Tag: NFL predictions (Page 2 of 4)

      Fade Material: Week 11 NFL Predictions

      November 20, 2011 /
      Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Andy Dalton warms up at Sports Authority Field at Mile High on September 18, 2011 in Denver. The Broncos try to avoid their first 0-2 start in 12 years. UPI/Gary C. Caskey

      Why do you smite me NFL prediction Gods? WHY! WHY I ASK!

      For those that continue to fade me, I say nice work. I’m now 17-23 on the year after another 2-2 week (the Steelers and Patriots covered while the over in the Saints/Falcons and under in the Giants/49ers games did not) and chances are I’ll either go 0-4, 1-3 or 2-2 again this Sunday. Winning would be too much to ask apparently.

      WHY!

      Bengals @ Ravens, 1:00PM ET
      When Baltimore jumps out to a 42-point lead in the second quarter I’ll say to myself, “Yep, that makes sense.” But for now, I think Cincinnati is being undervalued while Baltimore is being overvalued. Seven points is a lot in a divisional game, especially considering how the Bengals have played all season. Yes, I know that Leon Hall and A.J. Green are out with injuries but Andy Dalton has made plays all year. Plus, and this is a biggie, Baltimore has been so inconsistent on offense that the Bengals could feasibly win this game outright. I don’t think that’ll happen, but I do like Cincy to keep it close.
      THE PICK: BENGALS +7

      Raiders @ Vikings, 1:00PM ET
      Oakland really needs this game after Denver beat New York on Thursday night making the AFC West race even tighter. The Raiders are banged up but they were banged up last week in San Diego and beat the Chargers by a touchdown. Carson Palmer needs to play mistake-free football, especially considering Minnesota’s run defense isn’t going to allow Michael Bush to run all over them like he did versus San Diego. With the spread sitting so low I like Palmer’s chances of beating the rook Christian Ponder, even through this game is at the Metrodome.
      THE PICK: RAIDERS –1

      Titans @ Falcons, 4:15PM ET
      Six points is way too much to lay with an Atlanta team that likes to keep things conservative by staying on the ground and eking out victories instead of stomping on their opponents’ chests. The Titans should be extra motivated to win now that Matt Schaub is out for the season and they have a realistic shot of winning the AFC South. With Chris Johnson coming alive the past two weeks, I think Tennessee will stick with Atlanta throughout and maybe even win outright.
      THE PICK: TITANS +6

      Eagles @ Giants, 8:20PM ET
      The Eagles are 4-0 against the spread in their last four trips to East Rutherford but I don’t trust Philly as far as I can throw Andy Reid. And I cannot throw him very far. He’s a very large man and I just can’t seem to get the leverage. Vince Young is likely starting tonight for the injured Michael Vick, which means a quarterback with zero experience running Reid’s offense during the regular season will be counted on to win the most important game of Philadelphia’s season. I don’t like the Eagles’ chances. Eli Manning is playing the best fourth-quarter football of any quarterback in the league and I like the Giants to rise up against a Philadelphia team that looked as if it quite last Sunday versus the Cardinals. Let’s up that same Eagle team shows up again tonight.
      THE PICK: GIANTS –4.5

      External Sports, NFL

      Fade Material: NFL Week 8 Predictions

      October 30, 2011 /

      It looks like I’m starting to inch closer to respectability with my NFL predictions. The Steelers, Chiefs and Broncos (by a small miracle) covered last week, while the Packers were a fourth-quarter dud against the Vikings.

      That gave me a 3-1 Sunday for Week 7, which puts me at 13-15 on the year. I need one more 3-1 effort today to get me back to .500 and then I’ll really tear things up in the second half. Just you wait and see. Oh, just you wait and see.

