UFC 116 Predictions

Posted by Drew Ellis (07/03/2010 @ 7:00 am)

The Ultimate Fighting Championship puts on UFC 116: Lesnar vs. Carwin tonight from Las Vegas, which features arguably the biggest heavyweight title fight in the history of the organization. Here are my thoughts on tonight’s card.

UFC Heavyweight Championship – Brock Lesnar (4-1) vs. Shane Carwin (12-0) – These two have very similar builds and styles but the key in this fight will be Lesnar’s ability to get the fight to the ground. If the fight stays standing, Carwin has the edge. Carwin should be able to stay off his back and land a big punch to earn the KO win in the first or second round. While Lesnar is a stud, he is still green to MMA and never fought someone with the power that Carwin has. Look for Lesnar to learn a big lesson tonight.

UFC Middleweight Bout – Yoshihiro Akiyama (13-1) vs. Chris Leben (20-6) – Leben deserves some credit for taking this fight just a few weeks after competing, but it should be somewhat easy for Akiyama to get him to the ground and submit him after a couple of rounds of work. Look for Akiyama to win by choke in round two.

UFC Welterweight Bout – Chris Lytle (38-17-4) vs. Matt Brown (13-8) – Both of these guys are tough as nails, but Lytle has the edge in striking technique and probably in wrestling as well. Look for him to control Brown and land some big punches to earn a decision victory in what could be Fight of the Night.

UFC Light Heavyweight Bout – Krzysztof Soszynski (20-10-1) vs. Stephan Bonnar (14-7) – This is a rematch of a bout from UFC 110 where Soszynski won when Bonnar was cut by a head butt. After some dispute, Bonnar gets his rematch, but he was losing the first fight before the cut anyway. Look for Soszynski to continue what he started and win a decision win over Bonnar.

UFC Lightweight Bout – George Sotiropoulos (12-2) vs. Kurt Pellegrino (21-4) – Sotiropoulos has emerged as a solid lightweight due to his grappling and submission skills. Pellergrino is a tough guy, but he isn’t quite at the level as his opponent. Look for this fight to spend most of the time on the ground, where George will control the fight and finish with a submission in the third round.

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UFC 105 Picks & Predictions

Posted by Drew Ellis (11/14/2009 @ 10:01 am)

The Ultimate Fighting Championship presents UFC 105: Couture vs. Vera on Saturday from the M.E.N. Arena in Manchester, England. The event will air on tape delay on Spike TV beginning at 8 p.m. and feature five bouts. Here are my picks for the five featured fights:

Light Heavyweight (205 lbs) – Randy Couture (16-10) vs. Brandon Vera (11-3) – This fight features two former heavyweights that have dropped down to light heavyweight after struggling in the larger weight class. Couture is a Hall of Fame fighter that has won multiple titles in both divisions, but has lost his last two matches. The key in this fight will be whether the fight remains standing or if it goes to the ground. Couture has the edge on the ground while Vera has the edge standing. I expect Vera to come out highly motivated and on top of his game, using his speed and extensive strikes to get the best of Couture, who seems to be lacking in the ability to control fights right now. Look for Vera to win a second or third round TKO.

Welterweight (170 lbs) – Mike Swick (14-2) vs. Dan Hardy (22-6) – This match is a No. 1 contenders match, with the winner getting to fight UFC champion Georges St. Pierre in their next match. Both fighters will look to strike as each thinks they have faster and stronger hands than their opponent. The key for this fight will be which fighter has the ability to win the battle on the ground as that is likely where it will end up in the later rounds. I like Swick’s quickness and takedown ability to earn him a decision win over the game Hardy.
Middleweight (185 lbs) – Michael Bisping (18-2) vs. Denis Kang (32-11-1) – Bisping is coming off his first knockout loss at UFC 100 and how he handles that loss will be the key in this fight. Sometimes after losing by knockout, fighters come back tentative and unwilling to mix it up for fear of getting knocked out again. Bisping has to trust his abilities in order to beat Kang, who is an experienced and well-rounded fighter. Bisping was becoming a tentative fighter prior to his KO loss, and I expect him to be the same in this fight, which will allow Kang to control the fight and earn a decision win.

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