one of those relievers would offer you more value than Street in your draft, with less risk.
For The Scores Report’s official 2010 fantasy rankings of relievers, click here.
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