Notice anything? Only one MIP winner in the last 16 years (Tracy McGrady) was drafted in the first 12 picks.

It appears that the voters don’t just look at overall improvement, they also take into account unexpected improvement.

Looking at TrueHoop’s list of MIP candidates that received more than one vote from a panel of voters, here are draft positions for each player: Kevin Durant (2), Andrew Bogut (1), Corey Brewer (7), Joakim Noah (9), Josh Smith (17), Russell Westbrook (4), Aaron Brooks (26), Anderson Varejao (30), Channing Frye (8), Al Horford (3), Andray Blatche (49) and Zach Randolph (19).

Can we safely cross Durant, Bogut, Noah, Westbrook, Frye and Horford off the list?

Actually, I’m not sure. I don’t remember a year when there were so many top candidates drafted in the first ten picks. The top non-lottery pick is Josh Smith, and he averaged more points and almost as many rebounds two seasons ago. I don’t think the writers are going to look at his career stats and think improvement even though he played much headier ball this season (as evidenced by his improved shot selection and increased assists).

Of all the non-lottery candidates, Aaron Brooks best fits the MIP profile. Here are his numbers year over year:

2008-09: 11.2 ppg, 3.0 apg, 2.0 rpg, 40% FG%, 37% 3PT
2009-10: 19.6 ppg, 5.3 apg, 2.7 rpg, 43% FG%, 40% 3PT

I think he’s going to win the award, but a case could be made for the first four players on the list:

1. Kevin Durant was supposed to get better, but I don’t think that there were too many pundits predicting a 30-8-3 season and 50 wins for the Thunder. He averaged 25-7-3 the year before, so his stats don’t really reflect his improvement. I think this will hurt him in the MIP race. (It also doesn’t help that he’s also on the short list for MVP.)

2. Andrew Bogut might be the darkhorse. Yes, he’s a former #1 overall pick, but he’s been around just long enough for people to give up on him. A little more than a year ago, a buddy of mine said he was a bust. I know he was trying to tweak me — I’m a sometimes-proud Bucks fan — but still, since he was the top overall pick, we’re expecting more than the 12-10 that Bogut posted in 2008-09. We were expecting a star, and that’s exactly what Bogut became this season. He averaged 16-10, and was second in the league in blocks (2.5) and fourth in charges drawn per game. In fact, he was second in the league in HoopData’s stat “DEF” which tallies the total number of blocks, steals and charges. (It should be noted that Josh Smith was the player ahead of him, though I don’t know that too many MIP voters dig this deep into statistics.) In the end, the Bucks’ emergence as a playoff team, Bogut’s improvement on both ends of the court, and his season-ending arm injury might produce a groundswell of support in terms of winning the MIP.

3. Corey Brewer averaged 6-3-2 last season and 13-3-2 this season. That’s a nice jump in scoring, but Brooks’ improvement was more impressive.

4. Joakim Noah averaged 7-8 last season and posted 11-11 this year. That’s also an impressive improvement, but we saw it coming, didn’t we? If Noah gets starters minutes, there’s a great chance that he’s going to post a d
ouble-double. It doesn’t fit the profile of unexpected improvement.

What about George Hill? He only got one vote from the TrueHoop panel, but the former 26th overall pick improved his numbers from 6-2-2 last season to 12-3-3 this season, and was a big reason why the Spurs stayed in the playoff picture even though they lost Tony Parker for part of the season.

So, in terms of the MIP profile — a big statistical jump from a non-lottery draft pick — I think Brooks is the frontrunner, but Bogut has an outside shot and Hill is the guy (almost) no one seems to be talking about.

But should anyone even want to win this award? In its history, no MIP winner has ever won a NBA championship. Strange, but true.

It looks like Anderson Varejao is staying in Cleveland.

Varejao’s contract is worth $42.5 million over the six years, and the final year is only partially guaranteed. Incentives could push the total amount to $50 million.

Varejao’s agent, Dan Fegan, says that the Cavs turned down a few sign-and-trade offers.

