Tag: Fantasy football draft strategy (Page 20 of 20)

Most fantasy football drafts utilize a “snake” draft where teams pick 1-12 in odd rounds and 12-1 in even rounds. Crafty owners can take advantage of the characteristics of such a draft if their draft position is one, two or three spots from either end. So those owners with the #2, #3, #4, #9, #10 or #11 picks (in a 12-team draft) should pay attention.

Here’s the situation: you have the #3 pick in the draft and the two owners ahead of you select LaDainian Tomlinson and Adrian Peterson in the first round. You take a running back – let’s say Brian Westbrook – and the draft proceeds. Now you’re up again with the 2.10 (#22) pick and you’ve narrowed your pick to the following list:

T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Willis McGahee, Jamal Lewis, Ryan Grant and Steve Smith

Let’s say that you like Smith, but now that he’s going to miss the first two games due to suspension, you’re a little down on him. You like Housh more; he’s a consistent WR in a terrific offense. However, you know that RBs are important and you want to select one of the three to round out your backfield, but you can’t decide which one since they’re all about the same. What do you do?

Take Housh.

Why?

The two owners picking #1 and #2 each have two picks before your next pick. Both have already taken a RB, so it isn’t likely that either owner is going to select two RBs with the next two picks because they’ll probably want to start filling out the rest of their roster. That leaves you with at least one of the three RBs to pick at 3.03. By selecting Housh (whom you value more than the next WR, Smith) you get the best WR on the board, and since McGahee, Lewis or Grant is likely to be there at 3.03, you’ll probably get a solid #2 RB in the next round. Since it didn’t matter to you which RB of the three you got, you let the other two owners make the tough decision, while you laugh all the way to the playoffs.

Now let’s say you’re in the same draft slot and your pick is up at 6.10. So far you’ve selected the following players:

Westbrook (RB), Houshmandzadeh (WR), Grant (RB), Santonio Holmes (WR), Tony Gonzalez (TE)

That’s a nice squad, but you have no QB. At 6.10, you’re selecting from the following group:

Matt Hasselbeck, Donovan McNabb, Marc Bulger and Jay Cutler

You notice that the team selecting #2 doesn’t yet have a QB while the team selecting #1 has Tony Romo. You can safely assume that team #1 won’t select another QB so soon, but team #2 might select their first QB before you pick at 7.03. You like both Hasselbeck and McNabb, but you really like Jerricho Cotchery over the other available WRs. So whom do you take?

Grab Cotchery.

In this case, you take Cotch and pass on Hasselbeck and McNabb, as one (or both) of them will probably be available for you to pick at 7.03.

This principle is applicable to all positions. Whether it’s a TE in the middle rounds or a kicker or a defense in the late rounds, being able to predict your opponents’ actions gives you an advantage during the draft. The key to this strategy is to know what players the #1 and #2 teams have already drafted so you can use that information to your advantage. In live drafts, it is often difficult to draft your own team as well as keep track of the other teams, but if you only pay attention to the important teams – in this case the teams picking #1 and #2 – it shouldn’t be much of a burden.

About this time every summer, I like to highlight a few players that have a good chance of outperforming their draft position. Using Antsports’ Average Draft Position (ADP) data from 12-team mock drafts (using Antsports’ high performance scoring system) that were conducted between 7/1 and 7/28, I’ll identify a player or two that should be available in each round. To qualify, the player has to have an ADP of the 10th pick or later in that round. For example, to be eligible to be drafted in the second round, the player must have an ADP of 2.10 or later.

Over the course of eight rounds, my goal will be to draft one quarterback, three running backs, three wide receivers and one tight end.

Round 1: Clinton Portis (1.10)
I think you can draw a line after the top eight RBs – LT, Westy, Peterson, Addai, Jackson, Gore, Barber and Portis. Willis McGahee has Portis’ dependability, but not his explosiveness. Reggie Bush has Portis’ explosiveness, but not his dependability. If you’re unfortunate enough to get a late pick, count yourself lucky if you can come out of the first round with Portis.
Alternate: Reggie Wayne (2.02)
Wayne established himself as the Colts’ #1 receiver last year and is in line for another big season.

