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MLB Playoff predictions from the guy who said the Red Sox would win the World Series

Philadelphia Phillies starting pitcher Roy Halladay (L) and catcher Carlos Ruiz celebrate after Halladay’s no-hitter against the Cincinnati Reds in Game 1 of the MLB National League Division Series baseball playoffs in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, October 6, 2010. REUTERS/Tim Shaffer (UNITED STATES – Tags: SPORT BASEBALL IMAGES OF THE DAY)

My 2011 MLB season predictions were a little off this year.

I said the A’s would win the AL West and they actually finished 22 games out of first.

I said the White Sox would win the AL Central and they just traded their manager to another team, which sums up how well they did this year.

I said the Giants would repeat as National League champions and in doing so I cursed Buster Posey, Pablo Sandoval, Freddy Sanchez and the 900 other players they placed on the DL this season.

I had the Braves winning the NL Wild Card and we all know how that turned out. Yiiiiiikes.

While I did have the Phillies winning the NL East and the Yankees making the postseason as the AL Wild Card, those were gimmies. My only claim to fame was predicting the Brewers to win the NL Central, although when you have the Red Sox winning the World Series and they don’t even make the postseason you have no right to brag about anything.

So if you’re offended by my postseason predictions below, don’t be. Chances are I’ll be wrong anyway.

ALDS: Yankees over Tigers.
I don’t trust the Yankees’ pitching but I trust it more than I trust Doug Fister. Justin Verlander was the best pitcher in the American League this season but he’s had a knack for coming up short on the road throughout the years. Knowing the Yankees they’ll be down in every game of this series and figure out some way to advance. Derek Jeter will be 16-for-18 with 11 doubles and one game-winning home run or something ridiculous.

NLDS: Phillies over Cardinals.
The Phillies did the Cardinals a favor by beating Atlanta but if I were them, I would have wanted the downtrodden Braves to advance. That team would have just been happy to reach the postseason after a miserable September. Nevertheless, the Phillies’ pitching will dominate the hot-and-cold St. Louis lineup and the Cardinals’ pitching will fail them in Philadelphia. They’ve got Edwin Jackson slated to start Game 2 in that bandbox the Phillies’ call a stadium, which should work out well considering he’s a fly ball pitcher. (Read: sarcasm.)

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What would you ask for in exchange for a historic home run ball?

New York Yankees Derek Jeter stands next to Christian Lopez, the man who caught hit number 3000, at a press conference after the game against the Tampa Bay Rays at Yankee Stadium in New York City on July 9, 2011. Jeter hits career hit number 3000 with a solo home run in the third inning. UPI/John Angelillo

How great is it that Derek Jeter’s 3,000th hit was a home run? Not because a home run is one of the most exciting plays in baseball, but because it wound up being a nice metaphorical middle finger to those who have criticized him over the last couple of weeks for being a player who “just hits bloop singles.”

Of course, had he just hit a bloop single, then he wouldn’t have had to worry about whether or not he was ever going to get the ball back.

Since his historic 3,000th hit landed in the stands behind the left field wall, the ball theoretically belonged to Christian Lopez. He’s the 23-year-old Yankee fan who caught the ball and was immediately ushered into the bowels of Yankee Stadium to ask what he wanted in exchange for the piece of history. Instead of hanging onto the prized possession for a while, Lopez decided to hand deliver the ball to Jeter after meeting him in the clubhouse following the game.

Some have estimated that the ball would sell for $50,000 to $250,000 in the collectibles market. But instead of cashing in, Lopez swapped the ball for a couple of autographed bats, balls and jerseys, and the Yankees pitched in with four Champions Suite season tickets for every remaining home game this season, including the playoffs. On top of meeting Jeter and the rest of the team in the clubhouse, it was all Lopez wanted in exchange for No. 3,000.

Since Jeter hit his historic shot, I’ve had separate conversations with friends and family members regarding what they would have done with the ball. It’s been interesting to hear their responses.

Several people said they would have sold the ball to the highest bidder and wouldn’t have thought twice about it. Another said he would have done the same thing Lopez did, which was give the ball back for a chance to meet Jeter and some of the other Yankees. If they received tickets and autographs on top of that, great. But it wouldn’t have been anything they specifically asked for.

That got me thinking: What would I have done with Jeter’s 3,000th hit, or any historic home run ball that I caught for that matter? My answer is simple: I’d give it back. I wouldn’t give it back without the opportunity to visit the clubhouse, speak with the players and maybe take a handful of pictures with them, but I would give it back without trying to sell it. No question.