“I’m excited about it,” Fegan said. “I will tell you several teams made sign-and trade proposals where Anderson could have made $10 million or $11 million a year. Some very good players would have been involved.

“He wanted to stay in Cleveland. There were also a number of teams with cap space, like Oklahoma City and Portland, who were interested.”

I estimated Varejao’s value to be somewhere in the $5.5-$6.5 million per year range, so without the incentives, this contract came in a little bit above that. The thing I worry about from the Cavs’ perspective is the fact that it’s going to be tough to play Varejao and Shaquille O’Neal together because neither guy has the ability to hit an open 15-foot jumper. This will allow the defense to sag into the lane which will help to close off LeBron’s drives.

In addition, the Cavs have a verbal agreement with Anthony Parker (formerly of the Raptors) and have their sights set on Channing Frye.

The Cavs have also agreed to terms with Toronto free agent Anthony Parker. The final figures of the deal are not set, but he will receive a portion of the $5.8 mid-level exception for either two or three years.

The Cavs hope to sign Channing Frye with the remainder of their mid-level exception.

Shaq is clearly a short-term fix, but with the Varejao, Parker and possible Frye signings, and assuming the salary cap falls to somewhere in the $50 million to $53 million range, the Cavs aren’t going to have the cap space necessary next summer to woo a big-name free agent like Chris Bosh or Amare Stoudemire. They may still be able to work out a sign-and-trade, but with roughly $30 million already spoken for heading into 2010, the Cavs won’t have the cap space to make two maximum contract offers.

Cleveland is clearly treating this as a “must-win” season, but what happens if they flame out in the playoffs again?

Cavaliers forward Anderson Varejao has decided not to exercise his $6.2 million contract option for next season. In doing so, he becomes one of the NBA’s desirable unrestricted free agents, including Hedo Turkoglu, Ben Gordon, and Ron Artest.

The hustling Varejao posted career-highs in starts (42), scoring (8.6), field-goal percentage (.536) and minutes (28.5) per game last season for the Cavs, who won 66 regular-season games but were eliminated in the Eastern Conference finals by Orlando.

Cleveland general manager Danny Ferry has stated his intent to re-sign Varejao and the Cavs may offer him a contract during the free-agency signing period which starts on Wednesday.

The 6-foot-11 Varejao sat out a large chunk of last season in a contract dispute with Cleveland, but has said he wants to stay with the Cavs.

Varejao, who is only 26 years old, still seems like a great fit for the Cavs. Since Shaq will only be able to put in around 20 minutes per game, the Cavs will need another versatile big-man down low. Varejao has spent his entire NBA career with the Cavs and is in his prime, so it will be interesting to see how his future unfolds.

Once the draft is over, the next step of the NBA offseason is the free agency period. Negotiations start July 1, but players have to wait until July 8 to actually sign on the dotted line. Due to the economy, this promises to be an interesting summer, as more franchises seem to be trying to cut payroll than add talent. There are eight teams with significant cap space this summer, and there’s no guarantee that they’ll be willing to use it. Teams that are over the cap can add good players in two ways: 1) they can sign a player to the Mid-Level Exception (MLE), which will be around $5.8 million per season (and can be split up between two or more players), or 2) they can work out a sign-and-trade with the player’s old team.

Below is a list of the top unrestricted free agents this summer. These are players who can sign with whomever they like. They’re ranked in order of total value, which is based on overall talent, age, injury history and cost.

For each player, I’ll provide his position, age, Player Efficiency Rating (PER) and an estimate of what kind of contract he’s likely to sign.

