Tag: fantasy football strategy (Page 62 of 80)

Fantasy football teams are like a-holes, everyone’s got one…

I actually have 11.

Back in September, I explained why I decided to join so many leagues. I like to spread the risk around and once I joined multiple leagues, I quit sweating the minute-to-minute stuff and can actually enjoy the games.

A few years ago, I went in as a co-owner on a big money team at Antsports. The other owner, Joe, is a former co-worker of mine whose fantasy football expertise I respect. Neither of us lets the other get too high or too low on any particular player, and when one of us wants to hold a grudge against a guy like Chris Chambers or Lee Evans, the other is the voice of reason (or in Chambers’ case, the voice of confirmation).

We did pretty well in that big money league but the competition was fierce and we lost our second round pick to injury, so we finished in third place. It was a decent payday, but we thought it might be better to spread the risk around amongst several $50 leagues. We also liked the Antsports “victory points” format which awards two points for a win, two points for the top four point-scorers and a point for the #5-#8 point-scorers. Under a VP format, even if your team has the bad luck of having teams go off against it on a regular basis, you can still make the playoffs.

So this season we joined six $50 leagues and two $100 leagues at Antsports. They were all email drafts, which are slow enough so that if a pick comes up that we’re conflicted about, we have time to get on the phone and discuss it. Like most fantasy football leagues, the drafts are the most fun. I’d wager that over the course of those eight email drafts that we pretty much discussed every meaningful fantasy player in the league. Also, once the drafts are done, we split up the day-to-day operations so that we don’t have to discuss every single roster move or transaction.

In those eight leagues, our teams are a combined 54-34 (.614). While that’s not an awe-inspiring record, it includes one team that has had horrible luck (i.e. most points scored against, by far) and has a 2-9 record. So, without that team we’re winning at a 68% clip.

Of course it’s not fair to simply eliminate your worst team when talking about a combined record, so let’s talk about that unlucky team for a minute. Ironically, this was the team that Joe and I felt best about coming out of the draft. It was the only league where we had a pick in the top five. In fact, we had the #1 overall pick, so we were excited about drafting LaDainian Tomlinson there. While he is currently RB8, he hasn’t had the kind of season we were expecting. Still, he’s not the problem. At 2.12 and 3.01, we drafted Ryan Grant and Torry Holt, and I think it’s safe to say that both players have underperformed. Our fourth round pick, Ben Roethlisberger, has also been disappointing, so even good/solid picks at 5.01 (Calvin Johnson), 6.12 (Chris Cooley), 7.01 (Donald Driver) and 8.12 (Jay Cutler) couldn’t save this team.

Through 11 weeks, that team has 1,076 points, which is 9th in the league, so we should be fighting for a playoff spot instead of dwelling the cellar. Oh well, there’s always the consolation bracket!

In the other seven leagues, we drafted all over the back half of the first round. We drafted #6 twice (Barber, Gore), #8 once (Addai), #9 once (Barber), #10 twice (Gore, Portis) and #12 once (Brady). Clearly, that Brady pick didn’t pan out, and Addai has been pretty spotty all season, but those two teams are currently in first and second, respectively. In the Brady league, we also drafted Aaron Rodgers (11.12), which totally saved us, while the Addai team also features Rodgers (12.05), Reggie Bush (2.05), Anquan Boldin (3.08) and Dwayne Bowe (5.08).

Of those seven teams, four are currently in first place and one is in second. The other two teams are fighting for a playoff spot and are currently in sixth and seventh. (These are all 12-team leagues, so six teams go to the playoffs.)

I also have three teams on my own. One is in a league that Joe and I started several years ago that is made up of a few friends and friends of friends. It’s a 12-team keeper league and each season we get to carry four players (and sometimes one prospect) over to the next season. I was fortunate to win that league last season and am doing pretty well (8-3) this season.

This season, I was determined to try an auction league so I got into some random $125 league with a guy on the internet. Sounds shady, I know, but everything’s on the up and up. I am currently in third place with a 7-4 record and would be 8-3 if not for boneheadedly benching Matt Cassel last week for Phillip Rivers. (You know, the week Cassel threw for like 400 yards and three scores, while Rivers had his first bad game in forever? Grr.) I actually had Cassel in my lineup and took him out on Thursday afternoon deciding that Rivers has just been too good to bench. (It’s a two-QB league, so I’ve been making do with Rivers, Cassel and Matt Ryan.) Anyway, I feel pretty good about that team heading into the playoffs. I just made a trade – Michael Turner, Larry Fitzgerald and Kellen Winslow for Marion Barber, Donald Driver and Antonio Gates – which looked pretty bad last week, but given Winslow’s shoulder injury, it’s starting to look a little better. Turner has a brutal playoff schedule and I had a lot of depth at WR (Reggie Wayne, Wes Welker, Dwayne Bowe, DeSean Jackson), so I figured Barber will return to his man-eating ways once Romo gets back into the swing of things.

