Here’s some fade material for your NFL weekend…

Saints @ Seahawks, 4:30PM ET, Saturday
I don’t have the stones to predict an outright win for the Seahawks and even if I did, I wouldn’t want to be accused of going against the grain just for the sake of going against the grain. Plus, I don’t think Seattle has enough weapons to slow down Sean Payton’s offense for four quarters. That said, I love the 10.5 points here. When I first saw the spread for this matchup, I racked my brain trying to figure out if I had ever seen a road team lay that many points in a playoff game before. I couldn’t think of one because there hasn’t been. The Seahawks are the biggest home underdog in NFL playoff history. Look, this isn’t college football. It’s hard enough for a home team to cover as a double-digit favorite in the NFL, let alone a road team to cover such a large spread. And considering the Saints won’t be able to run the ball, the Seahawks should be able to keep this game somewhat close. Seattle is still one of the toughest environments to play in – I don’t care how poorly the Seahawks are performing. This one will be much, much closer than most people think.
THE PICK: SEAHAWKS +10.5

Jets @ Colts, 8:00PM ET, Saturday
By now, everyone is aware of the hold Peyton Manning has on Rex Ryan. He’s 5-1 against Ryan-led defenses and has thrown for 1,513 yards and 12 touchdown passes to only two interceptions. That said, I think the Jets will control the tempo of this game from the start and leave Manning on the sidelines. The best way to beat Peyton is to limit his opportunities to beat you. You’re never going to be able to completely shut him down (even in his four-interception game against the Chargers he still tossed two touchdown passes), but allowing him to speed up the tempo of the game is forbidden. He wants to have the ball in his hands so that he can attack your defense. Therefore, the Jets have to run the ball with success and grind the tempo of this game to a screeching halt. I expect this game to be boring and if it is, the Jets win outright.
THE PICK: JETS +2.5

Read the rest of this entry »

So Michael Vick slipped a little on Tuesday night, which makes us feel better about keeping Tommy Brady (as Charlie Weis calls him) in the top spot.

1. Tom Brady, New England Patriots—Amazingly, Brady has thrown for an NFL record 319 pass attempts without an interception, going back to Week 6. So let’s review—3701 yards, 34 TDs (NFL high) and just 4 picks, and his team is 13-2 and in the fast lane in the AFC. Damn.

2. Michael Vick, Philadelphia Eagles—Look, we can’t disregard what Vick has done this season, because it’s phenomenal. But he looked mortal against the Vikings, and also for 52 minutes against the Giants before that.

3. Matt Cassel/Jamaal Charles/Dwayne Bowe, Kansas City Chiefs—This trio has led the Chiefs to the AFC West crown. Cassel has 27 TDs to 5 picks/Jamaal has 1835 all-purpose yards and Bowe leads all NFL receivers with 15 TDs. The league won’t view this as one person, but that doesn’t mean we can’t.

4. Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints—What, did you think the Saints were just going to go away? Not with this guy leading the team. But the 21 picks may hurt him in the voting.

5. Arian Foster, Houston Texans—This kid is just a beast week-in and week-out.

6. Matt Ryan/Roddy White, Atlanta Falcons—Sure, the Falcons are impressive, especially some of the late-game heroics, but losing at home to Saints hurt.

7. Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers—Rodgers admitted that sitting out with a concussion allowed him to come back fresh in Week 16—to the tune of 404 yards and 4 TDs.

8. Clay Matthews, Green Bay Packers—Do you get the feeling you have to account for this dude as if he were Lawrence Taylor?

9. Donte Whitner, Buffalo Bills—136 total tackles (92 solo) with a sack, an interception, a forced fumble and 7 passes defensed. I know the Bills suck, but Whitner is a one-man wrecking crew.

10. Peyton Manning, Indianapolis Colts—Look who’s back, and he even showed he can run—in slow motion, but he can run.

I’ll be the first to admit that I thought the Chiefs would have collapsed by now and the Chargers would have overtaken the top spot in the AFC West. Kansas City has been in control of the division for most of the year but I’ve patiently waited for disaster to strike.

