Tag: Fantasy football draft strategy (Page 6 of 20)

Will TJ start over Jamaal Charles?

CINCINNATI - DECEMBER 27: Jamaal Charles #25 of the Kansas City Chiefs breaks free from Leon Hall #29 of the Cincinnati Bengals in their NFL game at Paul Brown Stadium December 27, 2009 in Cincinnati, Ohio.    (Photo by John Sommers II/Getty Images)

Those fantasy owners thinking about drafting Jamaal Charles in the second round should take note: The Chiefs released their first depth chart of the preseason and Thomas Jones is listed ahead of Charles.

I just spoke with Anthony Stalter and he said that owners shouldn’t read too much into this. I tend to agree, but this is a 2nd round pick we’re talking about. It’s too early to draft a guy that isn’t even listed first on his team’s depth chart. I still like Charles this year, but even if he gets 50% of the touches, it’s still not going to be enough to justify a second round pick over more defined backfields like Green Bay (Ryan Grant), San Diego (Ryan Matthews) or New Orleans (Pierre Thomas) — teams that are much better offensively and feature better-defined roles.

Charles is still worth a pick in the 3rd or the 4th and could move back into the 2nd if the reports out of camp indicate that he’ll get 60% of the carries. Right now, it looks like a timeshare. Ugh.

This quite perplexing considering Charles’ age (23) and performance down the stretch last season. He averaged 141 total yards and 1.0 TD per game over the last eight games. His is a situation to keep an eye on.

Is Bradshaw passing Jacobs on the depth chart?

EAST RUTHERFORD, NJ - DECEMBER 06:  Brandon Jacobs #27 and Ahmad Bradshaw #44 of the New York Giants celebrate after Jacobs scored a 74 yard touchdown reception in the third quarter against the Dallas Cowboys at Giants Stadium on December 6, 2009 in East Rutherford, New Jersey.  (Photo by Jim McIsaac/Getty Images)

Giants beat writer Mike Garafolo of the The Star-Ledger seems to think so

RB Ahmad Bradshaw (yes, I put him in the starter category because he’s taking all of the first reps with the starters, it seems) continues to look like his rookie self. He went off left edge and moved well, changing direction a few times. RB Brandon Jacobs looked pretty good tonight as well.

Here are the stats from last season:

Jacobs – 224 rushes, 835 yards, 5 TD; 18-184-1
Bradshaw – 163 rushes, 778 yards, 7 TD; 21-201-0

Bradshaw averaged more than a yard more per carry and only finished 40 yards behind Jacobs in total yards despite 58 fewer touches.

How you feel about this situation depends on how you feel about Jacobs’ knees. If he’s healthy, he’ll almost certainly get enough first and second down work and goal line carries to keep Bradshaw from being a bona fide fantasy RB2.

But here we are, about a month away from the season and Bradshaw appears to be pressing Jacobs for the starting job. This could be a coaching ploy to motivate Jacbos (whom Garafolo also said looked good), it could be a way to reduce Jacobs’ workload in the preseason since he’s coming off of knee surgery, or it could be an actual change to the Giants depth chart. For what it’s worth, Tom Coughlin says that the press is “too hung up on that stuff.” (Spoken like a man who doesn’t have a fantasy football draft to prepare for.)

Considering Jacobs is going a full two rounds earlier than Bradshaw (who is a nice value in the 9th), the latter would appear to be a better value given his upside. Regardless, fantasy owners who draft Jacobs in the 6th or the 7th should definitely grab Bradshaw in the 8th as insurance.

Goodell may reduce Big Ben’s suspension to four games — how would this impact his fantasy value?

31 July 2010 - Latrobe, Pennsylvania - Pittsburgh Steelers Quarterback BEN ROETHLISBERGER ( ) signs autographs and jokes with fans during the first practice of the 2010 Pittsburgh Steelers Training Camp held at Saint Vincent College. Photo Credit: Jason L Nelson/AdMedia

Per the USA Today:

The only sure thing is that Roethlisberger will sit out at least the four games. However, the commish likes the way the quarterback has reacted to the suspension. (Click here for Steelers’ schedule)

“He is doing great,” Goodell said. “… I’ve been encouraged by what I have seen. He’s understanding the seriousness of the issue. I think that’s a very positive development.”

