Tag: Fantasy football draft strategy (Page 9 of 20)

Wes Welker ready for training camp

July 24, 2010 / John Paulsen

FOXBORO, MA - DECEMBER 13: Wes Welker #83 of the New England Patriots gains yards against the Carolina Panthers at Gillette Stadium on December 13, 2009 in Foxboro, Massachusetts. The Patriots won 20-10. (Photo by Jim Rogash/Getty Images)

The Boston Globe is reporting that Wes Welker is slated to be a full participant in training camp.

Welker is ready to open training camp and compete in all drills – contact included – with his teammates, according to an NFL source. He still has to pass his pre-camp physical, but there is little doubt he’ll do so.

This is obviously great news for Pats fans and for fantasy owners in PPR leagues. Welker has been goiing in the middle of the 5th round in mock drafts, and this news will no doubt boost his stock. Assuming he hasn’t lost a step, Welker should have no problem posting another 100+ catch season.

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2010 Fantasy Football Preview: Quarterback By Committee (QBBC)

July 23, 2010 / John Paulsen

All 2010 Fantasy Football Articles | 2010 Position Rankings

Every year, I kickoff TSR’s hardcore fantasy football coverage with my Quarterback By Committee (QBBC) post. I do this for a couple of reasons: 1) out of curiosity, as I usually draft a QBBC myself, and 2) there’s a lot of number crunching so it gets the fantasy football juices flowing.

For the neophytes, QBBC is a strategy often utilized by savvy fantasy footballers who want to take advantage of the relative depth at quarterback by forming a committee of overlooked mid-rounders. The premise is this: Two or three mediocre quarterbacks whose schedules mesh nicely — i.e. they have several favorable matchups when their schedules are combined — will give you the positional production of a top 5 QB.

This allows fantasy owners to load up on running backs, wide receivers and even a stud tight end in the early rounds, building depth at the positions where talent is at a premium. Sure, it’s great to have Aaron Rodgers or Drew Brees anchoring your team, but that means you don’t get that second round RB or WR that you had your eye on. If you can get Top 5 QB production from a couple of guys that you grab in the 8th, 9th or 10th rounds, and your early-round RBs and WRs perform up to expectations, your team will definitely be playoff bound.

This works because of the depth at QB. We know that the signal callers going in round 8 — guys like Eli Manning, Matt Ryan and Joe Flacco — are going to start and throw a lot of passes for their respective teams (barring injury, of course). Running backs or wide receivers that are going in the 8th round are another animal. RBs still available in the middle rounds are either sharing time or fighting for the starting job. WRs available that late are typically the second, third or even fourth options on their teams.

So that’s the theory — now for the research. To come up with a reasonable expectation for each two-man QBBC combination, I took the season projections from Footballguys (a great fantasy football site) and using their strength of schedule for each team, I was able to produce a week-by-week projection for each quarterback. From there, it was relatively easy to come up with a list of the duos that project to have the best combined seasons.

I only focused on those QBs going in the 8th round or later, so this exercise excludes the Top 11 signal callers (in terms of Average Draft Position): Aaron Rodgers (1.08), Drew Brees (1.10), Peyton Manning (2.04), Tom Brady (2.11), Tony Romo (3.09), Matt Schaub (3.11), Phillip Rivers (4.01), Jay Cutler (6.04), Kevin Kolb (6.04), Donovan McNabb (6.09) and Brett Favre (6.11). (Note: this article assumes a 12-team draft, so all mention of specific rounds and ADP have that in mind.)

This allows fantasy owners to spend at least the first seven picks on RBs, WRs and TEs, putting together a balanced squad before turning to the QB position.

So what was the top QBBC combination? The answer might surprise you:

External Sports, Fantasy Football, NFL

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Norv Turner sees Ryan Mathews as his workhorse back

April 27, 2010 / John Paulsen

When asked how many carries he thought rookie RB Ryan Mathews would have this season, Chargers head coach Norv Turner had this to say: (SignonSanDiego.com)

“That is so hard to say, because there are games that come up like the Tennessee game and the Denver game (last season) where you run the ball 40 times. I’d like every game to be that way. Unfortunately, it’s not. But I would expect Ryan to have 250 carries and 40 catches, something like that. That’s obviously saying Darren is going to have the same role he’s had.”

As a reference, LaDainian Tomlinson carried the ball 223 times for 730 yards and 12 TD, and caught 20 passes for 154 yards. LT2 is a very good pass-catcher, but Sproles took over most of those duties in recent years, so I’m not sure how Mathews gets to 40 catches this season. The carries I can see — Tomlinson missed a couple of games and would have carried the ball about 255-260 times had he stayed healthy.

If Mathews gets that kind of work and takes over the goal-line duties, I can see a 1,000-yard season and double-digit TDs in 2010. If we project 1,100 total yards, with 10 TD and 15 catches, that puts him at 185 fantasy points (in a PPR league). Last season, those were RB20 numbers, so Mathews should go somewhere in the middle of the fourth round, along with Jerome Harrison, Ronnie Brown and Knowshon Moreno.

