Tag: nfl point spreads (Page 3 of 6)

2011 NFL Week 6 Point Spreads & Odds

October 12, 2011 / Anthony Stalter

Four spreads of note:

Eagles +1 @ Redskins, 1:00PM ET
Oddsmakers have finally adjusted the spread to reflect what the Eagles are and not what everyone expected them to be. Last Sunday Philadelphia was a 3-point road favorite against the Bills, who were flat out better and had home field advantage. But this week, the Eagles are 1-point dogs against a Washington team that may not be more talented on paper, but is certainly playing better football at the moment. That said, I’m sure the public still believes that Andy Reid and Co. will eventually figure things out and I wouldn’t be surprised if this line eventually drops to a pick’em. And if it does, it’ll be interesting to see if the public once again gets burned by a Philadelphia team that is a complete mess at the moment.

Panthers +4 @ Falcons, 1:00PM ET
People are risking breaking their necks to jump off the Falcons bandwagon. Their offense is a complete mess and their offensive coordinator Mike Mularkey seems unwilling or unable to change his approach. Atlanta opened as a 5.5-point favorite for this NFC South battle, but the spread has already dropped a full point and a half. With Julio Jones’ status in doubt, the public may push the line even closer to the key number of three. Thanks in large part to Cam Newton’s passing abilities, Carolina has covered the spread in four of its first five games including four straight, which is one of the many reasons people are jumping on the Panthers this Sunday.

49ers +4.5 @ Lions, 1:00PM ET
The line opened as high as 7 for this intriguing NFC showdown between two of the bigger surprises in the NFL. But the spread has dropped like a rock with more action coming in on the 4-1 Niners. I would assume that people aren’t betting against the Lions but for San Francisco. The 49ers’ defense has been outstanding this year and the Lions are coming off a short week against a division rival, so the spread was never going to stay at a touchdown. Personally, I think the line is still too high and should be around a field goal.

Vikings +3 @ Bears, 8:20PM ET
The spread is probably set right but it’s still a little surprising that the Bears are only 3-point favorites despite having a losing record themselves. I would imagine the public will be all over Chicago, which plays significantly better at home than on the road and is taking on a Minnesota team that has struggled mightily this year. That said, if the public is all over the Bears and yet the line doesn’t move, I would be suspicious that sharp bettors are forcing bookmakers to keep the spread at 3. This will be one line that will be worth following all week.

All Week 6 point spreads:

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2011 NFL Week 5 Point Spreads & Odds

October 5, 2011 / Anthony Stalter

Five spreads of note:

Packers –5.5 @ Falcons, 8:20PM ET Sunday
The Packers return to the Georgia Dome roughly eight months after Aaron Rodgers and Co. burned it down back in January (metaphorically, of course). This line opened at 4 but is already up to 5.5 as public bettors continue to hammer the Packers, who beat the Falcons 48-21 in Atlanta during the Divisional Round playoffs last season. It’ll be interesting to see how far this spread climbs before the sharps come in and start pushing it back down. There’s no reason to believe the Falcons can hang with the Packers with the way they’ve looked in the early going, but at some point they become a value as a home dog. Will the line reach 6.5 or even 7 points?

Bears +5.5 @ Lions, 8:30PM ET, Monday
This is one of the more intriguing lines on the Week 5 schedule because it should get plenty of two-way action for sports books. The public is swarming to get a taste of that Lions Kool-Aid, but this spread is rather high for a divisional game. The Bears didn’t play well in their only road test of the season (Week 2 at New Orleans), but they’re an attractive play at 5.5. In fact, the opening line was Detroit –6 so the spread is already moving in Chicago’s direction.

Jets +9.5 @ Patriots, 4:15PM ET
Even though the Jets have looked awful the last two weeks, the road team is 18-7-1 against the number in the last 26 meetings between these two teams and you know Rex Ryan’s squad will be hyped for this one. The Patriots steamrolled the Jets 45-3 in New England last season but Gang Green returned the favor with a 28-21 victory in New York one month later. This is always an intriguing matchup and it’ll be interesting to see if the public pushes the line up to the key number of 10 or if sports books will leave the spread at 9.5 to entice plenty of two-way action.

Saints –6.5 @ Panthers, 1:00PM ET
This line is intriguing because of three reasons: 1) Cam Newton, 2) it’s a divisional game and 3) the Saints tend to play things more conservatively on the road than they do at home. While they covered last week against the Jaguars, they certainly didn’t blow them out. Now they go on the road for the second straight week to play a Carolina team that has covered the spread the past three weeks. The public seems to be backing New Orleans but Newton and the Panthers could certainly keep things close, especially when you consider that the Saints are 1-5 ATS in their last six games against Carolina.

