Here’s a hypothetical I was chewing on even before the news broke that Yao Ming will miss the rest of the playoffs with a broken foot: how badly are the Houston Rockets missing Tracy McGrady in their second round series against the Lakers?

Many people have argued the opposite, saying that it’s only because McGrady is out that the Rockets have made it this far. It’s a compelling argument, one that I was inclined to believe for a time myself. However, when it comes to the team’s current series against L.A., I think the Rockets are missing T-Mac desperately.

The reason is that what the Rockets lack more than anything else right now is offensive firepower: something McGrady provides in no short supply. Defensively, Houston has been excellent the entire postseason – and McGrady is no slouch as a defender himself. If T-Mac was able to stay within the confines of what’s been working for the Rockets offensively (quick point guards Aaron Brooks and Kyle Lowry getting into the lane and kicking the ball out to open shooters, Houston could have seen a major uptick in their offensive production.

But with Yao out for the playoffs, McGrady is the one player who could have possibly given the Rockets a chance to compete with L.A. With T-Mac, the Rockets could have gone small by playing him at the 2, Artest at the 3 and Shane Battier at the 4, forcing the Lakers to match them by playing Lamar Odom at the 4. Without McGrady, the Rockets will still likely go small, sometimes playing Brooks and Lowry together in the same backcourt, sometimes bringing in Von Wafer, but the impact will not be nearly the same. The lineup may not even be dangerous enough to make L.A. want to go small to match Houston’s personnel.

The real story here, however, is that in discussing Houston’s playoff potential, it is once again a “what if?” hypothetical. As J.A. Adande writes in a column for ESPN.com, Houston has to wonder how much longer it wants to bank on Yao as the centerpiece of its franchise, given his considerable injury history. He and McGrady were a dream combination on paper, but this year, as usual, they have failed to come together on the court.

By now you know that the Orlando Magic and Houston Rockets each managed to win Game 1 on the road, but what you may not know is how exactly they managed to pull those wins out.

Orlando rode a 30-17 second quarter to an 18-point lead at halftime, and led by as many as 28 (65-27) with nine minutes to play in the third quarter before the Celtics finally showed up to play. Boston whittled the lead down to four with two minutes to play, but a timely drive by Rafer Alston and four straight free throws by J.J. Redick helped the Magic hold on for the win.

Ray Allen and Rajon Rondo each went 2 of 12 from the field, so most of the Celtics’ scoring was left to Paul Pierce who finished with 23 points on 7 of 18 shooting. Boston simply wasn’t sharp; it might have been fatigue or maybe it was just one of those nights. Dwight Howard finished with 16 points, 22 rebounds and three blocks, and the C’s simply didn’t have an answer for him inside. Rashard Lewis, Hedo Turkoglu and Rafer Alston combined to shoot 17 of 45 (38%) from the field, so it’s not like Orlando was running on all cylinders, either.

Meanwhile, in L.A., the Rockets capitalized on the Lakers’ flat play. Yao Ming posted 28 points and 10 rebounds, while Ron Artest chipped in with 21 points and seven assists. But the key was the play of point guard Aaron Brooks, who outscored Derek Fisher (19 to eight) and came up with a pair of timely buckets in the fourth quarter. Along with Kyle Lowry, the Rockets have quickness in the backcourt that the Lakers can’t match unless they elect to play Shannon Brown and/or Jordan Farmar.

Shane Battier did a nice job defensively on Kobe Bryant, who scored 32 points but didn’t really get going until the Lakers were in scramble mode late in the game. He had seven points in the last 1:32, so without those makes, he was 12 of 29 (41%) for 25 points. Pau Gasol (14 points), Lamar Odom (9 points) and Andrew Bynum (10 points) all had relatively quiet games, which allowed the Rockets to spring the upset. In Artest, Carl Landry, Chuck Hayes and Yao Ming, the Rockets have one of the best defensive front lines in the league, so they have the personnel to slow down the Laker big men.

Watch Battier’s hands when he defends Kobe’s jumper. He essentially sticks his hand right in Kobe’s face, almost as if he’s about to poke Kobe in the eye. This can be distracting to a shooter, though I’m sure Bryant has seen it time and time again. Battier has the quickness and strength to keep Bryant out of the lane (most of the time, anyway) and the Rockets know they have a chance against the Lakers if they can turn Kobe into more of a shooter and less of a scorer.