1. Carlos Boozer, PF (27 years-old)
PER: 17.28
At press time, Boozer hasn’t officially opted out, but he is expected to. He can play another year for $12.3 million, but he thinks he’s due for a raise, and I don’t think he’s going to get the kind of raise he’s expecting. Boozer is one of the top 20 players in the league when healthy, but it’s that whole “when healthy” part that’s the problem. Over the past five seasons, he has missed a third of his team’s games. At 27, he’s in his prime, and assuming he has the right supporting cast, I think he can be one of a twosome or threesome on a championship-caliber team. Boozer may not get a raise this summer, but he could get long-term security. The Pistons, Raptors, Kings and Thunder all have the space to make a run at him, but Sacramento and OKC might consider themselves too far away from contending to add a big piece like Boozer. The Pistons seem like the best fit, but they are rumored to have more interest in Ben Gordon. There’s always the possibility that another team works out a sign-and-trade with Utah, but I don’t think anyone is going to give him a max deal, not in this economy.
Value: $12.0 – $13.0 million per year

2. Hedo Turkoglu, SF (30)
PER: 14.82
With the Magic’s trade for Vince Carter, and Turkoglu’s rumored demands for a five-year deal worth $50 million, the general consensus is that Hedo won’t be back in Orlando. I think the Magic would consider a three-year deal at around $8 million per season, but that would put the franchise in luxury tax territory for the foreseeable future. (It would also make them a contender, so it may be worth it.) The Blazers, Raptors and Kings are reportedly interested, but Toronto seems intent on re-signing Shawn Marion, so they may elect to go another direction. Still, at 30, he’s not going to be as effective in the last two years of the contract as he is in the first three, so a five-year deal may be asking too much.
Value: $8.0 – $9.0 million per year

3. Ben Gordon, SG (26)
PER: 17.02
The Bulls reportedly want to re-sign Gordon, but the Pistons seem interested and have a rumored promise of $11 million per season. That seems steep for Gordon, who is undersized for an off guard, doesn’t always have the best shot selection and has a reputation for being a less than stellar defender. He is an outstanding shooter and scorer, and can carry a team at times with his offensive ability. Gordon may sign for over $10 million per season, but I have a gut feeling that he’s going to regret the decision to turn down two different extensions from the Bulls over the last two years.
Value: $8.0 – $9.0 million per year

4. Ron Artest, F (29)
PER: 15.64
Artest played for $7.4 million last season, and I think his best bet for a contract that’s more than the MLE is with the Rockets. Don’t expect them to break the bank, as Daryl Morey knows that the Rockets probably won’t have much competition for Artest’s services. He brings a lot to the table, both good and bad. He’s not a great fit with any of the teams with significant cap space, so the Rockets might be able to lock him up to a three-year deal for a bit more than the MLE.
Value: $7.0 – $8.0 million per year

5. Trevor Ariza, SF (24)
PER: 15.51
Ariza really came on this season and was a big factor in the Lakers’ championship run. He averaged 11.3 points, 4.3 rebounds, 1.6 steals, and shot an astounding 48% in the postseason. That, plus his stellar defense, is exactly what the Lakers need out of the small forward position, and all indications are that they’ll be able to re-sign him. I’d expect a MLE-type deal, because he’s unlikely to leave L.A. even if another team offers him a little more money. The Blazers and Kings could both make a run at him, but they would probably need to offer him $7 million or more per season to pry him away from L.A.
Value: $5.5 – $6.5 million per year

6. Jason Kidd, PG (36)
PER: 16.95
Barring a sign-and-trade, Portland and Atlanta are the only teams in the market for Kidd’s services that could offer him more than a mid-level deal. The general consensus is that he’ll re-sign with the Mavs, though at 36, I doubt Dallas gives him more than a two-year deal. I think Mark Cuban will do what it takes to keep Kidd in town, or else he’d have to deal with the ramifications that the Kidd-for-Devin Harris deal was a disaster. (He’s still in denial.)
Value: $7.5 – $8.5 million per year

7. Lamar Odom, F (29)
PER: 16.60
Odom has said in the past that he can’t imagine not living near the beach, so I don’t think that the Lakers have to come very strong to retain his services for another two or three years. Most of the teams with cap space could use him, but I think he’ll stay put. When he plays to his potential, his value is well over $10 million per season, but given his age and tendency to disappear for long stretches, I think the Lakers will get a hometown discount. I don’t see another team offering him enough to leave L.A.
Value: $7.0 – $8.0 million per year