      Saints @ Rams, 1:00PM ET
      After they dropped 62 points on the Colts last week, I’m sure public bettors have been racing to the window to take the over with the Saints today. The Rams have allowed the second-most points this year, just behind…yup, the Colts. But 48.5 points seems way too high for me, although I understand why oddsmakers have jacked up the total given the Saints’ offensive output last weekend. New Orleans plays things more conservatively on the road and I don’t see St. Louis helping cover the over with A.J. Feeley at the helm. I like the under.
      THE PICK: UNDER 48.5

      Dolphins @ Giants, 1:00PM ET
      No matter how well Brandon Marshall tries to spin it, the Dolphins have checked out. Reggie Bush says the team stinks, while Yeremiah Bell says that Reggie Bush stinks. The funny part is that half the locker room seemingly agrees with Bush while the other half agrees with Bell. That’s not good for locker room dynamics and considering the Dolphins have to hit the road to face a well-rested New York squad, I like the G-Men to roll today. Of course, the last time I picked the Giants they lost outright to the Seahawks at home, which caused one of our loyal readers to request that I don’t pick them anymore. Sorry snd_dsr, but I’m going back to the well.
      THE PICK: GIANTS –9.5

      Lions @ Broncos, 4:05PM ET
      The Lions are a complete mess and I get three points? Sign me up! Detroit is better than Denver but Detroit also has zero running game, its quarterback is banged up and its defense can’t stop the run. Oh, and they have to travel cross-country to play a team that seemingly has new life under Tim Tebow. For at least one more week I’m going to UNLEASH THE TEBOW!
      THE PICK: Broncos +3

      Bengals @ Seahawks, 4:15PM ET
      Seattle’s quarterback situation is an abomination but no matter how ugly things can get for the Seahawks, they usually play well at home. Seattle is a tough environment for any quarterback to play in, nevertheless a rookie. Andy Dalton has certainly surpassed expectations to this point, but I think he’ll make a couple of big mistakes to cost the Bengals today. Seattle’s defense hasn’t played poorly this season and if their offense can muster double-digit points I think they win outright.
      THE PICK: SEAHAWKS +1

      External Sports, Free Picks, NFL

      Fade Material: NFL Week 7 Predictions

      October 23, 2011 /
      Fans of Denver Broncos rookie quarterback Tim Tebow hold up a sign during their NFL football game against the Kansas City Chiefs in Denver November 14, 2010. REUTERS/Rick Wilking (UNITED STATES – Tags: SPORT FOOTBALL)

      While my college picks continue to do well, a .500 record for my NFL predictions seems to be out of the question. After hitting the 49ers and Packers in the early games, the Saints were dropkicked by the Bucs and the Vikings…oh, the Vikings.

      Following my 2-2 effort in Week 6, that puts my season record at 10-14 on the year.

      Broncos @ Dolphins, 1:00PM ET
      I was one of the many who chastised the Broncos for trading back into the first round to take Tim Tebow in 2010. But now that it has become almost cliché to bag on Tebow’s abilities as a passer, I’m flat out rooting for him now. RELEASE THE TEBOW! From a performance standpoint, you can’t get much worse than the Miami defense. Their pass rush isn’t that bad but what’s the difference? They can’t stop the pass or run so teams can still pretty much do whatever they want against the Dolphins. Tebow will probably throw for 87 yards but give me two I say TWO touchdowns in a Denver victory today.
      THE PICK: DENVER BRONCOS +1

      Steelers @ Cardinals, 4:05PM ET
      Here’s the way I’m viewing this game. Pittsburgh is a 3.5-point favorite but let’s toss out the spread for a second. I ask myself, ‘Do I think the Steelers will win?’ The answer is yes. And if I believe they’re going to win, then they’re probably going to beat a bad Arizona team (which has proven it can’t finish games) by more than a field goal, right? Again, the answer is yes. (At least in my eyes.) The Steelers have been models of inconsistency thus far, but if you follow that same model then they should roll today. After the Ravens hammered them 35-7 in Week 1, the Steelers covered as 14-point favorites the following week against the Seahawks. After they lost to the Texans in Week 4, they covered easily as a 3-point favorite against the Titans in Week 5. And after they barely squeaked by the Jaguars last Sunday, I expect them to cover against Arizona. It’s science.
      THE PICK: PITTSBURGH STEELERS –3.5