But it hasn’t. Perhaps I should have considered that their win over the Chargers in Week 1 wasn’t a fluke and this team is for real. But I didn’t. And they are.

Matt Cassel was brilliant in the Chiefs’ 34-14 win over the Titans on Sunday. He completed 24-of-34 passes for 314 yards and three touchdowns, all while showing no ill effects from the appendectomy surgery he had three weeks ago. It’s amazing to think that at the start of the year, many people believed KC would have to search for a new quarterback in 2011 and now it appears that the Chiefs will only go as far as he takes them. Understandably, it took a while for him to get comfortable in Charlie Weis’ system but now that he is, the skies the limit for both him and KC. (It also doesn’t hurt that he has a couple of great weapons around him in Jamaal Charles and Dwayne Bowe).

Granted, things could still turn sour for KC next week and seeing as how I have deemed them “for real,” the jinx has probably been set.

But as of this writing, the Chargers are losing at halftime to the Bengals, so it looks like the Chiefs are in good shape. If Cincinnati holds on, KC would win the AFC West for the first time since 2003. If San Diego mounts a comeback and wins, then the Chiefs would have to beat the Raiders next week or have San Diego lose at Denver.

Let’s assume for a second that the Chiefs do win the division and wrap up the No. 3 seed in the AFC. How far could this team go? Well, given how bad the Jets’ (who will have the No. 6 seed) defense has looked in recent weeks, it’s not a stretch to think that KC would move to the Divisional Round of the playoffs. And then, who knows? Nobody outside of the Patriots looks indestructible in the AFC so there’s a chance that this pesky Chiefs team could be the dark horse of the conference.

But first things first: they need to get in and then they can worry about seeding and opponents. Either way, the Chiefs continue to make noise.

I’m starting a new column and I’m calling it “I’m Just Saying.” Peter King has a column (Monday Morning Quarterback), so it only makes sense that a well-respected sports blogger like myself has a column as well.

What? I’m not well-respected? Who the hell is Anthony Stalter? Peter King is more established?

What-ev.

– Let’s hold off on the Giants-look-like-Super-Bowl-contenders-again talk after they beat a crap Redskins team. After their effort against the Eagles and Giants over the past few weeks, I’m fully convinced that Oregon could beat the Redskins on a neutral field.

– Hey Josh Freeman, I’d stay away from Brent Grimes the next time Atlanta comes to down. Dude is small but he’s often the most athletic player on the field.

– Lion fans are pissed about the unnecessary roughness penalty on Ndamukong Suh for the forearm shiver that he delivered to Jay Cutler’s back, but riddle me this, Batman: Was the play avoidable? Could Suh have chosen not to go GSP on Cutler and still gotten him down? What I’m asking is: Was it necessary roughness?

– I’m pretty sure I could think of two reasons not to start Brett Favre for every one reason that Leslie Fraizer comes up with. Let’s start with these: His touchdown to interception ratio this year is 10:17 and even after his effort on Sunday, one could make an argument that Ryan Fitzpatrick is better at this point in his career. That’s right – Ryan Fitzpatrick. So why not Tarvaris Jackson, Leslie?

– Is there any reason Marion Barber should get carries for the Cowboys with how good Felix Jones and Tashard Choice looked against the Colts? Sorry, is there any good reason I mean to write.

– You’re lucky the Colts wound up scoring anyway, Eric Foster.

– Hey Peyton: blue shirts, white helmets, my man.

Read the rest of this entry »

Nice find by Raw Sports, who found a quote from Dwayne Bowe and ran with it…

Bowe is quoted as saying this in regard to the SuperBowl, “Definitely we’re going to win it all. I can’t guarantee it, but I can tell you we’re going to win it all.”

Wait… what!?

I can’t guarantee it but we’re definitely winning it all… If you’re gonna make a dumbass guarantee at least go all the way! Don’t hedge on your comments and speak out of both sides of your mouth. That’s probably the WORST guarantee I’ve ever heard in my life! I’d rather he guarantee that they’re going to win every game from here on out or win each game by 40 or something completely ridiculous than this half-assed BS.

This used washing machine will work for a year. I can’t guarantee it, but I’m telling you it will work for at least a year. It will! No guarantees, though.