Every so often, I’ll be sitting at a bar, throwing back a few adult beverages with a buddy or two and I’ll pose the following question:

If you could have one current NBA player to build your franchise around, with the goal of winning a NBA title in the next five years – who would it be?

Since the 2009 NBA Playoffs are in their infancy, it seems to be as good of a time as any to kick around this question. My criteria are simple – a franchise player has to be able to carry his team, while being reasonably young and injury-free.

We’ll count down from #10 to #1. My top nine guys were pretty easy to list, but #10 was a bitch. Maybe you can help me decide. Feel free to provide your own top 10.

HONORABLE MENTION

Yao Ming, Rockets (28 years-old)
I love Yao’s post up game, and he is a skilled passer, but the chances are only 60/40 that he’ll be healthy for any given playoffs and those odds are only going to decrease as time wears on. He’s like Robert Downey, Jr. — he’s great at what he does, but you just don’t know if he’s going to be there when you need him.

Chauncey Billups, Nuggets (32)
He seems to be more responsible than ‘Melo for the Nuggets’ great play this season, but he’s 32 years old. Still, his effectiveness depends more on strength, steady play and good shooting than it does his (somewhat limited) athleticism, so he should be able to play into his late thirties.

Al Jefferson, Timberwolves (24)
Jefferson is one of the few young, back-to-the-basket post players in the league. He averaged 23/11 on a bad team, which leads me to believe he could post 19/10 on a playoff team, and should only get better with age.

Amare Stoudemire, Suns (26)
He’s four years younger than our next guy, but he’s already had two serious injuries in his career so one wonders if this is a trend. He also seems to be a little bit on the selfish side and has a rep for being a bad defensive player.

Read the rest of this entry »

The economy is really starting to take its toll on professional sports, and the NBA is no different. Bad contracts are bad even when the economy is pumping, but they really stand out in tough times like these. So I decided to look through the payrolls team-by-team to try to identify the worst contracts in the NBA. I expected to list 15-20 names, but I ended up scribbling down 68. That’s right, there are no fewer than 68 bad contracts in the NBA.

I didn’t include any of the players that are in the final year of their contracts because…well, what’s the point? They’ll be off the books in a few months anyway. Instead, I wanted to focus on those contracts that are going to haunt teams for years to come, so to be eligible, players have to have at least a year left on their current deals.

It’s tough to compare someone making superstar money to an average, everyday role player, so I split these 68 contracts up into three groups: the Overpaid Role Players, the Not-So-Super Stars and the Injury-Prones. I will rank them from least-worst to most-worst with the thinking that I wouldn’t trade the player for anyone further down the list but I would trade him for anyone previously mentioned. So, for example, if a guy is listed #7 within a particular group, I’m not trading him for anyone ranked #6-#1, but I would think seriously about moving him for a guy that is ranked #8+.

So let’s start with the role players and go from there…

(Note: In most cases, I don’t blame the player himself for his outrageous contract. The fault lies with the general manager that inked the guy to the deal. However, this rule goes out the window if the player has a history of only producing in his contract year – I’m looking at you, Tim Thomas.)

Yes, it’s 12 days old and the trade deadline has passed, but if you haven’t had the chance to check out his annual trade value opus, it’s a good read. He ranks the top 40 players by total trade value (i.e. age, upside, salary, talent, etc.). Here’s what he has to say about Tim Duncan:

4. Tim Duncan
His finishes in the Trade Value column since 2001: No. 2, No. 3, No. 1, No. 2, No. 1, No. 3, No. 3, No. 4. Uncanny. Speaking of consistency, check out his 12 regular seasons (including this one) split into groups of three seasons …

Duncan (first three years): 22-12-3, 52 percent FG, missed eight games.

Duncan (next three years): 23-13-4, 51 percent FG, missed eight games.

Duncan (next three years): 21-12-3, 50 percent FG, missed 31 games.

Duncan (last three years): 20-11-3, 52 percent FG, missed five games.

Then, remember that he also played 155 playoff games and averaged a 23-13-4 with 50 percent shooting, plus first-class defense and leadership. And sprinkle in the little fact that no Duncan team has ever lost even 30 games in a regular season. Translation: Greatest power forward ever, most consistent superstar ever and you cannot sleep on him in May and June.

I do take issue with a few of his rankings…

Yao at #7? Too injury prone.
KG ahead of Deron Williams? Garnett is too old.
Nash at #23 (ahead of Rondo, Devin Harris, Mayo, Kevin Martin)? Seems awfully high for a 35 year-old.

There are a few others, but I’m not going to nitpick.