      Chiefs @ Raiders, 4:05PM ET
      Every time I’m utterly confused by a point spread it usually winds up burning me in the end. The Raiders opened as 3-point point home favorites against the Chiefs when it was presumed that Kyle Boller was going to be Oakland’s starter. That makes sense. The Raiders are at home, they’re the better team and the old rule is that home field advantage is worth three points. Thus, Oakland –3. But after they acquired Carson Palmer on Tuesday and it was announced that he was playing, the line climbed a full point to 4.5. Then the damn thing jumped up to 5.5 as the public presumably hammered the Palmer-led Raiders. So what you’re telling me is that Palmer is worth a full 1.5 points? Are you kidding me? I know this isn’t the same the Chiefs team that won the AFC West last year but they are 2-0 in their last two games and 3-2 against the spread this year. They’re also coming off a bye and playing an opponent they’re incredibly familiar with (sans Palmer, that is). Plus, and this is the biggest reason why I can’t understand the line, Palmer hasn’t played in a live game since January 2. Now, after reporting on Friday that Palmer might not start, the line is back down to 3.5. Either way, give me the points. I don’t trust either Palmer nor Boller.
      THE PICK: KANSAS CITY CHIEFS +3.5

      Packers @ Vikings, 4:15PM ET
      The Packers haven’t played a full game in a couple of weeks, as they struggled in the first-half against the Falcons in Week 5 and completely took their foot off the gas in the second-half last Sunday against the Rams. That scares me, although not as much as what Aaron Rodgers is going to do in a dome against Minnesota’s brutal secondary. Even if rookie Christian Ponder plays well in his first career start, he isn’t going to keep pace with Rodgers and the Packers. I’ll probably get burned by this same Viking team that I predicted would upset Chicago last Sunday but just like the Chiefs-Raiders game, I’m not going to over-think this one. (I also love that the spread has stayed below the key number of 10.)
      THE PICK: GREEN BAY PACKERS –9

      External Sports, NFL

      Fade Material: NFL Week 6 Predictions

      October 16, 2011 /
      Green Bay Packers wide receiver Randall Cobb (L) and quarterback Aaron Rodgers (12) run off the field after their game against the New Orleans Saints at Lambeau Field on September 8, 2011 in Green Bay, Wisconsin. The Packers won 42-34. UPI/Brian Kersey

      Following my disastrous 0-4 effort in Week 4, I rallied to hit three-of-four last Sunday. The Bills, Patriots and Packers all covered while my lone loser, the Giants, had a day to forget against the Seahawks.

      That runs my sterling season record to 8-12 with a chance for .500 with a perfect Sunday today. (Ha! Perfect Sunday. Like those even exist…)

      San Francisco 49ers @ Detroit Lions, 1:00PM ET
      I’ve been knee-deep in Lions’ Kool-Aid for weeks now, but I think 4.5 points is too much for them to give up against a 4-1 Niners team that is playing extremely well defensively. Detroit is coming off an emotional win against Chicago on Monday night and while I don’t expect the Lions to overlook the Niners today, I think this is a field goal game either way. I like San Fran and the points more than I dislike the Lions if that makes sense.
      THE PICK: SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS +4.5

      St. Louis Rams @ Green Bay Packers, 1:00PM ET
      Normally double-digit dogs are safe best in the NFL. But this hasn’t been a normal year. Teams are racking up the points and we’re seeing true mismatches play out on the field. The Packers got a scare from the Falcons in the first half last week and I think that will serve them well today. The Rams may be coming off their bye but I’m pretty sure Albert Pujols and John Jay are starting at cornerback. If Rodgers doesn’t throw for over 400 yards he should be embarrassed. Embarrassed I say!
      THE PICK: GREEN BAY PACKERS –14

      New Orleans Saints @ Tampa Bay Bucs, 4:15PM ET
      The Saints make me nervous a little because this is their third-straight road game and they have a tendency to play more conservative away from the Superdome. That said, if they get rolling in this one Tampa Bay doesn’t have the offensive firepower to keep pace. I hate laying nearly a touchdown with New Orleans but the Saints are 4-1 against the spread in their last five road games against the Bucs while the road team is 13-3 ATS in the last 16 meetings between these two squads. Thus, I’m not going to over think this one.
      THE PICK: NEW ORLEANS SAINTS –6

      Minnesota Vikings @ Chicago Bears, 8:20PM ET
      I don’t trust the Bears as far as I can throw them. Probably because every time I pick them they screw me, but that’s a personal problem between them and me and I won’t get you involved. Jared Allen may have a field day against Chicago’s suspect offensive line and Jay Cutler seems to be losing faith in Mike Martz’s offense by the week. The Vikings have played better than their 1-4 record would indicate but they need to play a full four quarters if they’re going to pick up a win tonight. With the Bears coming off a short week, I think Minnesota can win with Adrian Peterson playing havoc with Chicago’s thin defensive line. (A line that won’t have Julius Peppers.)
      THE PICK: MINNESOTA VIKINGS +3

      Last Week: 3-1
      Season: 8-12

      Check out Bullz-Eye.com for a list of Sunday’s NFL Odds.

