Tag: Fantasy football draft strategy (Page 7 of 20)

2010 Fantasy Football Preview: Sleeper RBs

ST. LOUIS - NOVEMBER 29:  Justin Forsett #20 of the Seattle Seahawks runs with the ball for yardage against the St. Louis Rams during their NFL game at Edward Jones Dome on November 29, 2009 in St. Louis, Missouri. The Seahawks defeated the Rams 27-17.  (Photo by Dilip Vishwanat/Getty Images)

All 2010 Fantasy Football Articles | 2010 Position Rankings

There are twenty running backs currently going in the first four rounds and 19 of them — Matt Forte excluded — are playing in what I refer to as ‘settled’ running back situations. We can move forward feeling pretty certain that these 19 RBs, barring injury, will get enough touches to be productive starting-caliber fantasy running backs.

But this piece isn’t about those guys. It’s about the rest of this year’s RB crop, or specifically RBs going in the 7th round or later: The Sleepers.

Below is a list of a few guys that I’m targeting later in drafts. They enter the 2010 season unproven, or unsettled in their respective situations, or even over the hill. I’ll list them in order of their current ADP at Antsports:

Brandon Jacobs (7.01)
In his worst season in three years, Jacobs finished as 2009’s RB31 on balky knees. He had them scoped in the offseason and says he feels better than ever. He’s just 28 years old and only has 779 career carries, so his mileage is pretty low given his age. Moreover, the Giants have a great offensive line and a solid passing attack to keep defenders out of the box. I’m expecting a bounce-back year from Jacobs, making him a nice RB2 for owners loading up on WRs early or a great RB3 on any roster.

Justin Forsett (7.05)
Pete Carroll has a history of using RBBC, so if he’s in a major timeshare I’m not sure Forsett is even worth his current draft position. But looking solely at his resume, there’s a lot to be excited about. He averaged 5.4 ypc last season, and had a couple of impressive performances against Arizona (22 touches, 149 yards, TD) and St. Louis (22 carries, 130 yards, 2 TD). He was also #6 in Yards After Contact Per Attempt (YCo/Att) which put him in some good company. Forsett’s prospects for 2010 depend less on his ability to beat out Julius Jones or Leon Washington and more on Carroll’s willingness to let him loose.

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2010 Fantasy Football Preview: PKs

GLENDALE, AZ - AUGUST 28:  Mason Crosby #2 of the Green Bay Packers kicks a field goal during the first quarter against the Arizona Cardinals at the University of Phoenix Stadium on August 28, 2009 in Glendale, Arizona.  (Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images)

All 2010 Fantasy Football Articles | 2010 Position Rankings

Ah, the kicker. This is always the last part of our annual preview that I write because, honestly, it’s the last thing I’m thinking about on draft day. In most leagues, it doesn’t matter who your kicker is, as long as he’s decent. And if you don’t find a decent kicker on draft day, you’ll surely have an opportunity to pick one up as the season wears on.

I generally look for two things when selecting a kicker:

1. He kicks for a team with a good offense.
In each of the last three seasons, six of the top 10 fantasy kickers played for teams that finished in the top 10 in yards per game. More yards generally means more opportunities for the kicker, be it field goals or extra points. Moreover, 23/30 (77%) of the top 10 kickers over the same span have been on teams that finished in the top 15 in yards per game.

In the last three years, only three teams have had a kicker make the top 10 every season: Tennessee (4th, 4th, 2nd), New England (9th, 1st, 7th) and Green Bay (6th, 10th, 1st). Of those three, only the Patriots and the Packers made the top 10 in each season in yards per game. Tennessee was 12th in 2009, 21st in 2008 and 21st in 2007. For whatever reason, Tennessee’s strong running game coupled with a quality kicker (Rob Bironas) leads to a lot of made field goals.

Four teams — Philadelphia, Minnesota, New York Giants and Denver — have had a kicker make the top 10 in each of the last two years.

2. He kicks indoors or in a warm weather city, especially in the fantasy playoffs.
Looking at the aforementioned list of teams with consistent kicking success, nice weather has nothing to do with it. New England, Green Bay, Philadelphia, New York and Denver are hostile in December, while Tennessee is pretty iffy.