Ever since my father bought me my first glove and used to throw pop flys to me in the front yard, I have loved the sport of baseball. I have been a Giants fan ever since Will Clark blew me away with his smooth swing and no-nonsense attitude in the late 80s. Had I caught a historic home run that he hit, money would be the last thing on my mind. Having the opportunity to catch the ball and be a part of history, all while meeting the team and getting a few autographs, would have been enough for me. As a person who cherishes the game, just being a part of the moment would be worth its weight in gold. I would have a story and an experience that I would remember for the rest of my life.

But I’m also a diehard baseball fan. The people who I spoke with this weekend who said they would try to get as much in return for the ball as possible aren’t diehard fans, so cashing in makes sense to them. I can’t speak for him personally, but if I were to take a guess as to what fellow TSR writer John Paulsen would do, I think he would be looking to cash in as well. Baseball just doesn’t appeal to John as the NBA or NFL does, so meeting Jeter or Clark or anyone else wouldn’t carry the same weight as X amount of cash would.

And that’s not to say that anyone is right or wrong here, or that you’re a money-grubbing person because you would try and sell the piece of history. If I got my hands on a historic game-winning soccer ball, you better believe I would sell that piece of rubber and air for as much as I could. The same could be said for any NBA, golf, or NASCAR memorabilia that I caught/received/stole. Those sports just don’t have the same impact in my life as baseball does, so I certainly understand if people thought it was crazy for Lopez not to sell Jeter’s 3,000th hit. It’s all relative.

But in the wake of Jeter’s moment, let’s stick with baseball. What would you do with a historic home run ball? It doesn’t have to be Jeter’s 3,000 hit – it could be anything that you believe would be valuable to you in some way or another. Would you sell it to the highest bidder? Exchange it for autographs and a chance to meet the players? Keep it as part of your personal collection? Sell it for booze and women? There are no wrong answers here, so let them fly in the comments selection.

Jeter hit 3,000 with class

New York Yankees Derek Jeter runs the bases after hitting career hit number 3000 with a solo home run in the third inning against the Tampa Bay Rays at Yankee Stadium in New York City on July 9, 2011. UPI/John Angelillo

Derek Jeter got hit number 3,000 with a home run while going 5-5 in a victory for the Yankees. It’s a fitting end to his quest for this milestone, as he’ll go down as one of the greats of his generation.

Yahoo! Sports has a great list of the greatest Yankees of all time, and Jeter is now in the mix.

Are Yankee bosses angry with Derek Jeter?

New York Yankees shortstop Derek Jeter adjusts his cap before the start of an MLB spring training game against the Toronto Blue Jays in Tampa, Florida, in this March 23, 2011 file photo. Despite being known as a consummate winner with five World Series rings to back that up, the New York Yankees captain and shortstop has as much to prove as any player heading into the 2011 Major League Baseball season. Even as Jeter begins a campaign that should see him become the first Yankee to reach 3,000 career hits, the 36-year-old has been honing a new batting style to prove he still has what it takes after suffering through his worst year at the plate. REUTERS/Steve Nesius/Files (UNITED STATES – Tags: SPORT BASEBALL)

Buster Olney tweets that Derek Jeter’s comments in which he “essentially exonerated” teammate Jorge Posada of any wrongdoing has apparently angered his Yankee bosses.

Following this weekend’s shenanigans in which Posada removed himself from the Yankees’ lineup because manager Joe Girardi was making him bat ninth (oh, the horror!), Jeter said: “Everybody’s struggled. And if that’s the reason why he came out, then he doesn’t need to apologize. If it’s something else, then yeah, but not for that.”

If Olney’s report is accurate and the Yankees are upset over Jeter’s comments, then they need to get a clue. Jeter is still the captain of their team and he’s not going to make a situation worse by scolding one of his long-time teammates via the media. And quite frankly, his comments were rather innocent. He’s been around long enough to know that a situation like Posada’s will eventually get ironed out without him having to say much on the topic. The Yankees’ “bosses” should just let the situation die out.

What would the Yankees have rather had Jeter say? That Posada was being a selfish, stubborn player and should have acted more professional? Even if that’s what Jeter thought, saying something like that would have fueled the situation even more and caused there to be a rift in the clubhouse (which is something the struggling Yankees don’t need right now, especially after they were just swept by their most hated rivals).

