Tag: fantasy football strategy (Page 32 of 80)

Love ‘Em & Leave ‘Em: Week 14

Every week, I highlight a few players to start and a few players to sit at each position. I’m a firm believer in starting your studs, so I won’t tell you about how Drew Brees or Adrian Peterson has a tough matchup – just go ahead and keep them in your lineup. Instead, I’ll focus on the borderline guys – players you’ll only start under the right circumstances. It’s important to note that depending on your roster and situation, you may not be able to follow these recommendations. For example, if I suggest you bench a solid starter like Tony Romo, only do so if you have a clearly better option on your bench.

The “love ‘em” players are listed in the order that I’d start them this week.

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Ben Roethlisberger should be in lineups this week given his opposition, the Browns’ 26th-ranked pass defense…Kurt Warner is back and playing well, and with a good matchup against the 49ers, he should post good numbers this week…If Matt Schaub is able to play, he’s a nice start against the Seahawks, who have the league’s 25th-ranked pass defense…David Garrard faces a Dolphins defense that is ranked 24th against the pass. The Jaguar receivers should be able to take advantage of a young Miami secondary…Alex Smith has been solid this season, and his matchup with the Cardinals is favorable. The 49ers are likely to have to throw quite a bit to stay in the game, so Smith should finish with two or three TD…Joe Flacco isn’t playing all that well of late, but with the Lions coming to down, that should change. Detroit has yielded 275 yards and 2.3 TD per game this season…Desperate? Ryan Fitzpatrick wasn’t good against the Jets’ stingy pass defense last week, but the Chiefs’ secondary isn’t nearly as good.

Ray Rice didn’t have a great week against the Packers, but he should bounce back in a big way against the Lions…strong>Rashard Mendenhall has been running the ball well and expected to start Thursday night despite an injury. The Browns are ranked 29th against the run…Jamal Charles is looking like a very nice start against Buffalo’s 32nd-ranked rush defense. The Bills have given up 162 yards and 1.3 rush TD on the ground this season…The Buffalo line has struggled to run block this year, but Fred Jackson should be able to gain some yards on the ground and in the passing game against a suspect Chiefs defense…Desperate? Pick up Quinton Ganther, who was recently promoted to RB1 in Washington. He has a nice matchup with a pretty porous Oakland run defense…Really desperate? Consider Sammy Morris, who is back healthy and might be out on the waiver wire. He has a good chance of finding the endzone against the Panthers’ 26th-ranked rush defense.

The Arizona passing attack has a nice matchup with the 49ers, so Anquan Boldin should definitely be in starting lineups and Steve Breaston is worth a look in deeper leagues…Derrick Mason had a tough outing against the Packers, but with the Lions coming to town, things are looking up…He didn’t have a very good game against the Bucs, but Steve Smith 1.0 hooked up with Matt Moore on a long bomb in the second half. He has another nice matchup with the Pats, who have been brutal against the pass of late…Michael Crabtree and Josh Morgan have a nice matchup agianst the Cards, who have given up 257 yards and 1.5 pass TD per game this season…They are no sure bet, but Terrell Owens and Lee Evans should be able to take advantage of a week Kansas City pass defense that is ranked 28th in the league…Davone Bess is coming off a 10-117-1 performance and has caught 29 passes over the last five weeks. This week, he faces the 23rd-ranked Jaguar pass defense. He’s worth a look in PPR leagues.

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The Falcons are hopeful that Matt Ryan can start this week, but he is coming off of an injury and has a bad matchup with a Saints defense that has only given up 1.0 pass TD per game this season…The Bills are pretty stingy against the pass (4th in the league, 10 pass TD allowed), so Matt Cassel might seem like a good start this week, but he’s not…Vince Young plays the Rams, who are better than advertised against the pass…Kyle Orton should be avoided. Indy is mediocre against the pass in terms of yards, but they’ve only allowed 11 pass TD all season.

The Bears are talking about reducing Matt Forte‘s workload, so that, combined with a bad matchup against the Packers this week, makes him a sketchy play…He’s still startable in many formats, but the Vikings have the 3rd-ranked rush defense, so Cedric Benson is unlikely to put up big numbers this week…Kevin Smith has had a good season, and I’d still start him in PPR leagues, but he’s a bad start in standard leagues given his tough matchup with the Ravens’ 6th-ranked rush defense…Steer clear of Julius Jones this week. The Texans’ rush defense has been a lot better of late and there’s a chance that Justin Forsett will eat into his touches as his quads get better.

Antonio Bryant has played pretty well of late, but the Jets have he #1 pass defense in the league, so it’s doubtful that he’s going to have a big day…The Bills rush defense stinks, but their pass defense is pretty good (4th-ranked), so don’t expect a big bounce back game this week for Chris Chambers…The Green Bay defense has been playing great lately, so I wouldn’t count on Devin Hester, Johnny Knox or Earl Bennett for big fantasy lines this week.


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Waiver Wire Watch: Week 14

Most leagues are entering the fantasy playoffs, so I’m going to do something a little different this week and only list a few guys at each position that could help out a fantasy owner for the next week or three. I’ll even offer up a couple of “by committee” pairs to get owners by at the QB and TE position. Remember, to be eligible, a player has to be available in at least 50% of ESPN’s fantasy leagues. I’ll list the player’s percentage-owned in parenthesis.

