Listen in as Anthony Stalter and I discuss all of the Week 10 happenings, including the DeAngelo Hall release, Brady Quinn’s first start, the Denver and Baltimore running games, and Larry Johnson’s possible return to action. I also throw out a few waiver wire quarterbacks that would be good pickups this week.
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(The opening and closing music is Devo’s “Girl U Want“)
I’ve been beating this drum on our weekly fantasy football podcasts, but Michael Turner doesn’t run well against teams with good (or even mediocre) run defenses. That may seem intuitive, but he really doesn’t run well against good run defenses. Take a look at his first eight games. (The opposing team’s rank in average rush yards per game is in parenthesis.)
Week 1 – DET (31st): 220 yards, 2 TD
Week 2 – TB (13th): 42 yards
Week 3 – KC (32nd): 104 yards, 3 TD
Week 4 – CAR (14th): 56 yards
Week 5 – GB (27th): 121 yards, TD
Week 6 – CHI (6th): 54 yards
Week 8 – PHI (8th): 58 yards
Week 9 – OAK (30th): 139 yards
So against the Lions, Chiefs, Packers and Raiders (average rank: 30th), Turner posted an average of 146 yards rushing (5.7 ypc) and 1.5 TD. Against the Bucs, Panthers, Bears and Eagles (average rank: 10th), he rushed for an average of 53 yards (2.8 ypc) and zero TD. (Home versus away doesn’t seem to be much of a factor because he has had big games on the road – GB and OAK – as well as at home.)
What does this mean going forward? Well, here is Turner’s upcoming schedule:
Week 10 – NO (18th)
Week 11 – DEN (26th)
Week 12 – CAR (14th)
Week 13 – @ SD (16th)
Week 14 – @ NO (18th)
Week 15 – TB (13th)
Week 16 – @ MIN (2nd)
Week 17 – STL (29th)
Turner has a great matchup in Week 11 against the Broncos, but that enticing matchup against the Rams in Week 17 doesn’t really help most fantasy owners since the playoffs generally wrap up in Week 16. The Panthers and Bucs have already proven they can shut him down, while the Minnesota matchup in Week 16 is especially worrisome assuming the Vikings don’t lose their stud defensive tackles to suspension. That leaves two games against the Saints and one game against the Chargers, two teams that are mediocre against the run. And Turner hasn’t done particularly well against mediocre run defenses.
I just traded Turner away in one league because I’m not optimistic about his chances over the second half of the season. I packaged him with Larry Fitzgerald and Kellen Winslow for Marion Barber (whom I believe will get back on track once Tony Romo is back under center), Donald Driver and Antonio Gates. I feel like I’m getting an upgrade at RB and TE for a downgrade at WR. Since I also have Reggie Wayne, Dwayne Bowe, Wes Welker and DeSean Jackson at wideout, I feel like I can afford to lose Fitzgerald.
Depending on your league’s trade deadline, you may want to think about selling high on Turner as well. He might post good numbers this week against the Saints and he’ll probably run wild against the Broncos in Week 11, so I think he’ll have his highest value after that game. Of course, that won’t help you if your trade deadline is before then.
Post all of your fantasy questions here.
Every week, I highlight a few players that you should target in waivers. I use the ESPN league data when filtering players, so the only players eligible for discussion here are those that are available on the waiver wire of at least 50% of ESPN’s leagues. I’ll list each player’s percentage-owned after their name so you have an idea of how available they are in leagues around the country. I’ll always try to mention a few players that are available in 90% of leagues for those of you in 12-team leagues or leagues with big rosters. I’ll rank them in the order I’d pick them up in a league with a high-performance, PPR scoring system.
QUARTERBACKS
Gus Frerotte (29.9)
Frerotte has been a fringe fantasy starter since he took over in Minny. Three touchdowns against the Texans doesn’t hurt.
Sage Rosenfels (1.3)
In eight games where he attemped 20+ passes, he averaged 220 yards and 1.9 TD. He’s a borderline starter as long as Schaub is out.
Brady Quinn (9.9)
It’s official. He’s taking over for Derek Anderson. He’s worth a pickup for teams in need of QB help.
Joe Flacco (20.3)
Ryan Fitzpatrick (8.2)
Tyler Thigpen (5.4)
Byron Leftwich (0.4)
With Ben Roethlisberger sidelined, Leftwitch could be in for a few nice games.
Shaun Hill (6.1)
For desperate owners, it’s worth rolling the dice on a QB in Mike Martz’s system.
