– Steve Nash plans to wait and see what happens to the Suns’ roster before getting serious about an extension.

– Ron Artest would like to return to Houston, but if he gets an offer he can’t refuse from someone else, he’s not going to refuse it.

– The Nets have been rumored to be shopping Yi Jianlian, but Rod Thorn doesn’t see it that way.

– Before the lottery, the Grizzlies were supposedly one of the few teams to have more interest in Hasheem Thabeet than Blake Griffin, so expect Memphis to take the UConn shotblocker with the second pick in the draft.

– ESPN Insider says that the Knicks’ interest in Stephen Curry might have more to do with LeBron’s friendship with and admiration for the young man than his being the right pick for the Knicks. So they may draft Curry to have a better shot at LeBron next summer.

– It looks like Rockets owner Leslie Alexander is willing to spend. There’s never been a better time to wrestle good players from other teams looking to cut salary. The Rockets have T-Mac’s monster contract ($22.5 million) that expires next summer, which means the Rockets may be able to pull off a deal similar to the Iverson/Billups swap that the Nuggets made last year.

– The Jazz are willing to pay luxury tax to keep Paul Millsap on the roster. This could just be a smokescreen meant to dissuade other teams from making the restricted free agent an offer, but the Jazz do seem determined to re-sign the talented forward.

UConn junior Hasheem Thabeet will forgo his senior season and declare for the NBA Draft.

“After spending time with my family and friends and speaking with Coach (Jim) Calhoun, I have decided to give up my final year at UConn and enter my name in the 2009 NBA Draft,” Thabeet said via a statement. “I have had a great experience at Connecticut and cannot thank my coaches and teammates enough. I look forward to the challenge of playing professionally and know that my time here at UConn has prepared me to be successful in the future.”

The 7’3″ center averaged a double-double (13.6 points, 10.8 rebounds) and an eye-popping 4.2 blocks per game on the season. I think he has the potential to be a very good defensive-minded center (think Dikembe Mutombo). He’s pretty fluid for his size and can get up and down the court with ease. His hands seem small (as he loses the ball often when he brings it down below his waist) and his post moves need a lot of work. Like anyone with his size and natural athleticism, he’ll be as good as he wants to be.

He is a likely top 5 pick, so this decision makes sense.

3/18 Update: I’ve modified a few picks with the news that Ty Lawson may not be able to go tomorrow because of the injury to his toe. This news casts serious doubt about just how healthy he can get over the next three weeks, and I no longer see North Carolina as a Final Four team. I have modified my picks so that North Carolina loses to Gonzaga in the Sweet Sixteen. I project the Bulldogs to go on and beat Syracuse in the Elite Eight, which means that Gonzaga is now one of my Final Four teams. (I know, I can’t believe it either.)

This column is dedicated to the millions of Americans that will be filling out their March Madness brackets over the next few days.

You might be thinking — why should I bother listening to this joker?

Well, this is the third time that I’ve written this column and in the previous two seasons (2007, 2008), I successfully picked the winner both times.*

* Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

I’m still tweaking my method, but the crux of it is simple: Start with Jeff Sagarin’s computer rankings and go from there. Over the past two seasons, teams that had a 2+ point advantage in Sagarin’s “Predictor” category went a combined 82-15 (85%). That’s a good place to start. Even when the teams are closely seeded (within 1-3 seeds), Sagarin’s ratings are solid. Last year, in games that were closely seeded, teams with a 2+ point Sagarin advantage went 14-2 (88%). In 2007, they went 8-4 (67%). So over the last two seasons, that’s a combined 22-6 (79%). Not bad.

LOCATION

Last year, there were five games where tight (< 2 point) Sagarin matchups were won by teams with a distinct location advantage. Davidson beat Gonzaga in Raleigh, Mississipi State beat Oregon in Little Rock, Kansas State beat USC in Omaha, Stanford beat Marquette in Anaheim and Texas beat Stanford in Houston. In fact, there weren’t any tight matchups that were won by the team that was at a distinct geographical disadvantage. This year, I am going to make this my first tiebraker for tight Sagarin matchups.

SEED DIFFERENTIAL

Seed differential is also a consideration, as teams with a four- to nine-seed advantage win at about a 75% clip. The data for the previous 16 seasons was compiled by BostonSportsHub, but since they are no longer updating their site, I added the seed records for the 2008 tournament. Here is a summary of the 17 years worth of data.

So if Sagarin calculates that the teams are within two points, and there are no geographical considerations, then the next thing I look at is seed. If the differential is four or more, I am going with the better-seeded team barring some overriding factor. In 2008, this methodology was 2-1, winning the Oklahoma/St. Joseph and Purdue/Baylor matchups, while losing the USC/Kansas St. matchup. (Interestingly, all three winners had a slight advantage according to Sagarin, even #11-seed KSU.) Had I gone with KSU’s location advantage, this part of the system would have gone 2-0.

POMEROY RATINGS

Last season, I used Points Per Shot (PPS) to pick seven games and went 3-4. I still believe that PPS is a vital stat, but it doesn’t take into account turnovers, which is key when trying to determine just how good a team is. Ken Pomeroy has offensive and defensive efficiency stats that take into account pace and strength of schedule, and those are compiled to calculate his Pythagorean Winning Percentage.

Here’s how the last few winners were ranked at the end of the tournament in this statistic: Kansas (1), Florida (2), Florida (1), North Carolina (1) and Connecticut (2). Clearly, when picking the overall winner, we don’t want to stray too far from this ranking.