I get that the Yankees don’t want Jeter “exonerating” Posada’s mistake. Posada was definitely in the wrong here, which is why he apologized. But he did apologize and that should be the end of the situation. There’s no reason to make a mountain out of a molehill and I wouldn’t be surprised if the Yankees came out and denied Olney’s report, because they look rather silly right now.

Orioles’ Showalter takes shots at Theo Epstein, Derek Jeter

Baltimore Orioles manager Buck Showalter (R) and batting coach Jim Presley talk in the dugout during the third inning of a MLB spring training game against the New York Yankees in Sarasota, Florida, March 22, 2011. REUTERS/Steve Nesius (UNITED STATES – Tags: SPORT BASEBALL)

“I’d like to see how smart Theo Epstein is with the Tampa Bay [Rays] payroll. You got Carl Crawford ‘cause you paid more than anyone else, and that’s what makes you smarter? That’s why I like whipping their butt. It’s great, knowing those guys with the $205 million payroll are saying, ‘How the hell are they beating us?’”

All right! Let’s fire this f**king season up!

Those comments were made by Orioles skipper Buck Showalter, who recently did an interview with Men’s Journal. He also took a few swipes at Derek Jeter in which he said the Yankee captain “ticks” him off.”

“The first time we went to Yankee Stadium, I screamed at Derek Jeter from the dugout,” Showalter told the magazine, according to the Bergen Record. “Our guys are thinking, ‘Wow, he’s screaming at Derek Jeter.’ Well, he’s always jumping back from balls just off the plate. I know how many calls that team gets — and yes, he [ticks] me off.”

I love it. Some readers got upset with me last year because I didn’t mind when Reds’ second baseman Brandon Phillips stirred the pot with his comments about the Cardinals. But I don’t mind stuff like this. It brings intrigue to a league that has the opportunity to regain some of its popularity back from the NFL because of the CBA mess. I respect and love the game of baseball as much as anyone (I’ve played it my entire life and someone would have to cut my limbs off to ever get me to stop), but comments like Showalter’s breathe some life into Bud Selig’s stuffy league.

What’s ironic is that Epstein would somewhat agree with Showalter’s comments. In fact, just last week Epstein told the Boston Herald that “it’s definitely easier” to win with the more money you have. But as Epstein points out, there’s more to his job then just spending John W. Henry’s money.

“It’s easy to get defensive when people attribute a lot of our success to our payroll,’’ Epstein told Borges. “To a degree they’re right, but it’s still a challenge. It’s definitely easier the more money you have, but I’m justifiably proud of what our organization has done in the draft, in scouting, in player development. The core of our roster is 26 years old, and most of them came up through the organization.”

Epstein is right. Dustin Pedroia, Jacoby Ellsbury, Kevin Youkilis, Jon Lester, Clay Buchholz, Jonathan Papelbon, Daniel Bard and Jed Lowrie all came up through the Red Sox’s farm system. It’s also important to note that Boston isn’t a big market team. They may spend like a big market team, but that’s only because the fans’ interest is so high in Baaahstin. Otherwise, Boston is actually a mid-market team.

But getting back to Showalter, whether he was trying to poke the embers in the AL East or pump up his young Orioles, it works. Baltimore may finish in fourth place again this year, but Showalter is trying to light a fire under his club’s ass. It’s time for everyone to wake up in Baltimore and maybe Showalter can be the rooster. (What? Stupid…)

The only beef I have with what he said is the part about “whipping” the Red Sox’s butts. As ESPN’s Gordon Edes points out, the Showalter-led Orioles went 3-3 against Boston last year, which hardly constitutes whipping anyone’s butts. Still, I like his spunk.

We Got Game: The MLB All-35+ Draft

If you’re anything like me, I hate it when my favorite team signs an aging veteran free agent. I’ve uttered the phrase, “Please God don’t let them sign that crusty old vet,” too many times to count.

But those “crusty old vets” hold a ton of importance to a team’s success, especially in baseball where World Series-winning rosters usually have a mixture of both youth and veteran experience. Take the World Champion Giants for example. They won because of their young pitching, but it wasn’t Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain or Madison Bumgarner who wound up holding the World Series MVP Trophy at the end. It was 35-year-old Edgar Renteria, who was cursed by the SF faithful for being yet another horrible Brian Sabean signing, but wound up being a Fall Classic hero.

Today’s media doesn’t pay enough homage to the older MLB players. In fact, when fellow TSR contributor David Medsker and I were brainstorming ideas for a new feature, the first thing I brought up was that we should do an all 24-and-younger MLB team comprised of…well the idea is pretty self explanatory.