Chiefs +1.5 @ Colts, 1:00PM ET
What do you do with this game? The Colts are 0-4 but are coming off two-straight covers despite having Curtis Painter under center. Assuming Painter holds onto the starting job (he should with how abysmal Kerry Collins looked in the early going), the Colts might be the play at –1.5. That said, the Chiefs finally got their offense going last week in Minnesota and maybe their situation has finally stabilized. With the spread highly unlikely to climb to the key number of 3, it might be best to stay far, far away from this one.

All Week 5 Point Spreads:

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Fade Material: 2011 NFL Week 4 Predictions

October 2, 2011 / Anthony Stalter

Two weeks ago I was a flaming pile of horse dung. Last week, I went 3-1 as the Raiders, Seahawks and Bears/Packers under all hit. My lone loss was the Patriots, who choked away a 21-0 lead in Buffalo.

What does all this mean? I’m ready for my first 4-0 Sunday! Or, more than likely, another 0-4 day. Either way it’ll be fun…

Lions @ Cowboys, 1:00PM ET
Something’s fishy about this line. The public is all over the 3-0 Lions, especially with how poorly the Cowboys played on Monday night in a win over the Redskins. Yet Detroit goes from +1 to +2.5 the night before the game? Give me the Cowboys, who are 7-3-1 against the spread in their last 11 games. (The home team is also 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings between these two teams.)
THE PICK: COWBOYS –2.5

Panthers @ Bears, 1:00PM ET
Cam Newton has been a big-time surprise so far but I think the Bears’ Tampa 2 will give him problems today in Chicago. That defense is designed to take away the big play, which has been a staple of Newton’s game early on. The Bears have always played better at home and I like the fact that the spread is below the key number of 7. The Bears are 4-1-1 against the spread in their last six games as a favorite, while the Panthers are 0-4-1 ATS in their last four road games.
THE PICK: BEARS –6.5

Giants @ Cardinals, 4:05PM ET
Eli Manning and the Giants looked fantastic against the Eagles last Sunday in Philadelphia, so it’s only natural that he and New York will struggle against a 1-2 Cardinals team today. This is another spread that doesn’t make much sense. The Giants opened as a 3-point favorite and despite a public backing, it’s dropped to New York –1. Kevin Kolb is familiar with the Giants’ defense from his days in Philadelphia and I think that experience will play out today in an outright Arizona victory.
THE PICK: CARDINALS +1

Broncos @ Packers, 4:15PM ET
I don’t like this spread either. The Broncos are vastly inferior to the Packers and yet the line continues to drop. The spread opened at Green Bay –13.5 and is now down to 12. Who on earth is taking Denver in this matchup? Better yet, who is betting against Green Bay? The line movement doesn’t make sense and when that happens, I like going against the grain. A week after winning an emotional back-and-forth battle against the Saints, the Packers found themselves down 10-0 to the Panthers and didn’t cover. Now they’re coming off a physical road win against a divisional opponent (the Bears) and face a non-conference team that’s 1-2. I think this one stays within 10 points.
THE PICK: BRONCOS +12

Last Week: 3-1
Season: 5-7

Check out Bullz-Eye.com for a complete list of NFL Week 4 odds.

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2011 NFL Week 4 Point Spreads & Odds

September 28, 2011 / Anthony Stalter

Keep Your Eye On: Bills –3 at. Bengals
Who would have thought that the Bills would be sitting at 3-0 and installed as a road favorite at this point in the season? This is an interesting game because while the Bengals are sitting at 1-2 on the season following back-to-back losses, they’re a lot better than people think they are. They’re at least competitive and rookie Andy Dalton isn’t a complete disaster (at least not yet anyway). The Bills are coming off an emotional win against a huge divisional rival and now have to travel this week. Believe it or not, this will be a nice test for Ryan Fitzpatrick and Co.

Primetime: Ravens –3.5 vs. Jets; Bucs –10 vs. Colts
Rex Ryan’s new team heads to his former home when the Jets take on the Ravens this Sunday night. This game figures to be a physical, hard-fought battle and it very likely features two teams that will be competing for a playoff berth in the AFC. Mark Sanchez broke his nose last week but says he’s fine. That’s more than what Ryan’s defense can say after it was steamrolled by Darren McFadden and the Raiders last Sunday. The Jets will have another tough matchup against Ray Rice this weekend…The schedule makers didn’t do the fans any favors by putting the Colts on national television in back-to-back weeks. Of course, they didn’t count on Peyton Manning not playing either. Curtis Painter actually held his own against the Steelers last Sunday night so maybe the Colts will put another competitive effort together. That said, the Bucs are coming off a huge win over the Falcons and will be playing with a ton of confidence.

