We lost Kansas and Villanova this weekend, but the other six #1 and #2 seeds are still standing. Bracket-wise, I thought I was dead after losing my overall winner Kansas, but it turns out that if my other FF picks come in — Syracuse, Duke and West Virginia — I can still win. Come on, Mountaineers!
Jeff Sagarin’s ratings are doing pretty well across the board. In games where the favorite has an advantage of three points or more, they are 23-7. Sagarin is 4-2 in predicting winners where the favorite has a 2-3 point advantage, and is 10-2 in games where the favorite has a 0-2 point advantage. That last part is pretty impressive, and way out of Sagarin’s norm in predicting winners in the last few years.
Ken Pomeroy’s ratings are 19-4 in picking picks where he gives the winner a 70%+ chance of winning, 4-2 in the 65-70% range, 2-2 in the 60-65% range and 11-4 in the 50-60% range. Basically, the slight favorites have ended up winning a vast majority of the games, and it’s helping Sagarin and Pomeroy’s records in tight matchups.
Here’s a look ahead at the Sweet 16 games:
Michigan State vs. Northern Iowa
Line: MSU -7 (off?)
Sagarin Line: MSU -2.08
Pomeroy: MSU (51.0%)
Even before Kalin Lucas’ Achilles injury, both Sagarin and Pomeroy saw this matchup as a virtual tossup. With Lucas out, I have to think the Panthers are the favorite. They have a nice mix of shooters and big men, and are coming off of a huge win against the top overall seed in the tournament. UNI’s confidence is high and they have all the tools to beat the Spartans, who will have to go without their best player. The game is in St. Louis too, so if the Panther faithful show up, UNI could have the crowd on it side. My pick: Northern Iowa +7 and straight up