Finally, I’m in an Industry Insiders League hosted by the Fantasy Sports Writers of America. My team is 7-4 and its 1431 points is the fourth-best out of 48 teams, which were split into four 12-team divisions. The playoffs start this week and it’s a total points format, but each team starts with their season average, so I have a little bit of an advantage over 12 of the 15 other teams that made the postseason. Even if my team takes a giant dump over the next month, I feel pretty good about making the playoffs given the stiff competition.

I was in 10 leagues last year, so 11 was no real shock to my system. Since I spend so much time researching fantasy football, I figured why not put that research to my advantage? Once all these leagues are complete, I’ll update everyone on how we did. For now, I’m pretty content with my 76-45 overall record, even if Chris Chambers managed to screw me in one league…when will I learn?

Love ‘Em & Leave ‘Em: Week 12

Every week, I highlight a few players to start and a few players to sit at each position. I’m a firm believer in starting your studs, so I won’t tell you about how Drew Brees or LaDainian Tomlinson has a tough matchup – just go ahead and start them. I’ll focus on the borderline guys – players you’ll only start under the right circumstances. It’s important to note that depending on your roster and situation, you may not be able to follow these recommendations. For example, if I suggest you bench a solid starter like Tony Romo, only do so if you have a clearly better option on your bench.

The “love ‘em” players are listed in the order that I’d start them this week.

LOVE ‘EM

QB: Jason Campbell faces the Seahawks, who are 31st in the league against the pass (265 yards, 1.5 pass TD per game), so he should be in store for a nice day…Brady Quinn has a great matchup with a Houston defense that is tied for third in most passing TD allowed on the season. Quinn had a great first start, but didn’t throw a TD against the Bills last week. I’d feel more confident in this play if Kellen Winslow is healthy enough to play…Gus Frerotte faces a Jaguars defense that has allowed the 2nd most passing TD in the league. Frerotte has been a solid fantasy QB since he took over in Minnesota but many fantasy owners are still scared to use him..Kerry Collins has posted good fantasy numbers in the last two games as teams try to gang up on LenDale White and Chris Johnson. This week, he faces a Jets defense that has allowed 240 passing yards and 1.4 pass TD per game…Jeff Garcia faces a Detroit defense that is 23rd in the league against the pass. They played pretty well against the Panthers last week, but on the season the Lions have been dreadful.

RB: Matt Forte (@ STL), Marshawn Lynch (@ KC), Marion Barber (vs. SF) and LaDainian Tomlinson (vs. IND) all have great matchups and should be in your starting lineup…Jamal Lewis faces a Houston defense that has yielded an average of 133 rushing yards and 1.5 rush TD per game this season. He has had a rough schedule thus far, but he should be able to find the endzone this week…It’s always dicey starting a Denver running back, but Peyton Hillis seems to be Mike Shanahan’s current favorite and he has a great matchup with the Raiders’ 30th-ranked rush defense…With Earnest Graham on IR and Cadillac Williams working his way back, Warrick Dunn is a sleeper this week against a Lions rush defense that gave up more than 200 yards to the Panthers last week. They’re so bad that they’ve overtaken the Chiefs as the worst rush defense in the league.

WR: The Giants pass defense is pretty good on the whole, but they’ve given up some points to wide receivers, so don’t think about benching Anquan Boldin or Larry Fitzgerald…Santana Moss has been spotty at times, but give him a start this week against the Seahawks, who have given up the second most yards in the passing game this season…Given the Jaguars propensity to give up pass TD (18 on the season), Bernard Berrian should be in lineups this week even though he’s been quiet the last couple of games…Plaxico Burress has only 10 catches in the last four games, but the Giants will need him against a Cardinals team that should put up some points. It doesn’t hurt that Arizona has given up a league-leading 19 pass TD on the season…Greg Jennings is a no-brainer this week against the Saints, but try to find room for Donald Driver in your lineup as well, assuming he’s able to practice this week…Antonio Bryant should start this week as he faces a Lions defense that has allowed some big games to receivers this season…Andre Johnson is a weekly must-start, but Kevin Walter is also startable against a Browns pass defense that is 19th in the league…Torry Holt has had a rough season, but he has an outside shot at a big game against a Bears defense that has struggled against the pass.