Let’s take a look at the Final Four participants for the last five years and see how they finished, keeping in mind that their final ranking does take into account how they performed during the tournament.

2008: Kansas (1), Memphis (2), UCLA (3), North Carolina (4)
2007: Florida (2), Ohio St. (4), Georgetown (5), UCLA (6)
2006: Florida (1), UCLA (3), LSU (10), George Mason (23)
2005: North Carolina (1), Illinois (2), Louisville (5), Michigan State (7)
2004: UConn (2), Georgia Tech (7), Duke (1), Oklahoma St. (3)

So, excluding the outlier (George Mason), the average Pythagorean ranking for Final Four teams over the last five years has been 3.6. I wish the site showed the pre-tourney rankings, because it would be helpful to know where these teams were ranked when they started the tournament. Since all we have to go by is where they stand now, it would seem unwise to pick a team outside of the top 10 to reach the Final Four.

I used the Pythagorean method back in 2007, and through the second round of the tournament, it had picked 37 of 48 winners. I stopped using it at that point, and I’m not sure why. This year, I’ll keep track of its accuracy throughout the end of the tourney, though I think it’s important to use the static, pre-tourney rankings because that’s all we have to go by when we fill out our bracket.

We’ll see how much I use this statistic as we dig into the bracket.

So, without further ado…

Read the rest of this entry »

It’s funny how draft stock doesn’t always have a whole heck of a lot to do with how good a player is. For example, take the two big-name big men in tonight’s Pitt/UConn matchup. One guy is projected to go as high as #2 in some mock drafts and the other is supposed to be a mid- to a late-first round pick. One guy is 7’3″, long and athletic and is one of the nation’s best shot blockers. The other is an undersized power forward who is maybe 6’7″ if you’re feeling generous. How did these to players perform tonight? One guy scored 22 points and grabbed 23 rebounds and the other managed just five points and four boards.

Who’s who? Well, the 7’3″ Hasheem Thabeet is projected to go in the top 5 in most mock drafts and he was thoroughly outplayed by 6’7″ strongman DeJuan Blair. In fact, Blair is so strong that he nearly broke Thabeet’s arm early in the first half (an event which was captured in the above picture).

The game was a back-and-forth affair until late in the second half. With 3:11 to play and the game tied, 61-61, Levance Fields made the first of back-to-back three pointers to put the Panthers up six. He went on to hit four straight free throws to put the Huskies away. The Panthers upended the Huskies, 76-68.

Sam Young — another NBA prospect — led the Panthers with 25 points, hitting 4 of his 6 three-pointers. A.J. Price posted 18 points and eight assists.

The key to beating UConn is to limit Thabeet’s impact on both ends of the court. Pittsburgh kept him from dunking and he was just 3-6 from the free throw line. On the other end of the court, Blair was very physical with the big man, pushing him back underneath the basket before using a plethora of post moves to finish at the rim. It’s hard to block shots when the offensive player is pushing you back, and that’s exactly what Blair did tonight.

Another #1 falls. Pittsburgh is a tough team and they won’t be an easy out come March.

Hasheem Thabeet raised some eyebrows earlier this season when he talked some trash about Notre Dame’s Luke Harangody.

Thabeet got off the best line, which was prominently displayed on the Mag’s cover for the world to see. Asked who he thought were the toughest big men in college, Thabeet said, “Nobody’s better than me, only more experienced. I played Luke Harangody and he was not tough. Tyler Hansbrough? I don’t see nothing.”

The 7’3″ Thabeet didn’t play particularly well against the Irish — nine points, 11 rebounds, five blocks and three turnovers — and he allowed Harangody to rack up 24 points and 15 boards, but the rest of the Huskies picked up the slack and pushed #3 UConn to a 69-61 win, which broke #19 Notre Dame’s 45-game home winning streak.

The game was back-and-forth until about nine minutes remaining in the second half when the balanced Huskies went on a 13-1 run to put the game away. Harangody didn’t get any offensive help. The Irish shot 33% from the field, but Harangody accounted for 10 of Notre Dame’s 25 made field goals. His teammates shot a woeful 28% from the field, and just 26% from long range. The key was Kyle McAlarney; he hit his first three three-pointers, and proceeded to miss his next 12 shots. Ouch.

From an NBA perspective, Harangody is the better player right now, but Thabeet is the better prospect. He is much better defensively than he is offensively. He is weak with the ball, often having it stripped or losing it when going up for a shot. At 7’3″ he was clearly bothering Harangody on defense, but Thabeet still allowed him to score 24 points. In the NBA, Thabeet will be as good of a player as he wants to be. Based on his comments about his competition, he clearly doesn’t have much respect for the opposition, but the big question is — will he be willing to put the work in to become a NBA star?

As for Harangody, I’m not sure what kind of NBA player he will make. He’s 6’7″ and is kind of a tweener at the forward position. He could be a David Lee type, but he doesn’t quite have Lee’s athleticism and seems a little slow getting up and down the court. His jumper is ugly but effective and he is able to score in a multitude of ways. However, I just don’t see an NBA team allowing him to have the freedom to be the creative scorer he is in college.

Currently, NBADraft.net has Thabeet projected to go #2 overall, while they don’t even project Harangody to be drafted. If I were an NBA GM, I’d definitely want to take a look at Harangody and see how he fares against NBA competition. One thing’s for sure — he’s a hard worker that parlayed limited athleticism and gritty determination into the Big East Player of the Year as a sophomore last season. I think he could have a successful career as a bench player in the NBA.