For those fantasy owners who made it through my rather extensive QBBC article (or at least read the parts printed in bold), Roethlisberger is an interesting middle- to late-round pick this year. He’s usually underrated because the Steelers are still perceived to be a running team when in recent years they have been far more willing to throw the ball. And now this suspension has depressed his value even further.

But it looks like the commissioner may reduce his suspension from six games to four, and if he does, it would only serve to enhance Roethlisberger’s already appealing fantasy value.

As outlined in the aforementioned QBBC article, Roethlisberger forms a nice platoon with both Eli Manning and Matt Ryan (and, by the way, Joe Flacco). If Goodell reduces his suspension to four games, it means that he would return in Week 6 after the Steelers’ bye. That matchup is against the Browns, and it’s a tasty matchup indeed. In fact, it’s better than any of the matchups of the other QBs in play. The question is, would you want to start him in his first start of the season? Wouldn’t he be rusty?

That’s your call, but I wouldn’t be afraid to start him, not if he’s facing the Browns after he’s had two weeks to take all the snaps in practice. It wouldn’t be that much different than the first game of the season.

The downside of the lowered suspension is that his average draft position is probably going to rise. Still, only the savvy owners are going to jump on a guy that is going to miss four games; In recent years, Brandon Marshall and Steve Smith both went about two rounds later than they should have because they were facing suspensions. Generally speaking, Big Ben is an undervalued 7th or 8th round QB, which means he’ll likely go in the 9th or the 10th.

Bill Simmons tries to improve fantasy football

NEW YORK - APRIL 24: Writer Bill Simmons speaks at the panel and screening of 'Beyond Playing The Field' during the 2010 Tribeca Film Festival at the School of Visual Arts Theater on April 24, 2010 in New York City. (Photo by Rob Loud/Getty Images for Tribeca Film Festival)

Simmons thinks he can fix all things sports, and is lobbying President Obama for the position of Sports Minister. This week, he’s intent on fixing fantasy football, which in my estimation, doesn’t need a whole lot of fixing. Anyway, his six suggestions are:

1. Everyone agrees on a Universal Fantasy System
Not a bad idea, but it’s impossible to get everyone that plays a sport/game with no oversight to agree on a set of rules. Simmons thinks he should be the guy who decides the rules. Okay…can I be the guy who decides what everyone drinks at a bar?

2. Everyone switches to an auction format
I love fantasy auctions and so would you if you got off your butt and tried one someday. They are more fun and more fair than the snake draft, but the snake draft is far simpler. As FF continues to go more mainstream, simple is going to win out. It’s sad, but true.

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2010 Fantasy Football Preview: Sleeper WRs

SAN FRANCISCO - NOVEMBER 12: Johnny Knox #13 of the Chicago Bears in action against the San Francisco 49ers at Candlestick Park on November 12, 2009 in San Francisco, California. The 49ers won 10-6. (Photo by Jed Jacobsohn/Getty Images)

Yesterday, I listed a few sleeper RBs that I’m targeting in the mid to late rounds, and today I’ll tackle the WR position. I’ve already discussed a few 10th-round-type players in the WR preview — specifically Derrick Mason, Malcom Floyd and Devin Aromashodu — so I’ll limit this list to players with average draft positions (ADP) in the 11th round or later.

Johnny Knox (10.11) & Devin Hester (10.11)
I’ve already broken my 11th round rule. Knox and Hester are practically going on the 11th, so I’ll give myself a pass. Truth is, I like all the Bears receivers in Mike Martz’s wide open system, but I’m not sure which guy will finish the best stats. Hester seems built to be a Wes Welker slot-type guy (with more quickness), while Knox has a ton of speed. Brad Biggs of the Chicago Tribune thinks that Knox is emerging as Jay Cutler’s top target and Rotoworld speculates that it’s because of his ability to control his elite speed a la Torry Holt and Isaac Bruce. It’s entirely possible that all three wideouts will have fantasy relevant seasons.

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