LEAVE ‘EM

QB: Matt Ryan has been solid this season, especially for a rookie, but this week he faces the 5th-ranked Panthers pass defense that has yielded an average of 185 yards and 0.8 TD per game, so Ryan may find the going rough…Minnesota’s pass defense isn’t that great yardage-wise (21st-ranked), but they have only given up eight TD in 10 games, so the odds are against David Garrard having a multiple-TD day…I’d leave Matt Hasselbeck on the bench another week. The 10th-ranked Redskins pass defense has been solid all year and Hass didn’t look that great in his first game back…They’re still startable, but Phillip Rivers and Brett Favre have tough matchups against the Colts and the Titans, respectively, so lower those expectations…If you’re desperate, don’t turn to the likes of Daunte Culpepper (vs. TB) or Ryan Fitzpatrick (@ PIT) as neither guy has a good (or even decent) matchup.

RB: I’d try to stay away from Cedric Benson this week as he faces the #1-ranked Pittsburgh rush defense…Kevin Smith also has a bad matchup against a Bucs defense that has only given up ONE rush TD all season…Julius Jones may be getting most of the carries in Seattle, but with the Redskins’ 5th-ranked rush defense coming to town, he’s not a good start this week…Sammy Morris seems like he’s all the way back, but the Dolphins have the league’s 9th-ranked rush defense, so I wouldn’t expect a big game…These guys are still startable, but they have bad matchups so adjust your expectations accordingly: Tim Hightower (vs. NYG), Michael Turner (vs. CAR), Brandon Jacobs (@ ARI, assuming he plays) and Brian Westbrook (@ BAL).

WR: While Roddy White is pretty much a must-start every week, I wouldn’t start Michael Jenkins as the Falcons face a pretty tough Carolina pass defense…None of the Jacksonville receivers are worth starting this week. The Minnesota pass defense may give up some yards, but they have only allowed eight pass TD all season…I’d leave Vincent Jackson and Chris Chambers on the bench this week. The Colts pass defense has been excellent this season…It’s not the week to gamble on any of the Seattle wideouts. The Washington pass defense is in the top 10 in both yards and TD allowed…They’re still startable, but lower your expectations for the Jets’ and Saints’ WRs, who face the Titans and Packers, respectively.

DTBWW

Welcome to the world of Defensive Team By Waiver Wire (DTBWW). Each week, you pick up a defense, usually playing at home against a bad offense. And each week, you get pretty good numbers out of your DT position. All teams are available in at least 40% of ESPN fantasy leagues.

This week’s picks:

DAL (vs. SF)
DEN (vs. OAK)

(I feel a LOT better about Dallas than I do Denver.)

Last week’s picks:

Dolphins: 15 PA + 6 SK = 8 fantasy points
49ers: 16 PA + 4 SK + 2 INT + 1 FR = 9 fantasy points

DTBWW got back on track this week.

Fantasy Football Podcast: Week 12

Listen in as Anthony Stalter and I discuss the Chargers/Steelers debacle, Brandon Jacobs’ knee, Deuce McAllister’s possible suspension, the Tampa Bay running game, and much, much more. I’ll also throw out a few QB and RB sleepers for fantasy owners in need.

Click here to listen to the podcast.

The opening and closing music is AC/DC’s “It’s a Long Way to the Top (If You Want to Rock & Roll)”

Waiver Wire Watch: Week 12

Every week, I highlight a few players that you should target in waivers. I use the ESPN league data when filtering players, so the only players eligible for discussion here are those that are available on the waiver wire of at least 50% of ESPN’s leagues. I’ll list each player’s percentage-owned after their name so you have an idea of how available they are in leagues around the country. I’ll always try to mention a few players that are available in 90% of leagues for those of you in 12-team leagues or leagues with big rosters. I’ll rank them in the order I’d pick them up in a league with a high-performance, PPR scoring system.

Please note that these rankings are for total value through the end of the year. Players with particularly good matchups this week are in bold.

QUARTERBACKS

I’d pick up Matt Cassel and Tyler Thigpen before moving onto the list below. Jeff Garcia and Brady Quinn also have nice matchups this week. I’d probably pick them up after Frerotte.

