Tag: Tim Tebow (Page 16 of 32)

Will Quinn be the odd man out in Denver?

After the Broncos’ traded multiple picks (rather foolishly in my opinion) in order to select Tim Tebow in the first round of last week’s draft, Charles Robinson of Yahoo! Sports wonders which quarterback will likely be the odd man out in Denver.

7. Who is the odd quarterback out in Denver?
In the perfect world, Tim Tebow would be on the roster to sit and learn and develop with nonstop NFL coaching. But he has to get some snaps, too, and the No. 3 quarterback rarely ever sees those. So you can bet that Tebow is going to get an opportunity to show he can be the backup with the Denver Broncos this season. And frankly, it’s not out of the realm of possibility he could swipe the starting job. It’s unlikely, but you can’t rule it out. The one guy who seems to suddenly be on the outside looking in is Brady Quinn. He was acquired for a low price – running back Peyton Hillis and fairly meaningless late-round picks in 2011 and 2012 – and has very little starting experience. So if you are going to deprive someone of practice reps, who are you going to pick? Your veteran starter Kyle Orton, your first-round pick in Tebow, or a guy who cost you almost nothing in Quinn? Seems like an easy answer.

What I don’t get is why the Broncos traded for Quinn in the first place. I understand they didn’t give up very much for him, but the trade for Tebow in the first round was very calculated. They kept trading back in order to acquire more picks so they could then trade up to select Tebow, so obviously they had a game plan. But what is their strategy now? Orton’s contract expires at the end of the year and Quinn’s expires in 2011. So maybe they’re planning on keeping all three quarterbacks and hoping Tebow emerges as the starter in either 2011 or 2012.

Either way, Josh McDaniels and GM Brian Xanders have created a fine mess for themselves in Denver. They have one average quarterback in Orton, one below average backup in Quinn and one massive project in Tebow. As Robinson points out, if the Broncos hope to develop Tebow then they’ll need to get him reps in practice and that means making him the backup. Which makes Quinn useless.

I know the Broncos are high on Tebow, but I have a feeling that this team will be in the market for a franchise-caliber quarterback sooner than they think.


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Broncos take big risk in Tim Tebow

I’ve given it a day. I’ve tried to see it from their point of view and play devil’s advocate. I’ve allowed things to sink in and tried to look at the decision from a couple of different angles.

It didn’t help. I still have no idea what the hell the Broncos were thinking when they traded three picks in order to draft Tim Tebow with the 25th overall pick in Thursday night’s first round.

Make no mistake: the Broncos drafted Tebow to be their starting quarterback of the future, despite the fact that they traded for Kyle Orton and Brady Quinn in each of the last two offseasons. They want him to eventually become their No. 1 guy and considering what they gave up for him, he better pan out as a quarterback or else the words “epic failure” will come to mind when this trade is reviewed in the future.

Regardless of whether or not you believe Tebow can be a NFL quarterback is irreverent. The Broncos gave up three draft picks (a second, a third and a fourth) in order to select him where they did, meaning they gave up three potential starters for the former Heisman winner. Teams don’t give up that kind of compensation and deem the trade a success unless that player turns out to be special. That means if Tebow turns out to be an H-back or a Wild Card specialist, then Denver wasted three picks on a role player.

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2010 NFL First Round Recap: Head-scratchers, values, sleepers & more

That’ll do it – the first round of the 2010 NFL Draft is in the books. All in all, even the most die-hard draft fans would have to admit that the move to prime time was a success. The action was quicker, the coverage was tighter and the event was interesting throughout. I was skeptical about the new format at first, but I admit tonight was entertaining.

Below is a recap of the first round, including head-scratching moves, valuable picks and more. I also preview the second round by listing my top 5 players that are still available.

Head-Scratcher: Broncos trade three picks for Tim Tebow.
Tebow fans will certainly criticize me for this, but this was the worst draft-day trade I’ve seen in recent memory. Inexcusably, the Broncos parted with a second, a third and a fourth round selection to trade up to the 25th overall pick to take Tebow, who may or may not wind up being a quarterback at the next level. He’s the ultimate developmental project, so hopefully Denver is willing to wait three-plus years while he works on his throwing motion, his footwork and his release. And here’s the thing: if he doesn’t become a quarterback, then how bad does this trade wind up looking? Let’s say he becomes an H-back or is only used in the Wildcat, then the Broncos just traded three picks for a role player. Think about that for a second. There’s a good chance that Denver was afraid of someone else taking Tebow before they had the chance to select him in the second round. (Buffalo was apparently trying to move up as well.) But three picks in exchange for one of the biggest risks in the draft? Don’t get me wrong – Tebow is a pure football player, a winner and a worker. There’s something about him that makes you want to throw conventional wisdom out the window and predict success for him. But I can’t justify what the Broncos gave up here. It just doesn’t make sense.

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Can we predict a quarterback’s success?

In the April 19 issue of ESPN the Magazine, Peter Keating discusses a way for NFL teams to determine whether or not a first- or second-round QB will have a successful NFL career. (Insider subscription required.)

David Lewin, formerly an analyst for Football Outsiders and now with the NBA’s Cavaliers, has found that games started and NCAA completion percentage accurately predict NFL performance for QBs drafted in the first two rounds. To be more specific, the Day 1 QBs who go on to have the best pro careers complete at least 60% of their passes and start at least 37 games in college.

This theory has been around a while and when I was researching it last week, I stumbled across a similar article from 2007, so I’m not exactly sure how far back it dates.

Using college completion percentage makes a lot of sense. It seems intrinsically true that a QB that has trouble completing passes in college is also going to struggle with his accuracy in the NFL.

The number of starts is another strong stat. For a prospect to start 37 games, he basically needs to be a three-year starter. This indicates that he’s been around the block a few times, is reasonably durable and opponents have had a chance to game plan for him (and he’s still completed a high percentage of passes). It also seems reasonable to think that most good NFL quarterbacks wouldn’t have to be a backup for more than one season while in college.

Let’s take a look at the QBs selected in the first and second rounds of the ten drafts spanning from 1998-2007 to see if this theory still holds water.

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Chad Henne: Tim Tebow is not an NFL quarterback

Dolphins quarterback Chad Henne apparently isn’t a big fan of Tim Tebow.

From USA Today:

Dolphins QB Chad Henne is not among those impressed by Tim Tebow’s performance at his pro day on Wednesday.

Tebow, showing off his overhauled throwing motion to NFL talent evaluators for the first time, drew positive reviews. NFL Network analyst Mike Mayock called Tebow’s improvement “ridiculous.”

But Henne remains skeptical of the 2007 Heisman Trophy winner.
He told WQAM radio in Miami:

“My judgment is that he’s not an NFL quarterback. I’ll leave it at that.”

Last time I checked, Tebow won a Heisman Trophy and a couple of National Championships while at Florida and Henne won roughly about nothing. Well, I take that back. He did beat Tebow’s Gators in the 2008 Capital One Bowl and was the game’s MVP. So…there.

I have my own doubts about whether or not Tebow will become a quarterback at the next level. And I know that Henne showed promise last year with the Dolphins, but just because he’s won seven games in the NFL doesn’t make him a pro scout.


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