Well, it wasn’t a particularly well-played first game of the NFL season, but it was a tight game nonetheless. Here are five things that fantasy owners can take away from last night’s opener:
1. Pierre Thomas is a stud, and Sean Payton forgets that sometimes. (Adrian Peterson is a stud, and Brad Childress forgets that sometimes.)
In the first half, Payton gave Thomas three touches for -1 yards. He did have a 10-yard catch that was called back due to penalty. In the second half, the Saints tried to establish the running game in earnest and Thomas 72 yards on his next 16 carries — an impressive 4.5 ypc average during that span against the league’s #1-rated rush defense of 2009. He also found the endzone and caught three passes for 15 yards.
Meanwhile, “Chilly” abandoned the run when the Vikings were behind by just five points in the second half. Anthony Stalter has the details:
Down 14-9 with just over nine minutes remaining, Childress called seven straight pass plays. There was plenty of time for him to remain balanced with his playcalling, but he went pass-heavy and the result was a stalled drive at the New Orleans’ 44. He essentially made Gregg Williams’ job a hell of a lot easier once the Saints’ DC new he didn’t have to respect the running game.
The bottom line is that Childress appears to trust Favre more than AP, and that should be worrisome to Peterson owners. AP did finish with 101 yards on 22 touches, but failed to find the endzone.
2. Brett Favre loves him some Visanthe Shiancoe. Not so much the Percy Harvin.
Almost as important as actual production (catches, yards, TDs) is the number of targets each receiver gets throughout the course of the game. I’ve been high on Shiancoe all preseason — mostly due to Favre’s long-established affection for his tight ends — and he didn’t disappoint against the Saints, turning eight targets into 4-76-1. Conversely, Harvin only got five targets and looked out of sync with Favre all night. This is probably due to the time that both players missed in training camp due to migraines (Harvin) and being a total drama queen (Favre). I wouldn’t panic on Harvin just yet — it will probably just take a week or two for the chemistry to return, but I would consider sitting Harvin down next week if there’s a better option on the bench.
3. Don’t expect another 2009 from #4.
In all of his years in Green Bay, Favre never played with a receiver as physically gifted as Sidney Rice, and that was a big reason for his outstanding numbers last season. With Rice on the shelf for at least the first half of the season, Favre can’t just chuck the football downfield and expect Rice to go up and win virtually every jump ball. Without that deep threat, the Vikings are going to have to manufacture more first downs and longer drives, and as we saw last night, it’s not always going to be pretty.
4. Garrett Hartley is on the hot seat.
Good grief, Garrett. Make a field goal, will you? Hartley was often one of the first two or three kickers off the board and he was miserable last night, shanking two make-able field goal attempts. He’s lucky that it didn’t cost the Saints the game because there are a few capable kickers out there in free agency.
5. Robert Meachem/Devery Henderson are both startable in deep formats, though they’re not dependable.
On the heels of his breakout campaign last season, Meachem was going in the middle rounds (8th-10th) of fantasy drafts this summer, even though he’s coming off of a toe injury. Meanwhile, Henderson was available in the later rounds due to his inconsistency and history of burning fantasy owners. Both players saw four targets from Drew Brees. Henderson posted 2-38-1 while Meachem generated 3-33 and just missed a 14-yard TD early in the fourth quarter. I think Meachem is the better wideout and if he can stay healthy, he should finish the season as the Saints WR2, but Henderson looked pretty good in his own right. There’s enough offense for both of these players to finish in the Top 40, but don’t expect consistency week-to-week until one guy grabs the WR2 job (and WR2-type targets).
Phillip Rivers is a great start against a Chiefs pass defense that was really sketchy last season…I get the sense that Thursday’s matchup between the Vikings and Saints is going to be a high scoring affair, so that bodes well for Brett Favre, who will probably be in a position to pass a lot as Minny tries to keep pace with New Orleans…Looking for a few sleepers? Kyle Orton (@ JAX), Josh Freeman (vs. CLE), Alex Smith (@ SEA) and David Garrard (vs. DEN) all have good matchups this week.
Ronnie Brown should find plenty of running lanes against the Bills, who were 30th in the league against the rush last season…Don’t be surprised if Jerome Harrison has a big week against a Bucs’ rush defense that was last in the league in 2009. The Browns have a good offensive line and Harrison’s major competition for touches (Montario Hardesty) is out for the season…Matt Forte couldn’t ask for a better matchup than the Lions this week, though only time will tell whether or not Mike Martz is willing to give him enough touches to be a full-time fantasy starter…Carnell Williams should be able to take advantage of the Browns’ rush defense, which finished 28th last season.
Malcom Floyd steps into the Chargers’ WR1 role and has a great matchup with the Chiefs to begin the season…Pierre Garcon is a sneaky good start against a rather mediorce Texans pass defense…Mike Williams (TB) should have his coming out party against the Browns, who were 29th against the pass last season…Johnny Knox and Devin Hester face the Lions, so assuming Jay Cutler can stay upright long enough to throw the ball, they should be able to post nice numbers…For a couple of sleepers, look no further than Louis Murphy (@ TEN) and Laurent Robinson (vs. ARI). Both players have been thrust into WR1 roles and they have favorable matchups this week.
