Tag: College football predictions (Page 5 of 6)

      2009 College Football Week 10 Predictions

      November 4, 2009 /

      I’ve been on a roll of late, going 8-0 straight up the last two weeks and 7-1 against the spread. Let’s hope I didn’t just pour a big cup of jinx over everything this week.

      No. 9 LSU at No. 3 Alabama, 3:30PM ET
      A win this week secures the SEC West title for Alabama, while a victory for LSU puts them in the driver’s seat in the West, as well as keeps their national title hopes alive. While they eventually won the game thanks to a blocked field goal, there were some glaring issues with Alabama’s passing game in their victory over Tennessee two weeks ago. Mark Ingram is one of the best players in college football, but he can’t be expected to carry the offense week in and week out. Quarterback Greg McElroy must become more efficient in the passing game and test defenses vertically more than he has. The Tide beat the Tigers last year, but they had previously lost five straight to LSU so that’s a concern for Nick Saban. I don’t think the Tigers have enough offense to overcome the Tide’s No. 4 ranked defense, but this game is going to be close throughout and this might be another contest that isn’t decided for ‘Bama until the final seconds.
      Odds: Alabama –7.5.
      Prediction: Alabama 16, LSU 13.

      No. 16 Ohio State at No. 11 Penn State, 3:30PM ET
      This was supposed to be the game that decided things in the Big Ten. But with how well Iowa has played this year, one of these two teams will likely be knocked out of contention with a loss. It’s hard to imagine that OSU quarterback Terrelle Pryor will walk into Beaver Stadium the way that he has struggled this year and beat a good Penn State defense…with his arm. Pryor isn’t going to win this game throwing for 250 yards (does he ever throw for 250 yards?), but if he can keep the chains moving with his legs and not turn the ball over, I bet Ohio State wins this game with its defense. This is going to be your classic Big Ten defensive struggle and the Buckeyes are due to pull off an upset of this magnitude. Penn State knocked off Ohio State last year on its home turf, and I’m calling for the Buckeyes to return the favor this season.
      Odds: Penn State –3.5
      Prediction: Ohio State 17, Penn State 16.

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      2009 College Football Week 9 Picks & Predictions

      October 29, 2009 /

      No. 5 USC at No. 10 Oregon, 8:00PM ET ABC
      The game of the week is in Eugene this Saturday, as the Ducks host the Trojans in a battle for Pac-10 supremacy. The last time the Trojans traveled to Eugene, they were beaten 24-17 and if they don’t want to suffer defeat again this year, they better sure up their defense. Oregon ranks 14th in the nation in rushing and could take advantage of an aggressive USC front four that doesn’t always play disciplined. Running back LaMichael James has enough burst to bounce runs outside if the Trojans’ defensive ends are too quick to crash inside in efforts to take away runs between the tackles. On the flip side, Oregon’s O-line must protect quarterback Jeremiah Masoli better or else the Ducks’ passing game could be non-existent. Although the Trojans’ offense is starting to take shape under freshman Matt Barkley, Oregon has the sixth best pass efficiency defense in the country and are holding opponents to less than 17 points a game. I like the home team getting points in this matchup and am calling the outright upset.
      Odds: USC –3.5.
      Prediction: Oregon 27, USC 24.

      No. 3 Texas at No. 14 Oklahoma State, 8:00PM ET
      When I first looked at the point spread for this game, I was surprised to see that a good Oklahoma State team was getting nine points at home. But history doesn’t favor the Cowboys in this matchup and the Longhorns definitely have the overall edge. Although OK State has had its opportunities over the years, Texas has won the last 11 games in this matchup and Colt McCoy has owned the Cowboy defense. He has completed 79.4 percent of his passes for 1,019 yards and is 3-0 lifetime against OK State, including owning a 38-35 win in Stillwater in 2007. The Cowboys have won five straight, but they’ve feasted on teams like Rice, Grambling State, Baylor and inconsistent squads like Texas A&M and Missouri. This is a game that should be close throughout, but I actually like Texas to earn a sound victory. No. 2 Alabama is idle this week and the Longhorns will take this opportunity to thump a quality opponent in order to prove to the voters that they deserved to be ranked higher.
      Odds: Texas –9.
      Prediction: Texas 35, Oklahoma State 20.

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      College Football Picks & Predictions: Week 8

      October 23, 2009 /

      No. 1 Florida at Mississippi State, 7:30PM ET
      After a hard-fought win over LSU two weeks ago and a gift-wrapped (courtesy of the officials) victory over Arkansas last week, Florida will try to remain undefeated against a Mississippi State team that has had the Gators’ number in Starkville. Florida has dropped their last four games in Starkville and hasn’t won there since 1985. The Gators are too good defensively for the Bulldogs to pull off an upset, but with Florida’s lack of offensive firepower, Mississippi State will keep this game close until the end. Bulldogs head coach Dan Mullen is a former offensive coordinator at Florida, so his knowledge of the Gators’ program will aid him on Saturday but in the end, Mississippi State doesn’t have enough depth to beat Florida this season. Tim Tebow and company haven’t exactly been lighting up the scoreboard, so I like the Bulldogs to cover.
      Odds: Florida –22.5
      Prediction: Florida 27, Mississippi State 13.

