How the BCS breaks down heading into championship week

After Florida, Alabama and Texas all escaped rivals week with victories, the BCS standings remained unchanged this week. The Gators still hold the top spot, while the Crimson Tide are second and the Longhorns are third.

Heading into the final week of the season, here is how everything breaks down for each of the five BCS title contenders:

Florida: Tim Tebow and the Gators play Alabama in the SEC championship on Saturday and with a win, they’ll play in the title game. There’s always an outside chance that even if Florida losses this weekend, they could still play for a national title if Nebraska beats Texas and voters don’t rank an undefeated TCU or Cincinnati team in the No. 2 spot.

Alabama: A win over Florida on Saturday would catapult the Tide into the top spot in the BCS standings, which means they’ll play for a national championship. And just like Florida, ‘Bama still has an outside shot to play in the title game if Texas losses and voters decide to screw TCU or Cincinnati.

Texas: A win over Nebraska in the Big 12 championship would mean that the Longhorns would take on the winner of the SEC title game. A loss to the Cornhuskers would mean Texas has little to no shot of playing for a national title because the loser of the SEC champ game or undefeated TCU or Cincinnati would get the bid.

TCU: It’s now a waiting game for the Horned Frogs after they finished the regular season 12-0. They’ll be rooting for Texas to lose and they wouldn’t mind seeing either Florida or Alabama get blown out in the SEC title game in order to endure themselves to voters. A Cincinnati loss to Pittsburgh wouldn’t be a bad thing either.

Cincinnati: The Bearcats might be able to improve their ranking by beating Pittsburgh for the Big East championship on Saturday. With TCU idle, a good showing against a good Panthers team might convince voters that Cincinnati should leap frog over the Horned Frogs if Texas losses. That said, the Bearcats are still hoping for a miracle when it comes to playing in the title game.


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2009 BCS Bowl Projections Version 1.0

SI.com’s Stewart Mandel compiled his projections for all 34 bowl matchups and this is how things shook out in the BCS Bowls:

BCS Championship: Alabama vs. Texas
Orange: Georgia Tech vs. TCU
Fiesta: Iowa vs. Boise State
Sugar: Florida vs. Pittsburgh
Rose: Ohio State vs. Oregon

Is it just me or are those some pretty lousy matchups outside of the BCS title game (Colt McCoy vs. ‘Bama’s defense is intriguing, I don’t care what anyone says)? I’m not saying that those teams aren’t deserving of those bowls, but I’m not entirely sure I’d like to see Iowa play Boise in one of the “big” bowls.

That said, a Georgia Tech-TCU matchup would be intriguing because I would love to see the Horned Frogs try and defense the Jackets’ potent triple-option. TCU has one of the fastest and most aggressive defenses in the nation and it would be a thrill to watch them try and contain Jonathan Dwyer for four quarters.

Something tells me an Ohio State-Oregon matchup wouldn’t be that bad either outside of the fact that the Buckeyes always lay duds in bowl games. OSU has a solid defense, although Jeremiah Masoli and company might tear them to pieces.

Perhaps the most interesting takeaway from Mandel’s projections (outside of the fact that he has ‘Bama beating Florida in the SEC Championship Game, that is) is that he predicts Pittsburgh to beat Cincinnati in two weeks. The Bearcats can light up a scoreboard, but teams that can run straight at their defense have had success and the Panthers might be able to do that when the two teams square off next Saturday for the top spot in the Big East.’

For those of you who are like me that would rather see a playoff system determine the champion in college football, check out John Paulsen’s breakdown of how a postseason would look like this season.


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