How would the 2008 NBA Draft go if owners and GMs knew then what they know now?

Here’s my take…

#1 Chicago: Derrick Rose
The Bulls don’t want a mulligan. They are perfectly happy with their franchise point guard.

#2 Miami: Brook Lopez
Michael Beasley isn’t a bust, no matter what anyone says. But if the Heat had it all to do over again, they’d go with Lopez here, who posted 13.0 points and 8.1 rebounds in about 31 minutes of playing time.

#3 Minnesota: O.J. Mayo
I don’t think the T-Wolves would do anything differently. They’d still draft Mayo and trade with Memphis for Love. Why not?

#4 Seattle/OKC: Russell Westbrook
Likewise, the Thunder have to be happy with what they have in Westbrook, who averaged 20.6 points, 6.1 rebounds and 5.9 assists in February.

Read the rest of this entry »

Everyone loves to focus on the lottery, but there are good players to be had in the late first round as well. A while back, I put together a list of the top second round picks of the modern era, so now I’m going to focus on those players that were drafted between pick #21 and pick #30 in the first round. (Note: If a player was drafted in the second round, even if they were taken with the #29 or #30 pick overall, they are ineligible to make the list. Sorry, Gilbert.) Since there are more star-quality players available in the 20’s, I’m limiting this list to the last ten drafts (i.e. 1999 through 2008).

It is sometimes tough to rank older players with newer players, but even if a younger player holds more trade value right now, I am going to take into account each player’s entire career. For the young guys, I have to project a little bit, so keep that in mind as you read and react. I feel great about the top eight guys, but there are a few players that missed the list that are pretty interchangeable with #9 and #10.

On with the list…

10. Aaron Brooks, Rockets
26th pick in 2007
I had to decide between Brooks and Nate Robinson here and went with Brooks given his fine performance in the playoffs this season (16.8 ppg, 3.4 apg, 42% from 3PT) and how Robinson’s numbers are a little inflated playing for Mike D’Antoni. Brooks is not a natural point guard, but his sharpshooting is a good fit given Houston’s inside-out attack. He’s small, but he’s quick and is able to score at the rim when given some daylight. The Rockets feel good enough about Brooks to trade Rafer Alston away midseason, so you have to like his upside.

9. Kendrick Perkins, Celtics
27th pick in 2003 (drafted by the Grizzlies)
In the world of “big” guys, I also considered Boris Diaw here, but it’s tough to pass on a 6’10” 24-year-old who averaged 8.5 points, 8.1 rebounds and 2.0 blocks per game on a team loaded with vets. Without Kevin Garnett in the playoffs, the C’s needed Perkins to step up his game and he responded with 11.9 points, 11.6 boards and 2.6 blocks per contest. He also did a pretty good job on Dwight Howard, who had his worst numbers of the playoffs against the Celtics.

8. David Lee, Knicks
30th pick in 2005
Isiah Thomas couldn’t make a good trade to save his life, but he could spot talent in the draft. Lee has turned out to be a steal with the last pick in the 2005 draft. He’s an athletic lefty whose best traits are his hustle and smarts. In just his fourth season, Lee averaged 16.0 points and 11.7 rebounds per game, which made him one of the most consistent double-double guys in the league. His stock is so high right now that the Knicks might be able to use him as trade bait in order to land Chris Bosh or Amare Stoudemire. Maybe they’d be better off sticking with Lee…

Read the rest of this entry »

On Wednesday, after two straight narrow defeats at the hands of the Celtics, I asked, “Why can’t the Magic finish games?” I referenced an article by John Carroll, where he said the problem was four-fold:

1. The Magic don’t fully commit at the defensive end.
2. They refuse to pound the ball inside.
3. They fall in love with the three-point shot.
4. They don’t trust their coach the way the Celtics do.

I focused on #2, and threw in a couple of other problems:

5. Poor late-game play from Hedo Turkoglu and Rashard Lewis.
6. They don’t have a guy who can consistently get to the hole.

So what was the difference in the Magic’s win in Game 6?

1. Check…they held the Celtics to just 75 points, 13 in the fourth quarter.
2. Check…Dwight Howard attempted 16 shots and 12 free throws; both are series highs.
3. No change…the Magic were just 6 of 26 for the game.
4. It’s hard to gauge how much they trust Stan Van Gundy on a game-to-game basis. They responded with good defense and a strong game plan to feed Howard the ball, so they must trust his instruction to a certain extent.

5. What about Turkoglu and Lewis? Here are their fourth quarter stats:

Lewis: 2-5 (0-1 3PT), 8 points, 3 rebounds, steal, assist
Turkoglu: 1-5 (1-3 3PT), 3 points, 2 rebounds

So Lewis and Turkoglu went a combined 3 of 10 for 11 points and five rebounds in Game 6. They shot 3 of 15 for a total of 11 points (combined) in Game 4 and Game 5. Turkoglu didn’t play particularly well, but the one shot he hit in the fourth quarter was HUGE. It came with 1:23 remaining and the Magic clinging to a three-point lead. Lewis clearly played well. He shot just 40% in the quarter, but he got to the line twice for four more points, had an assist, a steal and drew an offensive foul on Kendrick Perkins.

6. Check…Courtney Lee and Rafer Alston each had key driving layups in the fourth quarter. To win close games down the wire, you have to have a player (or two) that are effective at getting into the lane and finishing. Alston and Lee stepped up in the fourth quarter for the Magic.

On the whole, the Magic did a better job across the board, save for some very suspect three-point shooting. But can they post a repeat performance in Game 7 in front of a very hostile crowd?

Two of the four best teams in the league square off tonight in Orlando. The Celtics come to town riding a six-game winning streak (which followed a four-game losing streak), while the Magic have won seven straight, and 16 of their last 18, which included wins over the Lakers (x 2), the Spurs (x 2) and the Hornets.

Much has been written about the Celtics, so let’s focus on the Magic. Orlando might be playing the best ball of anyone right now, and they’re really starting to remind me of the 1995 Houston Rockets squad that swept Shaquille O’Neal, Penny Hardaway and the rest of the Magic in the Finals to win their second straight title. They have a true center that commands a double-team (Hakeem Olajuwon = Dwight Howard), a slasher on the wing that can also shoot the ball (Clyde Drexler = Hedo Turkoglu), a sharpshooting power forward (Robert Horry = Rashard Lewis), an assassin of a point guard (Kenny Smith = Jameer Nelson) and his young protege (Sam Cassell = Courtney Lee). The Magic aren’t as deep as those Rockets were — remember Otis Thorpe, Vernon Maxwell and Mario Elie? — and while that may be their undoing come playoff time, it’s hard to imagine Boston or Cleveland’s bench dominating anyone.

The Magic are 5th in the league in offensive efficiency and 3rd in defensive efficiency, which is directly related to their ability to hold the opposition to 42.6% from the field. Stan Van Gundy has done a terrific job teaching the core — Howard, Nelson, Turkoglu and Lewis — how to play defense and there isn’t a coach in the league that is doing more with less, at least at the elite-team level. At this point, he’s my choice for Coach of the Year.

Tonight’s game will be a nice test for the young Magic, and their crowd. With the defending champs coming to town, there should be a playoff atmosphere at Amway Arena, with the fans rising to their feet early and often. If the crowd sits on its hands for much of the first half, the team might be in trouble come playoff time. A real home court advantage is crucial to winning in the playoffs — just ask the Celtics.

The game is scheduled for 8 PM ET on TNT.