Tag: Fantasy football draft strategy (Page 18 of 20)

For QBs, it’s boom or bust in the middle rounds

Take a look at this list of fantasy QBs, in order of Average Draft Position. The ADP is from Antsports’ 12-team league drafts from 8/1-9/1, and the last number on each line is the player’s average points per game in Antsports’ High Performance scoring system.

QB7 (5.09) Derek Anderson, 9.5
QB8 (5.11) Donovan McNabb, 30.4*
QB9 (7.04) Jay Cutler, 28.5
QB10 (7.05) Matt Hasselbeck, 10.6
QB11 (8.04) Brett Favre, 15.3
QB12 (8.07) Marc Bulger, 10.3
QB13 (8.08) Eli Manning, 20.4
QB14 (8.09) David Garrard, 11.7
QB15 (9.04) Matt Schaub, 18.5*
QB16 (9.07) Phillip Rivers, 26.4
QB17 (9.11) Jake Delhomme, 13.0
QB18 (10.04) Jon Kitna 19.8
QB19 (10.05) Aaron Rodgers, 26.7
QB20 (10.12) Vince Young, 7.9*

* only one game of data is included

Save for Favre, Delhomme and maybe Schaub, each of these quarterbacks is either greatly outperforming or severely underperforming in relation to their preseason expectations. I see two distinct groups: Boom and Bust.

Boom: McNabb, Cutler, E. Manning, Rivers, Kitna and Rodgers

Bust: Anderson, Hasselbeck, Bulger, Garrard and Young

Sure, it’s early, but think about it this way – if you had a QB in the Bust group, is there any possible trade for a player in the Boom group (i.e. Anderson-McNabb, Hasselbeck-Cutler, etc.) where you wouldn’t pull the trigger? I was high on Garrard before the season, but after two weeks of watching the Jaguars disappointing pass offense in action, I’d be more than willing to make a Garrard-for-Kitna swap if the opportunity presented itself (although Kitna is a little dicey because his job isn’t that secure). Likewise, if you have a Boom player, would you trade him for any of the players in the Bust group? I wouldn’t.

Chances are that a few quarterbacks in each group will return to the mean. Some in the Boom group will cool off while some in the Bust group will heat up. But right now, there is a big disparity within this group of quarterbacks.

My first “Insiders League” draft

I was recently invited to join an “Insiders League” that was sponsored by the Fantasy Sports Writers of America. Maybe it was (ahem) my superior fantasy knowledge, maybe it was my award-winning article, or maybe they just needed a warm body to fill out the league. (I’m betting on the latter, though I’ll make the most of any opportunity to mention my award-winning article. By the way, did I mention I won an award?)

Anyway, there were representatives from Fanball, Footballguys, The Roto Expert, the Fantasy Football Times, among others. I debated whether or not to actually write about this draft, as one of the owners was on auto-draft and it kind of messed up the flow of things. But I figured that happens in regular drafts too, so what the heck.

I had the #10 pick and I was none too happy about it. It’s a tough year to have a late first round pick, though it’s generally not a good position in any draft. If you’re sharp, you can put a good team together, but the chips are stacked against you from the start. Whatever owner is lucky enough to draft #1 overall is going to get three of the top 25 picks, and since most of the second round guys are so similar, it’s really his league to lose if he makes good decisions at the 2/3 turn.

But I was determined to make the best of it, and here’s how the draft went.

1.10: Clinton Portis, RB
The way I see the first round, there are eight can’t-miss RBs: LT, Westy, AP, Addai, Jackson, Barber, Portis and Gore. I’m not as high on Gore as the rest of the fantasy community, but I would have been okay with him at #10. Moss and Lynch went ahead of me, so I had to decide between Portis and Brady, and decided to go RB.

2.03: Larry Fitzgerald, WR
I was hoping that Wayne would slip, but he went 2.01. At that point, I was looking at either Fitzy or Reggie Bush. I’m in a number of drafts this year and have gone RB/RB in the first two rounds most of the time, so I thought I’d switch it up and go with a WR in this draft. (By the way, this is a PPR league requiring two starting RBs, three starting WRs, a TE and a flex spot, so WRs are pretty important.)

3.10: Steve Smith, WR
Smith was a late second round guy before the two-game suspension, so with Jamal Lewis and Ryan Grant off the board, I decided to go WR again. I thought about Earnest Graham and Jason Witten, but thought that one or both would be on the board at 4.03.

(The LT owner went with a Maroney/AJ combo at 2.12/3.01, which is strong if the Pats elect to use Maroney at the goal line. I don’t think they will, but you never know.)

4.03: Ben Roethlisberger, QB
Oops, Graham and Witten (along with Jacobs and Burress) went at the turn, so my only attractive option was Big Ben. I think there’s a drop-off after the top six QBs – Brady, Manning, Romo, Brees, Roethlisberger and Palmer – so I think it’s important to get one of those this season. Besides, the RBs that were available – McFadden, TJ, Fast Willie, Ronnie Brown – weren’t that attractive, not when I could get Edge or Selvin Young at 5.10.

5.10: Dwayne Bowe, WR
Oops. (Noticing a trend here?) Selvin went 5.02 and Edge went 5.08, so I took the best player available. Bowe had a tremendous rookie season and I think he’s in for big things in 2008. At this point, I realize that I am really hurting at RB but am stacked at WR. I thought about taking LenDale here, but I was (justifiably, it turns out) worried about Chris Johnson eating into his carries. Besides, White will be there at 6.03, right?