8. Shawn Marion, F (31)
PER: 16.02
The Raptors have said that they intend to re-sign the Matrix, and he played well for them when they went 9-4 down the stretch. His reputation of being a bit of a malcontent will work against him in this market, though he’s bound to sign for more than the mid-level. He still has two or three good seasons before his skills start to decline.
Value: $7.0 – $8.0 million per year

9. Mehmet Okur, FC (30)
PER: 17.59
Okur has the option to play another year (for $9 million), but at press time, the feeling was that he was almost certain to opt out. He had a great year, averaging 17.0 points, 7.7 rebounds and shooting almost 45% from long range, and there are a number of teams — the Thunder, Pistons, Raptors and Kings — that could use him. He isn’t a good help defender, but he’s physical on the block and is a pretty good defensive rebounder. I think he’ll stick with the Jazz, but he’ll test the waters first.
Value: $8.0 – $9.0 million per year

10. Andre Miller, PG (33)
PER: 18.71
Statistically speaking, Miller’s last two seasons were two of his best, and he proved that he’s not over the hill. He’d be a good fit with the Blazers, but so far there has been no confirmation of interest. The Hawks are another team that could use his leadership, and it looks like Mike Bibby may be on his way out of town. Besides those two teams, Miller’s best bet is to re-sign with the Sixers (who just drafted the raw Jrue Holiday) or take a mid-level deal with a contender in need of point guard help.
Value: $6.0 – $7.0 million per year

11. Rasheed Wallace, FC (34)
PER: 14.91
Wallace says he wants more than the mid-level, but I’m not sure that’s what the market is going to bear. He’ll likely sign with a contender, and other than the Blazers (and maybe the Hawks) all of the contenders are over the cap. That leaves two options: 1) a mid-level deal or 2) a sign-and-trade. At 34, it’s going to be interesting to see how long of a deal he gets, as his game looked to be on the decline last season.
Value: $5.5 – $6.5 million per year

12. Allen Iverson, G (34)
PER: 15.89
AI is in a tough spot. He’s a former MVP that is at his best when his team is built around him — only his skills aren’t quite good enough to justify that. His move to Detroit was a disaster, so he hasn’t been able to prove that he’s willing to accept a lesser role to benefit his team. This makes him a very risky addition for a contender. I don’t see any of the teams with cap space rolling the dice, but will Iverson sign a mid-level deal? That might be his only option at this point.
Value: $5.5 – $6.5 million per year

13. Mike Bibby, PG (31)
PER: 16.38
Bibby was better in his first full season with the Hawks, but Atlanta just traded for Jamal Crawford and drafted Jeff Teague, so Bibby’s stint in Atlanta is likely over. Portland could use his services, but there hasn’t been any indication out of the Pacific Northwest that that’s the case. He’s not much of a creator, so he’d be the best fit for a team that would ask him to knock down open shots (i.e. the Rockets, Heat, Lakers, Mavs). I think he’ll eventually sign for a playoff team at the MLE.
Value: $5.5 – $6.5 million per year

14. Brandon Bass, PF (24)
PER: 16.49
Bass has performed well in limited minutes behind Dirk Nowitzki, but it might be time for a change of scenery. While his PER has been 16+ the last two seasons, he’s still pretty much flying under the radar. At just 24, he still has room to grow, and he’s already a solid offensive player. He’s probably a 14/7 guy as a starter, but he’s more likely going to join a contender at or near the mid-level and come off the bench.
Value: $4.5 – $5.5 million per year

15. Chris Andersen, FC (31)
PER: 18.16
“The Birdman” brought great energy off the Denver bench and even outplayed Nene at times. I criticized the Nuggets for giving Marcus Camby away, but clearly it was Andersen that made it possible. At 31, he’s no spring chicken, but he’s certainly in line for a raise. He’s a great shotblocker and rebounder, and is decent when he’s asked to catch the ball and finish. But he isn’t particularly good as a post defender and has limited outside touch. He strikes me as another near mid-level guy.
Value: $4.5 – $5.5 million per year

