Tag: fantasy football strategy (Page 53 of 80)

To start with Round 1 (and see the scoring system and roster requirements), click here.

My team so far: 1) Chris Johnson, 2) Steve Smith, 3) Ronnie Brown, 4) Marshawn Lynch, 5) Santana Moss

At 5.08, I passed on Philip Rivers hoping that he’d be there at 6.05. Unfortunately, this is how the round went: 61) Bernard Berrian, 62) Chris Henry, 63) Santonio Holmes, 64) Philip Rivers

I hate it when the guy I want goes just before I’m about to pick him!

Oh well, I had to move on. I felt like I was pretty safe with the four TEs — Chris Cooley, Greg Olsen, Owen Daniels and Kellen Winslow — still out there, and thought that one would be there with my next pick. There were a few WRs — Hines Ward, Antonio Bryant, Jerricho Cotchery — that I felt might last until the 7th round as well. While there is always a lot of depth at QB, I like to use QBBC as more of a backup option than as a Plan A, and with three good QBs here — Tony Romo, Donovan McNabb and Kurt Warner — I decided to take a closer look at all three players.

Despite his faults, Romo has been a fantasy stud the last two seasons. He’s without Terrell Owens this season, but that might be a blessing in disguise as the TO headaches and distractions are gone as well. Roy Williams never really got going last season, so if he can produce at 80-90% of Owens’s rate, the other Dallas wideouts can pick up the slack. Jason Witten is one of the best fantasy tight ends in the game and Patrick Crayton, Sam Hurd and Miles Austin (and don’t forget Marion Barber and Felix Jones) round out a better-than-competent receiving corps. The bottom line is that Romo has averaged 2.1 TD over the last two seasons and I don’t think losing Owens is going to take a huge toll on that number.

So, when comparing Romo to McNabb (who missed 15 games over the last four seasons) and Warner (who is not the most durable QB, either), I felt that Romo was the safest pick of the three and had legitimate upside.

Round 6, Pick 5: Tony Romo, QB

The rest of Round 6 went this way: 66) Kurt Warner, 67) Donald Driver, 68) Thomas Jones, 69) Donovan McNabb, 70) Felix Jones, 71) Jay Cutler, 72) Matt Schaub

Click here to see all of my round-by-round picks.

To start with Round 1 (and see the scoring system and roster requirements), click here.

My team so far: 1) Chris Johnson, 2) Steve Smith, 3) Ronnie Brown, 4) Marshawn Lynch

Heading into Round 5, I had already drafted three RBs, so I was definitely looking to draft a QB, TE or WR with my next pick. Antonio Gates and Tony Gonzalez went in the late fourth and early fifth, respectively, so TE wasn’t really an option at 5.08.

Here’s how the first part of Round 5 went: 49) Chad Ochocinco, 50) Tony Gonzalez, 51) Derrick Ward, 52) Larry Johnson, 53) Dallas Clark, 54) Joseph Addai, 55) Anthony Gonzalez

This left a group of WRs — Santana Moss, Braylon Edwards, Santonio Holmes — and a QB, Philip Rivers, to consider at 5.08. As I looked at the rosters of the teams drafting after me, I noticed that a couple already had a QB but they all still had plenty of need at WR. There were a few other WRs that I’d like in the 5th or 6th round — Hines Ward, Jerricho Cotchery and Antonio Bryant — that I was targeting in the next round, but didn’t feel great about any of those guys as my WR2.

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To start with Round 1 (and see the scoring system and roster requirements), click here.

My team so far: 1) Chris Johnson, 2) Steve Smith, 3) Ronnie Brown

Heading into Round 4, I knew that the league’s 2 RB, 1 flex starting lineup would allow me to start 3 RB every week, so I had plenty of options at 4.05.

Here’s how the round started off: 37) T.J. Houshmandzadeh, 38) Aaron Rodgers, 39) Knowshon Moreno, 40) Jason Witten

I was surprised to see how all three of the other RBs I was considering at 3.08 — Ryan Grant, Marshawn Lynch and Reggie Bush — were available at 4.05. Had I known that this was going to happen, I might have gone with Tom Brady at 3.08. But the league’s starting requirements allowed me to capitalize on the value that I feel dropped to me in the fourth round.

Of the three, Bush is the most productive on a per game basis in PPR leagues, but he has missed 10 games over the past two seasons and just isn’t as dependable as the other two guys. I ran the numbers for Grant and Lynch, and Grant has averaged 14.1 ppg since he became the starter in Green Bay while Lynch has averaged 15.1 ppg in his two seasons in the league. Lynch is more involved in the Buffalo passing game, so that helps his overall numbers.

