Tag: NCAA tourney talk (Page 8 of 9)

#4 Pitt sweeps season series with #1 UConn

Pitt swingman Sam Young scored 31 points to lead the Panthers in their second win this season over the Huskies, 70-60. Pitt was in control for much of the game, but UConn trimmed the lead to two (52-50) with 8:26 to play, but after a timeout, Pitt went on a 13-4 run over the next six-plus minutes to put the game away.

According to Jim Lunardi, Pitt was already projected to be a #1 seed, but this win probably clinched it for the Panthers. They have the top RPI and the 13th-toughest schedule. UConn is probably safe as well, but an early exit from the Big East Championship might give the selection committee pause, especially if projected #2 seeds Duke, Louisville, Memphis and/or Michigan State are impressive in their conference tournaments. UConn has the 5th-best RPI, but their 43rd-ranked schedule isn’t much better than Memphis (47th) and doesn’t compare to those aforementioned teams.

Upsets in the Big 12; UNC & Pitt take care of business

#5 Oklahoma visited #12 Missouri last night, and the Tigers pulled the upset, 73-64. Blake Griffin had 16 points and 21 rebounds, but turned the ball over six times in the loss. The Tigers were obviously motivated after the 25-point drubbing they took from the Kansas Jayhawks. This looks like it would have been a fun game to watch — too bad it was only on ESPN360. The network really should have a way to bring great matchups like this to a wider audience.

#9 Kansas lost to unranked Texas Tech, 84-65. Senior Alan Voskuil had 35 points on 9 of 14 shooting from long range. I’m not sure what to make of these Big 12 teams right now. Kansas and Oklahoma looked like the cream of the crop, and they turn around a lose to Texas Tech and Missouri, respectively. (In the Sooners’ defense, Missouri was the #12 team in the nation and the game was on the road.) Oklahoma was in line for a #1 seed, but it looks like they still have some work to do.

Meanwhile, #2 North Carolina fended off a feisty Virginia Tech squad, 86-78, while #4 Pitt beat #15 Marquette, 90-75. The Tar Heels earned at least a share of the ACC regular season title, though they’ll have to beat archrival Duke on Sunday to avoid sharing the honors with the Blue Devils.

#7 Duke, #10 Wake keep it going

Only those viewers lucky enough to have access to ESPN360 saw #7 Duke edge #24 Florida St. last night, 84-81. Apparently, you have to subscribe to an approved internet service provider to watch games on ESPN360. (Great. Then what the hell is my Insider subscription for?) Anyway, the win sets up an ACC regular season title game between Duke and North Carolina on Sunday. If UNC wins tonight (@ Virginia Tech), then the Blue Devils will be playing for a share of the title, but the Tar Heels lose to the Hokies, Sunday’s game will be of the winner-take-all variety.

North Carolina is still the heavy favorite, but Duke is playing a lot better of late, ever since Coach K inserted freshman guard Elliot Williams into the starting lineup five games ago. He is averaging 11.6 points, 3.0 rebounds and 1.2 steals in 31.4 minutes of play after getting just 10.6 minutes in the previous 22 games. He gives the Blue Devils more athleticism in its backcourt, which helps both offensively and defensively. If Duke were able to pull off the upset in Chapel Hill, they’d position themselves for a possible #1 seed if they could go on to win the ACC tournament. But that’s a long way off.

Elsewhere in the ACC, the Maryland Terrapins really needed a win against visiting Wake Forest to get an NCAA bid, but the Demon Deacons finished strong in a 65-63 win. ESPN bracketologist Joe Lunardi already had the Terps out of the tournament, but they had a chance to play themselves back into the conversation in a major way with home games against Duke and Wake, but they weren’t able to win either contest. Now they have to beat Virginia on Saturday (to get to 8-8 in the conference) and then make a big run in the ACC tourney with a couple of wins against the likes of North Carolina, Duke, Wake and Clemson. Good luck with that, Terps.

What does Arizona have to do to get a bid?

Joe Lunardi projects that the Arizona Wildcats would be the last team in if the season ended today. The Wildcats are 8-8 in conference and 18-11 overall. They have two remaining games — Cal, Stanford — both at home. Like most bubble teams, they have a poor record (2-4) against Top 25-ranked teams, though they are helped by their 2-1 record against Top 25 RPI teams, with wins over Kansas and Washington. They also beat Gonzaga back in December and UCLA to cap a seven-game winning streak.

So what’s the problem? Well, Arizona has 11 losses, and they’ve dropped their last three games. In their defense, those games were all on the road and two (Washington, Arizona St.) were against ranked opponents. But Washington St. was beatable and Arizona lost by 16.

A win Thursday night against Cal would probably seal the deal, though a loss against Stanford and a poor showing in the Pac-10 tournament would offset that win. It’s clear that the Wildcats still have some work to do. They need to win at least one of the next two games to stay at or above .500 in conference. If they beat Cal and Stanford, they can probably absorb a first round loss in the Pac-10 tourney. But a win or two in the tourney would obviously help.

Three Big 12 teams still have work to do

Joe Lunardi (ESPN “bracketologist”) projects four Big 12 teams to be safely in the NCAA tournament: Oklahoma, Kansas, Missouri and Texas. Three other teams — Oklahoma State, Kansas State and Texas A&M — are on the bubble.

Lunardi has Oklahoma State as a #10 seed, so they are semi-safe. The Cowboys play Kansas State tonight in a game that the Wildcats desperately need. Oklahoma State closes the season with arch-rival Oklahoma on Saturday. OSU probably just needs to win one more game to feel safe, but if the Cowboys lose three straight to close the season (KSU, OU and the Big 12 tourney opener), it may knock them out of contention. It doesn’t help their cause that they are just 1-5 against Top 25 teams, but the Cowboys’ #32 RPI (a product of the NCAA’s 11th-toughest schedule) does help.

Lunardi projects Kansas State to be one of the eight teams to just miss a berth. A win at Oklahoma State would be huge, but they definitely need a win at home against Colorado to stay alive. Whether or not they win tonight, they’re still going to have to do some work in the Big 12 tourney to punch their ticket. They are just 1-4 against Top 25 teams and they don’t have the RPI (#72) that OSU does.

The team with perhaps the longest shot at an NCAA berth is Texas A&M. The Aggies are just 1-4 against Top 25 teams and the one win was in January against Baylor, a team that has lost nine of its last 11 games (and one win was against Texas A&M). The Aggies definitely need to beat Colorado tomorrow night and they could really use a win against Missouri on Saturday along with a good performance in the Big 12 tourney.

Lunardi projects five Big 12 teams and I think that’s the right number (barring two of these bubble teams meeting in the conference tournament final). OSU has the inside track to that fifth spot, but KSU or A&M could make a push with a strong finish to the season.

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