Round 2: Jamal Lewis (3.07)
I’m not sure why Lewis is going so late. He was the #7 RB last season and hasn’t turned 30 yet. It seems like fantasy owners think that 2007 was a fluke, but the Browns have a good offensive line, a good quarterback and good receivers in the passing game to keep defenders honest. As long as those knees hold up, Lewis should have another top 10 year.
Alternate: T.J. Houshmandzadeh (3.02)
It’s risky to go WR/WR with your first two picks, but Housh is as dependable as they come.

Round 3: Plaxico Burress (3.12)
Yes, he’s going to be listed as questionable with a bad ankle just about every week. But he’s going to play and he’s going to play well. With Jeremy Shockey out of the picture, he’s going to see more targets. As long as his quarterback continues to develop, Burress is in line for a big year.
Alternate: Jason Witten (4.07)
Still no RB for the alternates? Witten’s situation hasn’t changed so he has the best shot of finishing as TE1.

Round 4: Ben Roethlisberger (4.11)
Big Ben was the #4 QB last season, his situation hasn’t changed, and yet he’s the #6 QB off the board this season. He’s smooth and steady, and he’s the last of the sure things at QB.
Alternate: Selvin Young (5.08)
It’s always dicey to draft a Mike Shanahan RB, but Young has a ton of upside in Denver’s running game.

Round 5: Tony Gonzalez (6.03)
Gonzo is back for one more season – do you think he’ll want to go out on top? He posted TE2 numbers last season with horrible QB play. Even a slight improvement in that area gives him a great shot at top 5 numbers at his position.
Alternate: LenDale White (5.11)
Don’t read too much into the Chris Johnson draft pick. The Titans are going to run a ton and despite White’s residency in Jeff Fisher’s doghouse, he’s still the best they have at running between the tackles.

Round 6: Jerricho Cotchery (6.10)
It’s true that the Jets’ QB play was atrocious last season, but it can’t get any worse, right? Expect Cotch to improve from his #24 ranking last season as the Jets will continue to have to throw from behind.
Alternate: Matt Hasselbeck (6.10)
Sure, D.J. Hackett is gone and Deion Branch is injured, but Branch should return and Nate Burleson and Bobby Engram are good enough to give Hass some options.

Round 7: Matt Forte (7.11)
Forte probably won’t set the world on fire, but he’s going to get the lion’s share of the Bears’ carries even if Kevin Jones is healthy enough to play. In the seventh round, you can’t ask for much more than that.
Alternate: Matt Forte (7.11)
I like Forte to shore up both teams’ running games.

Round 8: Derrick Mason (11.11)
Yes, it’s probably too early to grab Mason, but the guy is a reception machine, which makes him gold in PPR leagues. He has caught at least 86 passes in four of the last five years and has gone over 1000 yards receiving in six of the last seven. You could do a lot worse as your WR3.
Alternate: Nate Burleson (8.12)
He’s a tease, but with Deion Branch slated to miss some time early, this might actually be Burleson’s year to breakout.

All right, let’s take a look at the two rosters as they stand…

Team 1:
Ben Roethlisberger, QB
Clinton Portis, RB
Jamal Lewis, RB
Matt Forte, RB
Plaxico Burress, WR
Jerricho Cotchery, WR
Derrick Mason, WR
Tony Gonzalez, TE

Team 2:
Matt Hasselbeck, QB
Selvin Young, RB,
LenDale White, RB
Matt Forte, RB
Reggie Wayne, WR
T.J. Houshmandzadeh, WR
Nate Burleson, WR
Jason Witten, TE

Team 1 looks pretty solid. It has two good RBs, a steady QB and one of the best TEs in the game. Team 2’s fortunes rest on the young legs of Selvin Young and LenDale White. If those two can finish in the top 15, this team would be very difficult to beat with Wayne, Housh and Witten racking up major points in the passing game.