Highest Point Spread: Packers –13 vs. Broncos
Although they looked rather pedestrian two weeks ago in Carolina, the Packers came out last Sunday and put together a solid effort from start to finish against their division rivals, the Bears. Now they return home where they’re 13-point favorites against a Broncos team that is searching for an identity under new head coach John Fox. Last week the Chargers failed to cover as 14.5-point home favorites against a 0-2 Chiefs team that had been outscored 89-6 in their two previous games. Thus, be careful about laying so much wood in an NFL game, although at least this spread is below one of the magic numbers in football (i.e. 14).

Lowest Point Spread: See below.
There are several 1-point spreads this week, none bigger then Lions-Cowboys at 1:00 p.m. on Sunday. The unbeaten Lions have won in a variety of ways already this year: on the road close, at home blowout, on the road come-from-behind. As they proved on Monday night against the Redskins, the Cowboys are a bit of a mess right now. They have several players banged up and Tony Romo is working with a smattering of receivers that aren’t familiar with Jason Garrett’s offense. This is a great opportunity for the Lions to get to 4-0…Other 1-point spreads include: Browns –1 vs. Titans, Vikings –1 at Chiefs, Rams –1 vs. Redskins, Giants –1 at. Cardinals.

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2011 NFL Divisional Round Odds

January 11, 2011 / Anthony Stalter

Ravens @ Steelers, 4:30PM ET, Saturday
This will be the third meeting between these two teams this season. In Week 4, the Ravens beat a Ben Roethlisberger-less Steelers in Pittsburgh, 17-14. But the Steelers got their revenge in Week 13 by beating the Ravens 13-10 in Baltimore behind Troy Polamalu’s strip of Joe Flacco late in the fourth quarter. It’s a little surprising to see oddsmakers open this game at 3.5 with the way the Ravens played last Sunday in Kansas City. One would think that they would have set the point spread at 3 and let the public play with it from there. I can’t see this line going up throughout the week. The public remembers that the Ravens should have beaten the Steelers twice this year and they tend to latch onto Wildcard teams because those teams’ performances are fresh in their memory. I bet this line closes at Steelers –3, or even –2.5.
THE ODDS: STEELERS –3.5 (36.5)

Packers @ Falcons, 8:00PM ET, Sunday
Home field advantage is usually worth three points, or so the logic goes. To see the Falcons opened at only –1.5 means one of two things: either oddsmakers believe that the Packers are the team to beat in this game or they believe that the public believes they’re the team to beat. (Or it could mean both, I guess.) Aaron Rodgers and the Pack are red-hot and the public views them as a legit Super Bowl contender. With the way James Starks ran last week, people are starting to buy into a Green Bay championship run, which means an upset this Sunday in Hotlanta. That said, the line has moved all the way up to 2.5 in the matter of 24 hours, so is Vegas getting heavy sharp action on the Falcons? It’s good to see that this matchup received the primetime spot on Saturday night because it should be the best game of the weekend.
THE ODDS: FALCONS –2.5 (45)

Seahawks @ Bears, 1:00PM ET, Sunday
It’s not surprising that the Seahawks are underdogs again but didn’t their upset of the defending champs last Sunday by them a little bit of respect? They already beat the Bears once in Chicago this year and yet they’re double-digit dogs. Neither oddsmakers nor the public (at least the majority of the public) believes that the Seahawks have two upsets in them, especially since they have to go on the road this week. But I wouldn’t be surprised if the line drops from 10 to 9.5 or even 9 by kickoff. I don’t get the sense that everyone is on the Bears’ bandwagon this year, so the public may take the points with the road dog. But if you like the Bears, it may be best to wait and see if the number comes off the all-important “10.”
THE ODDS: BEARS –10 (41)

Jets @ Patriots, 4:30PM ET, Sunday
The line opened at Patriots –9 and it almost immediately jumped to –9.5. But the spread has now dropped back to 9 so maybe Vegas is getting action coming in on both sides. It’s hard to imagine that the line wouldn’t move back up to 9.5 or even 10 by kickoff after the way the Patriots spanked the Jets 45-3 in their last meeting. But maybe Rex Ryan made believers out of people by the way he held Peyton Manning in check. In the end, I can’t see the public not backing New England and if the line stays below 10 then it would be a gift to Patriot backers.
THE ODDS: PATRIOTS –9 (45)

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Tag: nfl point spreads (Page 3 of 6)

2011 NFL Week 6 Point Spreads & Odds

2011 NFL Week 5 Point Spreads & Odds

Fade Material: 2011 NFL Week 4 Predictions

2011 NFL Week 4 Point Spreads & Odds

2011 NFL Divisional Round Odds

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