      External Sports, Free Picks, NFL

      Fade Material: NFL Week 5 Predictions

      October 9, 2011 /
      New York Giants quarterback Eli Manning calls a play at the line of scrimmage against the St. Louis Rams during the first quarter of their NFL football game in East Rutherford, New Jersey, September 19, 2011. REUTERS/Mike Segar (UNITED STATES – Tags: SPORT FOOTBALL)

      Oh, how I crashed and burned in glorious fashion last Sunday.

      I picked the Cowboys, who coughed up a 27-3 lead to the Lions.

      I had the Bears, who were covering with just over a minute to play before they allowed Cam “Backdoor Cover” Newton to waltz right down the field and score a meaningless touchdown on a fourth-and-goal with just seconds remaining.

      I had the Cardinals, who were beating the Giants with five minutes remaining in the game before losing and finally, I had the Broncos, who were promptly hammered by the Packers in Green Bay.

      For those scoring at home, that was an 0-4 Sunday, which runs my season record to 5-11 on the year. If you’re not cashing these puppies in, then I highly recommend you start doing so. The pickings don’t get any better than this…

      Eagles @ Bills, 1:00PM ET
      The Eagles’ offensive line, secondary, and run defense have struggled mightily over the last three weeks and yet Michael Vick and Co. still find themselves as 3-point road favorites in Buffalo. What a slap in the face to a good Bills team, which got a lesson in humility last Sunday in Cincinnati. Buffalo is a better team right now than Philadelphia, plain and simple. So I’ll gladly take the points with the home dog.
      THE PICK: BILLS +3

      Seahawks @ Giants, 1:00PM ET
      I’m going to eat a lot of chalk today but I don’t really mind. The Seahawks may have played well in the second half last week against the Falcons, but Atlanta inexplicably went to a shell defense in the third quarter and completely took its foot off the gas offensively. That allowed Tarvaris Jackson and the Seahawks to get back into a game they should have been blown out in. I thought Eli Manning and the Giants would suffer a letdown last Sunday in Arizona and for three and a half quarters, it looked like they would. But his New York team is playing with a ton of confidence right now and I like the G-Men to roll against a Seattle squad that is brutal on the road.
      THE PICK: GIANTS –9.5.

      Jets @ Patriots, 4:15PM ET
      I’m highly aware that the Jets went into Foxboro during the playoffs last season and beat the Patriots in impressive fashion. But Mark Sanchez and the Jets also have mystical powers that apparently only work in the postseason. During the regular season, Sanchez is liable to throw for 76 yards and two interceptions in any given game. New York can’t run the ball and has major issues on offense. If the Patriots get up big, don’t expect Bill Belichick to let up after his team was embarrassed in Buffalo after squandering a 21-0 first half lead. I think this game will be more like the 45-3 thrashing the Pats served the Jets in the regular season last year than the New England’s home playoff loss a few months later.
      THE PICK: PATRIOTS –7.5.

      Packers @ Falcons, 8:20PM ET
      This the second big mismatch on the Week 5 schedule behind Jets-Patriots. Forget the fact that the Packers went into Atlanta last year and drubbed the Falcons 48-21 in the playoffs. Green Bay is simply leaps and bounds better than Atlanta at this point in the 2011 season. The Falcons have major issues along the offensive line and Aaron Rodgers will feast on the likes of Dunta Robinson in the passing game. I think it was a bad omen that the Falcons blew a 27-7 lead last week in Seattle. They may have won the game but the coaching staff gets too predictable and too conservative once this team builds a lead. Fortunately for Mike Smith and Co, the Falcons probably won’t have too many leads come Sunday night.
      THE PICK: PACKERS –5.5

      Last Week: 0-4
      Season: 5-11

      Check out Bullz-Eye.com for a list of Sunday’s NFL Odds.

      External Sports, Free Picks, NFL

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