16. Anderson Varejao, FC (26)
PER: 14.62
Varejao is tough on the class and has the potential to be a hard-nosed defender, yet he spends a lot of time flopping to the floor looking for the call. His offensive game is non-existent (and isn’t improving), and as a liability on that end of the court, he’s not going to get the kind of contract he’s expecting. As Jeff Van Gundy has pointed out, it’s going to be tough for the Cavs to play Shaq and Varejao at the same time, which makes him sort of expendable in Cleveland. They may re-sign him so that Shaq can get a game off from time to time, but I don’t think they’re going to meet his asking price. I don’t know that any of the teams with cap space would be willing to pay more than the mid-level for 6’11” defender/rebounder with no discernible offensive game. Someone will offer him a mid-level deal.
Value: $5.5 – $6.5 million per year

Other notables: Grant Hill, Kyle Korver, Zaza Pachulia, Dahntay Jones, Antonio McDyess, Drew Gooden, Anthony Parker, Flip Murray, Stephon Marbury, Wally Szczerbiak, Joe Smith, Anthony Carter, Von Wafer, Marquis Daniels, Rodney Carney, Shelden Williams, Chris Wilcox, Desmond Mason, Matt Barnes

That wraps up the significant unrestricted free agent. Check back on Monday, when I’ll break down this summer’s group of restricted free agents.

Related content:

The Top Restricted Free Agents of 2009
Which NBA teams will have cap space this summer?
The Top 10 NBA Free Agents of 2010

Ben Wallace is considering retirement, Anderson Varejao is likely to opt out of the final year of his contract, and Zydrunas Ilgauskas will play out the final year of his.

Wallace is guaranteed the money and has every right to come back and accept the checks under terms of the deal. More likely if he couldn’t play, the Cavs would look to perhaps get insurance to cover some of the salary and look to trade him. He’d be a valuable commodity because of the expiring contract and teams looking to dump salaries covet them.

There is also a possibility that Wallace could negotiate a buyout of his deal and take a percentage of what he’s owed. But even in that case it would potentially make him a huge trade asset. A team could trade for him at the value of his contract ($14 million) and then save money by buying him out.

I’m not quite an NBA salary cap expert, but I have a pretty good understanding of the rules. Even so, I’m not sure what the financial impact would be of what Wallace is considering. Without Wallace and Varejao, but with Ilgauskas, the Cavs are on the hook for about $53 million, possibly a bit less since there are a few contracts included that aren’t 100% guaranteed. If Wallace were to come completely off the books, that would put the Cavs about $5 million under the cap, which really doesn’t help them all that much since they can already sign a player at the mid-level for about $5.8 million. Where a team really gains an advantage is when they have substantially more than the mid-level in cap space.

Wallace could be a great trade asset with his giant salary and willingness to take a buyout. The Cavs could use that trade chip to pry a good player away from a team looking to cut salary. Typically, these aren’t going to be franchise-type players; they’re going to be overpaid stars. Think Michael Redd or Vince Carter, not Dwyane Wade or Chris Paul. Speaking of the Hornets, they tried to give Tyson Chandler away last season and the Cavs would be a good trade partner if they were thinking about finding a better matchup for Dwight Howard next year. The bottom line is that in this economy, the Cavs are in a position of strength because they are motivated to spend.

As for Varejao, he may find that passing on next year’s guaranteed salary of $6.2 million may be a mistake. He’s not going to find anyone willing to pay him the $10 million per season that his camp seems to want, but there is probably a team out there that will give him the security of a four- or five-year deal at the mid-level. He’ll probably be giving up the chance to play for a contender, and may find himself out of the limelight that follows LeBron everywhere he goes. This can be both a blessing and a curse.