Then there’s the whole three-game suspension thingy, which is the reason that Lynch is available in the fourth round in the first place. Otherwise, he’d likely be a late first round or early second round pick. Last year, we saw two players — Steve Smith and Brandon Marshall — see their stock fall in the preseason due to suspension and proceed to light it up once they returned. Marshall finished as WR4 after missing the first game and Smith finished as WR10 after missing the first two.

I took a closer look at the schedules of Grant and Lynch and found that Lynch had a distinct advantage over the last 13 games. Buffalo has two tough rushing matchups in the first three weeks, so that leaves a decisively easier schedule over the remainder of the season. In fact, Lynch projects to face the second easiest schedule of any running back over that span. This, combined with Grant’s struggles last season and Lynch’s overall superior productivity, convinced me to draft the Buffalo RB at 4.05. Sure, I’ll have to burn a middle round pick on Lynch’s backup (Fred Jackson), but I think it’s worth it to lock up Lynch after his suspension is over. (Let’s not forget that he’s one of the scariest-looking guys in the league.)

Round 4, Pick 5: Marshawn Lynch, RB

The rest of the round went like this: 42) Vincent Jackson, 43) Reggie Bush, 44) Ray Rice, 45) Eddie Royal, 46) Antonio Gates, 47) Ryan Grant, 48) DeSean Jackson

I think Grant is a great value at 4.10, and had I known that he’d be available there, I might have pulled the trigger on the aforementioned trade in the third round. I’m not entirely sure who I would have taken at 3.03, as Wes Welker and Clinton Portis were both gone by then. My top three players probably would have been Pierre Thomas, Dwayne Bowe and Ronnie Brown, and I ended up with Brown at 3.08 anyway.

Click here to see all of my round-by-round picks.

To start with Round 1 (and see the scoring system and roster requirements), click here.

Heading into Round 3, I had Chris Johnson and Steve Smith on board, and felt that I got off to a pretty good start. The first decision I had to make was to turn down a trade offer from the team with the 3.03 pick. He wanted to move back in the third, up in the fourth and up in the sixth. I considered moving up to grab Wes Welker, Clinton Portis or Ronnie Brown at 3.03, but both Welker and Portis went, and I didn’t feel strongly enough about Brown to give up my position in the fourth round.

In other words, there were enough players that I would feel comfortable selecting at 4.05, but I wasn’t so sure that would be the case for pick 4.10. In retrospect, trading up probably would have worked out, though I likely would have ended up with the same player in the end.

Here’s how the first part of Round 3 went: 25) Kevin Smith, 26) Wes Welker, 27) Darren McFadden, 28) Terrell Owens, 29) Drew Brees, 30) Pierre Thomas, 32) Dwayne Bowe

At 3.08, I had to choose amongst Tom Brady, Ronnie Brown, Ryan Grant, Marshawn Lynch and Reggie Bush. Housh was also available, but I felt that if I went WR/RB/WR through the first three rounds, it would put me in a tough spot if the teams drafting after me went on a RB run.

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To start with Round 1 (and see the scoring system and roster requirements), click here.

With Chris Johnson on board, I felt I was off to a pretty good start. I had the fifth pick in the second round and I knew that Reggie Wayne, Michael Turner, Steve Smith, Brian Westbrook or Frank Gore would fall to me. Given the starting requirements (2 RB, 3 WR, 1 Flex), I preferred going with a WR in round two so that I had more flexibility in the upcoming rounds.

Round 2: 13) Reggie Wayne, 14) Michael Turner, 15) Frank Gore, 16) Brian Westbrook

So that left Steve Smith for me. His bruised shoulder is a minor concern, but he’s already back on the field and when he plays, there are only a few wideouts that are more productive than Steve Smith. Last season, he was suspended for the first two games and still finished as WR10. He had the fourth-best average (18.6 fp) in the league behind Anquan Boldin (22.1), Andre Johnson (20.2) and Larry Fitzgerald (19.6). Over the last four years, he has averaged 18.0 fppg. He’s barely on the wrong side of 30, so I wouldn’t expect that he would show any signs of slowing down for another 3-4 years.

I briefly considered Boldin, Roddy White and Clinton Portis, but didn’t feel as good about any of them as I did about Steve Smith. (If you’re wondering, with a total of six starting RBs and WRs, QBs are slightly devalued in this league.) Taking a WR in the second round should allow me to pounce on value at any position in the next few rounds. If I had gone with another RB, I wouldn’t be able to go RB/RB in Round 3 and Round 4 if the value was there.

Round 2, Pick 5: Steve Smith, WR

The rest of Round 2 went like this: 18) Marion Barber, 19) Anquan Boldin, 20) Greg Jennings, 21) Roddy White, 22) Clinton Portis, 23) Brandon Jacobs, 24) Marques Colston

Click here to see all of my round-by-round picks.