Ugh.
After going 3-1 two weeks ago, I successfully predicted a downfall last Saturday by putting forth a brutal effort. Alabama (no front door cover, Tide?), South Carolina (couldn’t hang onto that lead, Cocks?) and LSU (only 20 points at home, Tigers?) were all losers, while my only winner was Temple over Penn State (even though the Owls tried to blow that one for me late).
Here goes a better effort this week…
No. 17 Ohio State –16.5 at Illinois, 12:00PMET
Lay the points. The Buckeyes are 4-0 against the spread this year and have done it in rather easy fashion. I realize this is their first road test of the year, not to mention their first Big Ten game, but Ohio State is the far superior team and should roll. The Buckeyes haven’t lost to the Illini since 1991 and while Illinois has hung with them in recent years, it’ll be too much Terrelle Pryor this Saturday.
THE PICK: OHIO STATE –16.5
No. 11 Wisconsin vs. No. 24 Michigan State +2, 3:30PM ET
The Spartans will certainly get a lift from Mark Dantonio, who returns to the sidelines (the press box, actually) this weekend after suffering a heart attack following MSU’s overtime win over Notre Dame two weeks ago. The Spartans have rushed for over 200 yards in each of their first four games and while the Badgers have a potent rushing attack themselves, I like MSU to win outright in East Lansing. Every year the Spartans beat an opponent they’re not supposed to and while a win on Saturday would hardly be shocking, it would still be considered an upset with Wisconsin ranked 11th in the nation.
THE PICK: MICHIGAN STATE +2
Virginia Tech vs. North Carolina State +4, 3:30PM ET
I feel as though people are falling asleep on this NC State team, which is coming off impressive wins over Cincinnati and Georgia Tech the past two weekends. They don’t have a great rushing offense, but their passing game led by Russell Wilson ranks 19th in the nation and they’re averaging 37.75 points per game. After losing to Boise State and James Madison earlier in the year, VA Tech has gotten back on track with wins over East Carolina and Boston College the past two weekends. That said, there’s still something missing from this team and while Tyrod Taylor has made a ton of highlight reel plays, he leads an offense that is 87th in passing. I think NC State keeps this game within a field goal and covers.
THE PICK: NC STATE +4
No. 3 Boise State –43.5 vs. New Mexico State, 8:00PM ET
Usually I don’t even consider games that have point spreads of over 30 points because of the threat of a backdoor cover, but I always make an exception when New Mexico State is involved. As long as the Broncos don’t take their foot off the gas I could see them scoring in the 60s this weekend. The Aggies rank second-to-last in total defense among FBS teams and the Broncos can ill-afford to suffer a letdown now that they’re ranked third in the nation. Boise rolls.
THE PICK: BOISE STATE –43.5
Season Record: 4-4