6.03: Jerricho Cotchery, WR
Wrong. White went on the turn, which turned out to be a blessing in disguise. Regular readers know that Cotch is a perennial JP favorite; he is quickly becoming the next Donald Driver – underrated and productive. Now that he has Favre throwing to him, I’m expecting a career (100-catch?) year. I thought about Fred Taylor, but figured he would have a shot at slipping to 7.10.

7.10: Rashard Mendenhall, RB
Of course, Taylor was long gone. Mendenhall was a desperation pick. I needed a RB badly and I thought he was the best on the board. In hindsight, Ricky Williams would have been better, but it’s tough to count on him and his situation wasn’t quite as attractive at the time of the draft.

8.03: Chris Cooley, TE
I love getting Cooley in the 8th. He’s the most dependable tight end after the top four – Witten, Winslow, Gates and Gonzo – and I think he’ll thrive in Jim Zorn’s West Coast Offense. I probably should have gone RB here, but at this point I was thinking that I’d be able to trade one of my WRs to the auto-pick team. (After seven rounds, his team had two QBs and five RBs! Ha!)

I went on to grab Chris Perry in the 9th, Jerious Norwood in the 10th, Jason Campbell in the 11th, Ronald Curry in the 12th, Ladell Betts (to back up Portis) in the 13th, Eddie Royal in the 14th, Green Bay and Buffalo DTs in the 15th and 16th, Derrick Ward in the 17th, DeSean Jackson in the 18th, Jeff Reed in the 19th and Mark Clayton in the 20th.

After the draft, I proposed a Steve Smith-for-Jamal Lewis swap with the auto-pick team, and he quickly accepted. (Whew!) So I ended up with a squad that looks like this:

Starters:

QB: Roethlisberger
RB1: Portis
RB2: J. Lewis
WR1: Fitzgerald
WR2: Bowe
WR3: Cotchery
TE: Cooley
Flex: Perry
K: Reed
DT: Packers

Bench:

QB: Campbell
RB: Mendenhall, Norwood, D. Ward
WR: Curry, De. Jackson, M. Clayton

Overall, given my competition, I am quite happy with my team. I have a top-six QB, two solid RBs (#5 and #7 last year), a great WR corps (#6, #20 and #23 last season, with upside) and a good TE (#5 last year). I would have drafted better in the middle and late rounds had I known that I’d be able to move Smith for Jamal, but those are the breaks. My bench is not what I’d like it to be, but there is some upside there with Perry currently the RB1 in Cincy and Mendenhall, Norwood and Ward the top backups elsewhere. I like the upside of Curry, Royal and DeSean Jackson (though I’m a little apprehensive about having two rookie wideouts on my team).

So what do you think? Did I represent The Scores Report well?

Bengals cut Rudi Johnson

Two years ago, Rudi Johnson rushed for 1308 yards and 12 TD. In the two seasons before that, he rushed for at least 1450 yards and 12 scores. Today, he’s unemployed.

…the Bengals cleared out right tackle Willie Anderson, running back Rudi Johnson, and cornerback Deltha O’Neal on Cutdown Day to get down to the 53-player limit.

They all made Hawaii in 2005 as the Bengals celebrated the AFC North title. Johnson’s 1,458 yards and O’Neal’s 10 interceptions in that season are still in the book as club records.

“Obviously the play fell off in ’07, and we just haven’t seen a lot of change thus far this year,” said head coach Marvin Lewis in a late afternoon news conference. “It’s a hard decision to make.”

Even though he returned to practice last week, the Bengals apparently decided they hadn’t seen enough of the new and improved Johnson this summer and cut the man projected to once be their bell-cow running back in 2008.

It’s amazing how over-the-hill the 28 year-old Johnson seems right now. He had 1039 carries from 2004-2006, and it appears that they really took their toll. If he can get healthy, he can probably help someone, but for now he’ll join former top fiver Shaun Alexander in the ranks of the unemployed.

From a fantasy point of view, this is a big upgrade for Chris Perry (the current “starter”) and Kenny Watson. Perry has had his own injury problems in the past, so if you can grab both players, do so. Watson has always been productive when given the chance.

Fantasy Football Update: 8/27

I know many of you are heading into your drafts this weekend, so here are a few things that are going on in the world of fantasy football:

Peyton Manning returned to practice, but HC Tony Dungy said that he was “iffy” for the season opener. Apparently, he looked good, so plan on Peyton keeping his consecutive games streak alive in Week 1… HC Marvin Lewis says that even though Chris Perry is atop the depth chart at running back, Rudi Johnson could win his job back with a good performance on Thursday night. The vibe seems to be that Rudi is on the way out of Cincy, but you never know. Perry is a nice late-round pick, as is Kenny Watson, who was the team’s most productive back last season… Jeff Fisher says that he plans to split touches between LenDale White and rookie speedster Chris Johnson. “I would assume it would be close to 50-50, maybe 60-40,” he said. “We’re going to use them both depending on the game plans and it makes sense to take advantage of both of their abilities. I think we’ll have a better gauge once we get to the middle part of the season.” Johnson’s stock has risen of late and while White is pretty solid between the tackles, the rookie is more of a home run threat… The Packers plan to get Brandon Jackson more involved in the running game in an attempt to reduce the pounding that Ryan Grant takes over the course of the season. The idea is to limit Grant to 300 carries (which is still a lot) and use him more in the passing game, which means that Grant’s value is enhanced in PPR leagues.

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