It wasn’t until David and I exhausted that idea before he sent me an e-mail that simply read: “Has anyone done an all 35-and-over team?”

Perfect. The moment I read it I burst into laughter. Could you imagine compiling a team of players that were only 35 years or older when present day teams usually build around youth? I love it.

Unfortunately, the guys over at Off Base Percentage beat us to the punch by compiling their own 35-plus year old team, so David and I decided to actually hold a live draft in order to make two teams. (Take that OBP.)

Below is a round-by-round breakdown of our all 35-and-older MLB draft. We selected a player for every infield position, plus three outfield positions, four starting pitchers (we only had eight to choose from), three relievers, one DH and two bench spots. Once the draft started, David and I quickly developed different strategies for building our rosters, so it was interesting to see how the draft played out. Take a look and let us know if you would have gone a different route.

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2011 Fantasy Rankings: Shortstops

All 2011 Fantasy Articles | 2011 Position Rankings

Abandon hope, all ye who enter here. Shortstop is the new second base, a fantasy wasteland where only six (!) players are projected to be drafted in the first ten rounds. Six, out of a hundred. That’s bad.

New York Yankees’ shortstop Derek Jeter warms up before the Yankees take on the Texas Rangers in game four of the ALCS at Yankee Stadium on October 19, 2010 in New York. UPI/Monika Graff

“Hello. I’m Derek Jeter, and you’re not.”

Worse, only five of those players are proven fantasy performers year after year, and even that is stretching the truth until it nearly breaks. Truth be told, there is one guy in this group (Hanley Ramirez) that has held up as a reliable fantasy stud. The rest are streaky, as in ‘Will Ferrell in “Old School”‘ streaky. (Tulo, we’re looking at you.) What is a fantasy manager to do once Hanley and Troy Tulowitzki are off the board? For starters, don’t panic, and for God’s sake don’t reach. Continue to take the best guy on the board, and see if one of these guys lands in your lap.

Jose Reyes, Mets
The late, great Sparky Anderson once said, “Just give me 25 guys on the last year of their contracts; I’ll win a pennant every year.” You think he wouldn’t love to have Reyes this year, since he’s essentially auditioning for all of Major League Baseball? The Mets are so bogged down with money issues that there has even been speculation that they will have a hard time paying their players, which makes the likelihood of a contract extension to Reyes unlikely. Meanwhile, the shortstop of the Red Sox, Marco Scutaro, has a player option on his contract for next year, which the club could buy out for $1.5 million. Don’t think for a minute that Reyes doesn’t know this, and will bust his ass to get him some Carl Crawford money. Having said that, don’t bid the moon and the stars to get him. If he comes to you, great. If not, then take a look at…

Marco Scutaro, Red Sox
Reyes’ 2010 stat line was .282-83-11-54-30. Scutaro’s line was .275-92-11-56-5. Nearly identical in every category except steals, and he can be had 11 rounds after Reyes is off the board. If you play in a points league and Reyes is gone, take a deep breath, and remember that the next best thing is a mere 110 picks away. Scutaro is the textbook definition of a value pick, even if he spends the entire year in the 9-hole.

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Derek Jeter move to the outfield? It would be unprecedented.

angers Ballpark in Arlington in Arlington, Texas USA, 16 October 2010. This is the second game of the best of seven of the 2010 American League Championship Series. The New York Yankees lead the series 1-0. EPA/PAUL BUCK fotoglif764240

On Monday, Yankees’ GM Brian Cashman told the media that he could envision Derek Jeter moving from shortstop to the outfield before his new contract runs out in 2014. But as Craig Calcaterra of Hardball Talk writes, that kind of move would be unprecedented for a 37-year-old shortstop.

* Exactly 16 players who have played as many as 100 games at shortstop and 100 games in left field. None of them did both after the age of 35;

* Exactly 17 players who have played as many as 100 games at shortstop and 100 games in center field. None of them did both after the age of 35;

* Exactly 17 players who have played as many as 100 games at shortstop and 100 games in right field. None of them did both after the age of 35.

Maybe Jeter could be a utility guy who can cover the outfield from time to time, but there is no precedent whatsoever for a guy his age moving from the everyday shortstop position to an everyday position in the outfield. And no, Robin Yount — everyone’s favorite go-to guy on this subject — didn’t do it either. His last game at shortstop came when he was 28. Past the age of 30 he was an outfielder/DH with some occasional starts at first.

And that’s before you factor in Jeter’s bat, which unless he bounces back to 2009 form and stays there for the next four years, will not be stout enough to justify a position in the outfield.