Gus Frerotte (32.3)
He has a great schedule down the stretch that includes JAX, DET and ARI.
Matt Hasselbeck (47.8)
He was rough in his first week back, but he has as much upside as anyone on this list.
Kerry Collins (22.1)
519 yards and five TD over the last two weeks is nothing to sneeze at. Plus, he has four pretty good matchups in the next four weeks – NYJ, DET, CLE and HOU. You wouldn’t want to start him Week 16 however (PIT).
Shaun Hill (21.8)
He’s averaging 215 yards and 2.0 pass TD over the last two games, plus he had a rush TD to boot. He has a nice stretch run in Weeks 14-16 against the Jets, Dolphins and Rams.
Joe Flacco (42.8)
Sage Rosenfels (30.6)
JaMarcus Russell (25.8)
Ryan Fitzpatrick (6.8)
Daunte Culpepper (12.4)
I have no idea why Detroit isn’t looking at Drew Stanton right now, but Culpepper is a starting QB, so he does have some value.

RUNNING BACKS

If Warrick Dunn, Sammy Morris, Justin Fargas or Derrick Ward are out there on your waiver wire, they’d be worth a pickup. Dunn will benefit from Earnest Graham’s absence, Morris is working his way back into the starting lineup and Fargas is already there. Brandon Jacobs had a precautionary MRI on his sore knee, so Ward has an outside chance to see his stock rise significantly over the next week or two.

Peyton Hillis (13.3)
He’s the closest thing that the Broncos have to a RB1 right now.
Cedric Benson (47.3)
Antonio Pittman (14.0)
Steven Jackson will be out for at least another week, maybe longer.
Pierre Thomas (19.4)
He was very productive on 20 touches this week, but if Reggie Bush comes back, Thomas’ value will take a hit.
Selvin Young (40.2)
If he can just get healthy, he would see some serious work in the Denver backfield.
Carnell Williams (24.9)
There’s no telling when (or if) Caddy will be able to help, but he’s practicing some now, so there’s a chance that he could split time in the Tampa Bay backfield.
Ahmad Bradshaw (23.8)
He’d see his value rise if Jacobs were to miss any time.
Tatum Bell (23.0)
Clifton Smith (1.0)
He’s a darkhorse to get some carries with Earnest Graham out and Cadillac Williams working his way back.

WIDE RECEIVERS

Ted Ginn is owned in just over 52% of ESPN leagues and he’s starting to put up some consistent fantasy numbers, especially in PPR leagues.

Justin Gage (12.5)
He finally put two good games together (8-194-3 over the last two weeks). Has Kerry Collins finally found a “go to” WR?
Michael Jenkins (26.5)
He is quietly developing into a bona fide WR2 in Atlanta. He has a rough matchup this week, but things look solid down the stretch.
Mark Bradley (20.1)
After three straight 15+ fantasy point games (in PPR leagues), I would have liked to have seen more out of him against the Saints, but he posted just 3-54. He has 21 catches in his last four games.
Deion Branch (9.2)
4-54 in his first game back with Hasselbeck leads me to believe that he might be a worthwhile add in bigger leagues.
Jason Hill (2.2)
In the last three games, Hill has caught 12 passes for 153 yards and a TD.
Devin Hester (45.0)
He had a rough game against the Packers, but most wideouts don’t fair very well against Charles Woodson and Al Harris. His schedule over the next four weeks is much better.
Rashied Davis (30.7)
See “Devin Hester” above.
Antwaan Randle El (42.0)
Washington has nice matchups over the next two weeks.
Bobby Wade (6.3)
He has caught at least three passes in eight of 10 games this season, and last week he went for 2-12-1.
Bryant Johnson (13.6)
If you’re digging deep at WR, Johnson has caught 10 passes in the last three games.
Bobby Engram (33.5)
Will he and Hasselbeck get back into the swing of things?
Shaun McDonald (4.2)
He has caught 18 passes over the last four weeks.

TIGHT ENDS

Dustin Keller (27.1)
14 catches for 194 yards and a TD over the last two games is no fluke. He’s becoming Favre’s safety-valve over the middle.
Zach Miller (48.6)
Miller has gained at least 42 yards in six of the last seven games.
Donald Lee (40.6)
Lee has three TD in the last six games and has caught at least two passes in eight of the Packers’ 10 games.
Todd Heap (48.6)
After a horrible start, Heap has eight catches over the last two weeks. If Derrick Mason misses anytime with his shoulder injury, Heap could – repeat, could – become a bigger part of the Baltimore game plan.
Matt Spaeth (0.8)
Spaeth has 12 catches in the last two weeks filling in for Heath Miller. He’s a viable start in PPR leagues.
L.J. Smith (22.9)
Smith has six catches for 51 yards and a TD in the last two games.
John Carlson (44.4)
Carlson is averaging 3.0-28-0.3 over the last six games.
Marcedes Lewis (27.8)
Vernon Davis (34.3)
Don’t look now, but Davis has a consecutive-games-with-a-TD streak going.
Ben Watson (19.4)
His 8-88-1 outing against the Jets was probably a fluke.

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