      No. 13 Penn State at Michigan, 3:30PM ET
      The Nittany Lions haven’t won in Ann Arbor since 1996, which is why the point spread is so low in this matchup. But Penn State has won three straight by a combined score of 107-20 since their home loss to Iowa and they’ll be looking for a measure of revenge against a Michigan team that has had their number on the road. The Wolverines are too inconsistent on offense to hang with the Lions for four quarters, especially if they have trouble running the ball against PSU’s solid front seven. Offensively for the Nittany Lions, Evan Royster and Darryl Clark will keep the chains moving against a Michigan defense that has trouble getting off the field on third down. This won’t be a blow out because it’s in Ann Arbor, but Penn State will continue its winning ways.
      Odds: Penn State –4.
      Prediction: Penn State 20, Michigan 13.

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      2009 College Football Picks & Predictions Week 7

      October 15, 2009 /

      No. 20 Oklahoma at No. 3 Texas, 12:00PM ET
      It’s kind of a shame that this game is on at Noon on Saturday because it deserves primetime attention. Texas upset top ranked Oklahoma in the Red River Rivalry last year, but it’ll be hard for the Sooners to return the favor this season. Sam Bradford’s receivers didn’t help him in his return to action last week, dropping at least 10 passes. A fierce Texas pass rush could overwhelm Oklahoma’s inexperienced offensive line and force Bradford to unload the ball sooner than he wants to. Given how the Sooners’ front seven frustrated him last year, Colt McCoy could struggle as well, but I like the home team to win in what should be an emotional game.
      Odds: Texas –3.
      Prediction: Texas 33, Oklahoma 27.

      No. 22 South Carolina at No. 2 Alabama, 7:45PM ET
      Although the Gamecocks pose a threat with their defensive front seven, the Crimson Tide are the most complete team in the nation and should wear South Carolina down in the second half. The Gamecocks simply don’t have the horses up front to move ‘Bama’s front four at the point of attack and if South Carolina can’t stay balanced offensively, Stephen Garcia will struggle. It’s going to be hard for SC to move the ball on the ground against a talented Alabama linebacker corps and therefore Garcia should face plenty of third-and-longs. Some believe the Gamecocks will keep this one close, but after struggling at home last week against Kentucky, I see South Carolina getting rolled this weekend in a tough environment.
      Odds: Alabama –17.
      Prediction: Alabama 35, South Carolina 14.

      No. 11 Iowa at Wisconsin, 12:00PM ET
      The point spread in this game doesn’t make any sense. Why is a ranked Iowa team a 2.5-point underdog on the road against an unranked Wisconsin team that they’ve beaten in five of their last seven meetings? The Badgers’ best attribute is that they can run the ball (they’re gaining just over 200 yards per game on the ground), but the Hawkeyes are solid defensively, ranking 31 in the nation in total defense. So what gives? Simply put, Iowa has not looked great this season despite being undefeated. They will enter a hostile Camp Randall Stadium and could have trouble moving the ball offensively against a Wisconsin defense that swarms to the football. After being unable to get on track last Saturday against Ohio State, running backs John Clay and Zach Brown should carry the Badgers this week to an upset win. (If you can even all it an upset given that Wisconsin is favored.)
      Odds: Wisconsin –2.5.
      Prediction: Wisconsin 28, Iowa 24.

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      2009 College Football Picks & Predictions: Week 5

      October 1, 2009 /

      No. 4 LSU at No. 18 Georgia, 3:30PM ET
      Last year, Georgia rolled into Tiger Stadium and laid a 52-38 beat down on LSU as they forced three turnovers and running back Knowshon Moreno (now a Denver Bronco) racked up 163 yards on 21 carries. After an ugly 24-10 loss to Oklahoma State in the opening week of the season, the Bulldogs have rattled off three straight wins and will now face a Tiger team that struggled a bit offensively last week in a narrow 30-26 win over Mississippi State. LSU was outgained 374-263 and only rushed for 30 yards in the victory. The Tigers usually feast on pro-style offenses, so UGA quarterback Joe Cox can’t force throws in attempt to make something happen down field. That said, the Tigers haven’t been tested yet and needed a goal line stand to pull off the win last week. Georgia, on the other hand, has already faced a ranked OK State team and beaten competitive SEC foes South Carolina and Arkansas. The Bulldogs are more battle tested and will overcome a stiff Tiger defense.
      Odds: Georgia –3.
      Prediction: Georgia 24, LSU 20.

      No. 7 USC at No. 24 California, 8:00PM ET
      Don’t everyone break your legs jumping off the Cal bandwagon after Oregon smacked the Golden Bears 42-3 last week. Heisman candidate Jahvid Best rushed for only 55 yards in the loss and will face another tough challenge this week against a USC defense that held him to only 30 yards last season. The Trojans have the sixth best defense in the nation and the fifth best scoring defense. They have limited opponents to only 59.5 rushing yards per game and only 95 YPC threw the air. That said, Cal has played USC close over the years and the Trojans have kept things rather conservative offensively with freshman Matt Barkley under center. I see this game being close, although I don’t know if Kevin Riley can beat USC through the air if the Trojans’ front seven takes away Best.
      Odds: USC –4.5.
      Prediction: USC 20, Cal 17.

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