I can’t see Jeter moving to the outfield either, although my reasoning is way more subjective than Calcaterra’s take.

Jeter won’t move to the outfield because he’s Derek Jeter. He’s the New York Yankees shortstop and will be the New York Yankees shortstop until he finally gives way to a protégée. For as classy as Jeter is, he still has an ego and I highly doubt he would OK a move to the outfield – even as his defensive numbers continue to decline.

I’m not suggesting that Jeter is too pompous to help his team, but for the life of me I can’t see him sauntering out to left field when his time is up at short. I could see him moving to third if the Yankees figure out what to do with Alex Rodriguez. But the outfield? Nah.

Derek Jeter re-ups with the Yankees for three years, $51 million

New York Yankees' shortstop Derek Jeter jesters to a teammate before the Yankees take on the Texas Rangers in game four of the ALCS at Yankee Stadium on October 19, 2010 in New York.   UPI/Monika Graff Photo via Newscom

While the deal isn’t official yet, WFAN’s Sweeny Murti is reporting that the Yankees and Derek Jeter have agreed to a three-year deal worth roughly $51 million. There’s also an option for a fourth year that Murti says is for less than the $17 million Jeter will get annually for the first three years.

While the back-and-forth bickering between Jeter’s camp and GM Brian Cashman was entertaining for about a week, in the end there was no way the Yankee captain was going to wear anything but pinstripes next season. The Giants got the closest to making a deal with Jeter, and all they did was pick up the phone and call his agent. That’s it. That’s as close as Jeter got to not being a Yankee.

The Bombers were generous with this deal because Jeter wasn’t going to find that kind of money on the open market. His range at shortstop is rapidly declining, he’s coming off a career-low year at the dish and he’s already 36 years old. He should be fortunate that the Yankees were willing to go as high as $51 mil.

That said, the Yankees had to overpay. Jeter has meant just as much to the organization off the field as he has on it. He’s a leader in every sense of the word and the Yankees have been able to cash in on his marketability for over a decade. They had to pony up to pay their most recognizable player since Don Mattingly.

In other Yankee news, Mariano Rivera’s new deal is for two years and $30 million. The Red Sox reportedly attempted to steal Rivera from the Yankees with a three-year offer, as did the Angels. But Mo ultimately decided to stay in New York, which is where he’ll start and finish his career.

How does Jonathan Papelbon feel right about now that Boston made a last-ditch effort to acquire Rivera? Ouch.

Could Derek Jeter wind up with the Giants next year?

August 13, 2010: Shortstop Derek Jeter  of the New York Yankees during a game against the Kansas City Royals at Kauffman Stadium in Kansas City, Missouri.

I don’t think Derek Jeter will wind up in anything but pinstripes next season. Part of me thinks that the squabbling between him, his agent and the Yankees is all for publicity purposes.

When it comes down to it, the Yankees are a billon dollar cooperation. And seeing as how they took a backseat to the Rangers and Giants in 2010, what better way to get themselves back into the spotlight than to have their GM battle their captain in the news? To suggest the Brian Cashman v. Jeter feud is all about attention might be a little shrewd on my part, but would you put it past the Bombers for concocting such a scenario?

But for a moment, let’s assume that the contract talks between Jeter and the Yankees really are heading downhill. Let’s assume that the Yankees won’t budge from their original offer of three years and $40 million and that Jeter’s camp really is crazy enough to think that any team is going to fork over $22 million a year for an aging shortstop with declining skills.

Could Jeter really wind up in the National League playing for the current World Champions?

The shoe certainly fits. The Giants need a shortstop and after their most hated rivals scooped up Juan Uribe on Monday, their options at the position are getting fewer by the day (unless they’re absolutely in love with the idea of bringing back Edgar Renteria, committing full-time to youngster Manny Burriss or signing 97-year-old Miguel Tejada). Jeter, who is represented by the same agent (Casey Close) as catcher Buster Posey, would have an opportunity to play for a contender in a decent sized market if he were to sign with San Francisco. He was also scouted by current Giants GM Brian Sabean, who was with the Yankees when the club drafted him in 1992. Sabean also doesn’t mind overpaying for players, much like he’s done with Barry Zito, Aaron Rowand and Renteria in recent years.

If all of this seems rather convenient, it’s probably because it is. I can’t imagine Jeter playing for any other team besides the Yankees and there’s good probability that the two sides will agree to a new deal by the end of the year.

But if you’re looking for a dark horse in this race, it has to be the Giants.

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