Alex Smith (29.0)
I’ve been beating the Alex Smith drum for a while now, and he’s still available in more than 70% of ESPN leagues. Since becoming the starter, he has averaged 225 yards and 1.9 TD per game, and other than that clunker against the Bears in Week 10, he has played QB1 ball. He has Arizona this week, Philly in Week 15 and Detroit in Week 16, so aside from that tough matchup with the Eagles, he’s startable the rest of the way. Fantasy owners who have Eli Manning, Tony Romo, Donovan McNabb or Ben Roethlisberger might want to pick up Smith to give them a good option in Week 16. All of those QBs have tough matchups that week.

Vince Young (25.2)
This looks like 2006 again. Since taking over as the starter, he has averaged 208 passing yards, 1.0 pass TD, 28 rushing yards and 0.2 rush TD per game. Young has three straight home games coming up, and his Week 15 matchup with Miami is a good one. In fact, he and Alex Smith would make a fine QBBC for the next three weeks. Just start Smith in Week 14 and Week 16 and Young in Week 15.

Ryan Fitzpatrick (1.4)
He had a pretty awful game on Thursday, but the Jets have one of the best pass defenses in the league. Things get much easier down the stretch with Kansas City in Week 14 and Atlanta in Week 16. Even Week 15’s matchup with the Patriots doesn’t look so bad given the way New England has played in recent weeks. If Smith is unavailable in your league, Fitzpatrick could be used in a QBBC with Young.

Recommended QBBC combos (along with the good matchups for each player): Smith (14, 16)/Young (15), Smith (14, 16)/Sanchez (14, 15), Smith (14, 16)/Stafford (15), Fitzpatrick (14, 16)/Young (15), Sanchez (14, 15)/Fitzpatrick (14, 16), Henne (14, 15)/Fitzpatrick (14, 16), Henne (14, 15)/Campbell (16)

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Love ‘Em & Leave ‘Em: Week 13

Every week, I will highlight a few players to start and a few players to sit at each position. I’m a firm believer in starting your studs, so I won’t tell you about how Drew Brees or Adrian Peterson has a tough matchup – just go ahead and keep them in your lineup. Instead, I’ll focus on the borderline guys – players you’ll only start under the right circumstances. It’s important to note that depending on your roster and situation, you may not be able to follow these recommendations. For example, if I suggest you bench a solid starter like Tony Romo, only do so if you have a clearly better option on your bench.

The “love ‘em” players are listed in the order that I’d start them this week.

love-em

Donovan McNabb is pretty much a must-start against a Falcons secondary that has given up an average of 253 yards and 1.6 TD per game this season…This probably goes without saying, but Brett Favre (ARI),Tom Brady (MIA), Peyton Manning (TEN), Philip Rivers (CLE) and Matt Schaub (JAX) all have great matchups this week…Carson Palmer is a very good start this week against a Lions defense that is ranked 32nd in the league against the pass…Tony Romo‘s back is feeling better and he has a nice matchup with a Giants defense that has given up the 8th-most fantasy points to quarterbacks over the last six weeks…The Seahawks have been pretty bad against the pass lately, so Alex Smith should be able to post a nice fantasy line…Desperate? Kyle Orton is primed for a good game against a sketchy Chiefs secondary.

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Defensive Team By Waiver Wire: Week 13

The strategy behind DTBWW is that each week, you pick up a defensethat is playing against a bad offense (preferably at home). And each week, you get pretty good numbers out of your DT position. To see how this approach performed last season, click here.

Last week, I recommended three DTBWW picks. Let’s see how they fared…

#1 Cowboys: 7 PA (6) + 3 SK + 1 FR = 10 fantasy points
#2 Seahawks: 17 PA (2) + 4 SK + 2 INT + 1 INT TD = 14 fp
#3 Dolphins: 31 PA (0) + 6 SK + 1 INT = 7 fp

It was a good week for DTBWW, with an average score of 10.3 points. The Dolphins had the Bills under control for much of the game, but gave up 17 points late. The Cowboys and Seahawks both played well.

On the season, my #1 pick is averaging 9.5 points, my #2 pick is averaging 10.9 points and my #3 pick is averaging 6.3 points. My #2 is particularly hot, averaging 11.7 points over the last nine weeks. On the whole, DTBWW is averaging 8.9 fantasy points per game, which is about the same as the #2 DT (Minnesota).

Let’s take a look at this week’s picks. Keep in mind that to be eligible for DTBWW, a defense must be available in at least 40% of ESPN fantasy leagues.

Pick #1: San Diego Chargers (@ CLE)
The Chargers have been hot of late and they have a matchup with one of the league’s worst offenses. Even though this one is on the road, it could get pretty ugly pretty quickly.

Pick #2: New York Jets (@ BUF)
The Jets are playing better defense the last couple of weeks and even though the Buffalo offense is a little better with Ryan Fitzpatrick under center, the Bills still can’t run the ball very well, and the Jets have the #2 pass defense in the league.

Pick #3: Chicago Bears (vs. STL)
The Bears defense isn’t good, but with the Rams coming to town, Chicago has a great matchup this week.

Bonus pick: Tampa Bay (@ CAR)


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