This is just a personal preference. I have been willing to give up a few points during the season if it means my kicker has nice weather to kick in during the fantasy playoffs. I don’t want to be looking at a goose egg when my guy has to go out into below freezing weather and a 32 MPH crosswind.

But, thinking about it a little more, if it comes to that — why not just change kickers? There are always guys out there on the waiver wire with good matchups, so if you have Mason Crosby and he’s about to kick in terrible weather, you have options. Looking ahead, I’m going to put more of an onus on #1 than on #2.

The most important rule to remember on draft day is that you don’t want to draft your kicker too early. A good rule of thumb is to wait until 8-10 kickers are already off the board before scooping up the best of what’s left. I’d rather use those 12th, 13th and 14th round picks on a few RB or WR flyers, the last part of my QBBC or the start of my DTBC.

With that in mind, here are a few players going in round 15 or later that look to be good values on draft day. ADP data from Antsports.com.

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2010 Fantasy Football Preview: TEs

SAN DIEGO - JANUARY 17: Tight end Antonio Gates #85 of the San Diego Chargers makes a catch against the New York Jets during AFC Divisional Playoff Game at Qualcomm Stadium on January 17, 2010 in San Diego, California. (Photo by Stephen Dunn/Getty Images)

All 2010 Fantasy Football Articles | 2010 Position Rankings

The tight end position is often overlooked in fantasy football, but in leagues that award a point per reception, a stud TE can be quite valuable indeed. Over the past decade or so, NFL offensive coordinators have increasingly built game plans around their talented tight ends. It used to be that the position was meant to block in the running game and catch the occasional pass or two. But, more and more, the tight end has become a spot for a big playmaker with soft hands who can block a little.

The position isn’t nearly as deep as QB, but since many fantasy owners don’t consider taking a tight end until the fourth or fifth round, value is often found in the middle rounds. A vast majority of championship teams will get at least average production from the position, so no matter your strategy, you have to find a decent TE somewhere in your draft if you hope to be hoisting the trophy at the end of the season.

Here are a few TEs I’ll be targeting this season along with the round in which each player becomes a good value.

Antonio Gates in the 4th
With Vincent Jackson prepared for a long holdout, Gates will get a ton of targets from Phillip Rivers. It appears that his foot injury is behind him, so he’s in line for another Top 4 year. Gates is as consistent as they come.

Dallas Clark in the 5th
Clark was a stud last season, but with Anthony Gonzalez back and the continued development of Pierre Garcon and Austin Collie, one wonders if he can post 100 catches again. His previous high was 77, so the gut says ‘no.’ Still, even if he takes a 20% cut in production, that still would have been good enough to be TE3 in ’09.

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Moreno’s injury considered ‘minor’ — will miss three weeks

Denver Broncos running back Knowshon Moreno (27) runs upfield against the Indianapolis Colts during the third quarter at Lucas Oil Field in Indianapolis on December 13, 2009. The Colts defeated the Broncos 28-16 to remain undefeated at 13-0 and set a new NFL record for Consecutive regular-season wins with 22. UPI /Mark Cowan Photo via Newscom

Per the Denver Post…

Broncos starting running back Knowshon Moreno is expected to be out three weeks after an MRI exam revealed no significant tear to his hamstring, according to an NFL source. Moreno suffered the injury Sunday morning during the Broncos’ first training-camp session.

This is great news, but I’d still move Moreno down a few slots on your cheatsheet until he’s back on the field. He has struggled with injuries in the past, and this doesn’t bode well for his ability to carry the load as a full-time back.

Knowshon Moreno suffers ‘serious’ leg injury

PHILADELPHIA - DECEMBER 27:  Knowshon Moreno #27 of the Denver Broncos runs the ball against the Philadelphia Eagles on December 27, 2009 at Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. The Eagles defeated the Broncos 30-27.  (Photo by Jim McIsaac/Getty Images)

Per NBC Sports…

A league source tells the Denver Post that Knowshon Moreno’s left leg injury “appears to be serious.” ESPN’s Adam Schefter seconds the report.

Some are calling it a torn hamstring while others say it’s a torn ligament. Let’s wait for confirmation before making any snap judgments. From a fantasy point of view, this is obviously a huge blow to Moreno’s stock and it looks like Correll Buckhalter is next in line, though he has a long injury history in his own right. Kolby Smith is currently listed next on the depth chart.

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