Kerry Collins (21.6)
JaMarcus Russell (36.3)
Seneca Wallace (4.8)
Brooks Bollinger (0.4)
RUNNING BACKS
Clearly, if Tim Hightower is somehow available in your league, you should definitely add him. It looks like he’s the new RB1 in Arizona. Likewise, Kevin Smith seems to be the best option in Detroit.
Cedric Benson (44.1)
Benson is the clear RB1 in Cincy and that’s worth something.
Jamaal Charles (8.6)
With Kolby Smith sidelined and Larry Johnson on the shelf, Charles is the current RB1 in KC.
Derrick Ward (50.5)
Ward continues to produce in limited touches spelling Brandon Jacobs. If Jacobs were to ever go down, Ward would blow up.
Kevin Faulk (49.1)
The best New England option for fantasy owners in PPR leagues.
Ray Rice (30.6)
With McGahee sidelined, Rice got most of the work, though LeRon McClain got the goal line carries.
BenJarvus Green-Ellis (42.1)
Ryan Torian (31.6)
Three carries for one yard isn’t encouraging, but the entire Denver running game struggled against the Dolphins.
Ricky Williams (48.3)
Maurice Morris (26.3)
He’s back in a timeshare with Julius Jones.
Pierre Thomas (30.0)
With a possible Deuce McAllister suspension looming and the pending return of Reggie Bush, Thomas’ value is very much up in the air.
Rudi Johnson (40.9)
Ahman Green (28.3)
Shaun Alexander (16.8)
He appears to be the main backup to Clinton Portis, who has been dinged up of late.
LaMont Jordan (6.7)
He has a chance for some work with Sammy Morris out, if he could only get healthy.
WIDE RECEIVERS
If Derek Mason or Kevin Curtis are out on your league’s waiver wire, they’re worth a pickup, especially in PPR leagues.
Greg Camarillo (29.9)
He’s putting up WR3-quality numbers in PPR leagues.
Rashied Davis (20.2)
He has posted double figures in PPR leagues over the last four weeks.
Steve Smith (13.0)
Matt Jones (34.7)
He’s playing great right now. Too bad he’s about to be suspended.
Amani Toomer (36.4)
Josh Morgan (14.4)
Michael Jenkins (7.8)
If teams focus on Roddy White and Matt Ryan continues to develop, Jenkins would be worth owning in bigger leagues.
Ike Hilliard (24.9)
Bobby Wade (9.1)
Prior to last week’s 3-16 effort, he had posted four straight 10+ games in PPR leagues.
Mark Clayton (6.8)
TIGHT ENDS
I’d grab Greg Olsen, Bo Scaife, Jeremy Shockey, Heath Miller, Tony Scheffler and Zach Miller before moving on to this list.
Kevin Boss (24.2)
Is the light finally going on? Two TD in the last two games says “yes.”
Visanthe Shiancoe (48.4)
Shiancoe has been more involved since Frerotte took over at QB.
Billy Miller (11.3)
Keep an eye on Jeremy Shockey this week. If he still isn’t fully participating in practice, Miller could be a steal off the waiver wire in PPR leagues.
Donald Lee (38.4)
Vernon Davis (36.6)
Will the Mike Singletary incident light a fire under the young TE?
Marcedes Lewis (27.3)
Desmond Clark (7.3)
Dependable fill-in type who is bound to catch 2-4 passes each game.
Dustin Keller (21.6)
Alex Smith (20.0)
Robert Royal (9.7)
Todd Heap (40.7)
Simply stated, he’s been a huge bust this season. He must have slept with Joe Flacco’s girlfriend.
David Martin (29.6)
Sage Rosenfels needs to warm up that arm. According to Fox Sports’ Jay Glazer, Matt Schaub will miss at least a month with an injured knee.
Texans quarterback Matt Schaub has a torn MCL and will likely miss at least a month if the team decides not to place him on injured reserve, multiple sources told FOXSports.com.
Schaub had an MRI Monday morning that confirmed the severity of the injury. The injury was sustained on a hit by Vikings Pro Bowl defensive end Jared Allen in the Texans’ 28-21 loss to Minnesota.
Sage Rosenfels will take over as Houston’s starting QB.
Schaub was having a pretty decent season. In the four games prior to the team’s loss to the Vikings, Schaub threw for an average of 308 yards and 2.3 TD. He missed five games last season due to a shoulder injury, so now one has to wonder if he’s simply an injury-prone player.
Fantasy owners should make a move for Sage Rosenfels. Despite a horrid fourth quarter against the Colts in Week 5, Rosenfels has played pretty well over the past couple of seasons in Schaub’s absence. In the eight games over the last two seasons that he has attempted 20+ passes, Rosenfels has thrown for an average of 220 yards and 1.9 TD. Not bad for a waiver wire pickup.
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