Man, I have to get used to spelling “Mathews” with one “t.” Sigh.

External Sports, Fantasy Football, NFL

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Who are the top 10 fantasy WRs for 2010?

January 20, 2010 / John Paulsen

Over the past couple of weeks, I’ve listed my top QBs and RBs for 2010, and discussed the impressive depth of the TE position heading into next season. Today, I’ll list my top 10 fantasy wideouts for 2010. (These rankings assume a high-performance, point per reception scoring system.)

1. Andre Johnson
He’s a beast and the Texans often get into shootouts. As long as he stays healthy, he’s a shoe-in for a top 5 season.

2. Reggie Wayne
Wayne over Fitz? I think so, assuming Kurt Warner retires. Matt Leinart just does not inspire much confidence right now.

3. Larry Fitzgerald
Arguably the most talented wideout on this list, but if Warner doesn’t return, he could have a big problem at QB.

4. Randy Moss
He’ll be 33 heading into next season and seems disinterested at times. Still, with Wes Welker shaky to start the season, the Pats will lean on him.

5. Miles Austin
Exploded onto the scene in Week 5 (10-250-2) and never looked back. He’s the Cowboys’ clear WR1, runs great routes and has nice hands.

6. Roddy White
Struggled with injuries this year, but didn’t miss a game. He finished WR10, but should do better with a healthy Matt Ryan.

7. DeSean Jackson
Andy Reid usually finds a way to get him the ball, in the passing game or on the reverse. He’s also a very dangerous return man. With Brian Westbrook possibly gone, D-Jax would become Philly’s primary playmaker.

8. Vincent Jackson
He’s in a great offense with a great QB. He increased his per-game numbers from an already-productive 2008.

9. Steve Smith 2.0
Smith could potentially lose some targets to Hakeem Nicks, but he’ll more than likely be the Giants’ main possession receiver. In PPR leagues, he only missed double figures once all season.

10. Calvin Johnson
He battled injuries but still scored well when he played. He has some serious upside, especially if Matthew Stafford progresses as expected.

Honorable Mention: Chad Ochocinco, Sidney Rice, Marques Colston, Steve Smith 1.0, Brandon Marshall, Wes Welker, Greg Jennings, Hines Ward, Santonio Holmes, Anquan Boldin

Photo from fOTOGLIF

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Who are the top fantasy RBs for 2010?

January 14, 2010 / John Paulsen

Yesterday, I posted a list of my top fantasy QBs for next season. Now, it’s time to tackle the RB position. These rankings are for a high-performance, PPR scoring system. Off we go…

1. Chris Johnson
This year’s reigning OPOY figures to carry the same workload in 2010. He gained over 2500 yards and scored 16 times. Moreover, he played even better with Vince Young under center, so things bode well for next season.

2. Adrian Peterson
It would help if Brett Favre came back for another season, but it’s not a necessity. AP will still be the focal point of the Vikings’ offense.

3. Ray Rice
A great runner in a great running game. He gained more than 2000 yards from scrimmage and caught 78 passes. Money.

4. Maurice Jones-Drew
The Jags’ O-line raises concerns, which is why MJD isn’t higher. If they can get it straightened out, a top 3 finish is very possible.

5. Frank Gore
Finished as 2009’s RB5 even though he missed three games. That’s just it with Gore — he’s just a *little* bit injury prone.

6. Steven Jackson
Missed a game, had no help and still finished RB8. His numbers should improve as the Rams (hopefully) get back to mediocre.

7. Jamaal Charles
He scored 189 fantasy points over the last eight games. Those are RB1 numbers. Charles will be downgraded a bit because he’s a bit of an unknown, but with Charlie Weis taking over the KC offense, the Chiefs should be better on that side of the ball.

8. Michael Turner
Yes, he struggled with injuries. But he scored 140 points in the first eight games. Had he played a full season, he would have finished RB5-RB7. At just 27 (and with his limited work in San Diego), he should have several good years left.

9. Matt Forte
This is where things get really dicey. I could make an argument for 6-8 guys for these last two spots. Forte revealed at the end of the season that he struggled with injuries all year. Is it just an excuse or valid reasoning? Only he knows for sure. He’s the clear RB1 in Chicago and catches a lot of passes. He should bounce back, especially if the Bears’ offense improves.

10. Rashard Mendenhall
Of the remaining contenders, I like Mendenhall the best because Willie Parker will likely be gone, so he should be the clear RB1 in Pittsburgh. He gained almost 1400 yards from scrimmage and scored eight times even though he barely sniffed the ball in the first three games.

Honorable Mention: Joseph Addai, Cedric Benson, Ryan Grant, Pierre Thomas (especially if Bush is gone), DeAngelo Williams, Jonathan Stewart, Ronnie Brown, LaDainian Tomlinson, Knowshon Moreno