Ilgauskas playing out the final year of his contract is no surprise. He’s 33, and he isn’t going to find anyone else to pay him the $11.5 million that the Cavs owe him for next season.

One thing is for sure — Cavs GM Danny Ferry is on the hot seat.

Not familiar with the NBA salary cap? Here’s a quick primer…

1. The cap for the 2008-09 season was $58.7 million. The general consensus is that the cap will stay flat or decrease slightly. We’ll assume it sticks at $58.7 million.

2. If a team is over the cap, the only free agents they can sign are their own, unless they elect to sign a player to the mid-level exception (~$5.8 million per season), the bi-annual exception (~$2.0) or to a minimum contract. (The bi-annual exception may not be used in two consecutive years.)

3. If a team is under the cap, they can sign any free agent they want as long as they do not exceed the cap. They can also take on salary via trade up to the cap, so a team like the Grizzlies (with almost $20 million in cap space) could conceivably trade their first round pick to the Suns for Amare Stoudemire or to the Raptors for Chris Bosh.

Here’s a list of the bigger names in the free agent pool this summer:

Unrestricted: Carlos Boozer, Ben Gordon, Ron Artest, Lamar Odom, Andre Miller, Shawn Marion, Jason Kidd, Hedo Turkoglu, Allen Iverson, Mehmet Okur, Rasheed Wallace, Mike Bibby, Anderson Varejao, Grant Hill, Kyle Korver, Trevor Ariza, Brandon Bass, Chris Andersen, Zaza Pachulia, Chris Wilcox and Drew Gooden

Restricted: David Lee, Paul Millsap, Ray Felton, Josh Childress*, Marvin Williams, Glen Davis, Ramon Sessions, Charlie Villanueva, Nate Robinson, Leon Powe, Hakim Warrick, Linas Kleiza, Jarrett Jack and Shannon Brown

* It appears that if Childress does return to the NBA, the Hawks still hold his rights, so he would be a restricted free agent.

There are eight teams that project to have more than $5.8 million (the value of the mid-level exception) in cap space this summer:

Memphis Grizzlies
Projected Cap Space: $19.7 million
Memphis has been reluctant to spend for several years now and is probably one of the franchises that’s struggling the most in the current economy. I lived in Memphis for three years, and given its small size and overall lack of wealth, I always thought that it would struggle to support a professional sports team. With a core of Rudy Gay, O.J. Mayo and Marc Gasol, the Grizzlies have to feel pretty good about what they have at off guard, small forward and center. The big decision this summer is what to do with restricted free agent Hakim Warrick. When dealing with bad teams, numbers can be deceptive, because no matter what, somebody has to score and rebound, right? Warrick’s PER (16.91) is #24 amongst power forwards, so ideally he’d be coming off the bench for a playoff team. The Grizzlies projected cap space assumes they make the qualifying offer to Warrick ($3.0 million). Memphis is one of those teams that could really use the services of a Carlos Boozer, David Lee or Paul Millsap, but in this economy, are the Grizzlies willing to make that kind of a commitment? They could try to make a run at Chris Bosh or Amare Stoudemire next summer, but the odds are long that either guy would want to play for the Grizzlies.

Detroit Pistons
Projected Cap Space: $19.6 million
Unless they’re thinking about keeping Rasheed Wallace around, the Pistons don’t really have any big decisions this summer when it comes to personnel already on the roster. The Chauncey Billups-for-Allen Iverson swap was designed to free up cap space and in those terms, it worked beautifully. Sure, the Pistons gave up any chance of a deep run in the playoffs by trading Billups away, but the writing was on the wall – i.e. the Pistons weren’t going to the Finals – so Dumars chose to start the rebuilding process earlier rather than later. Neither Iverson nor ‘Sheed are likely to be back, but Wallace has a better chance of returning, however slight. The Pistons appear to be building around Tayshaun Prince and Rodney Stuckey (and Rip Hamilton?), but those are complementary players, not franchise-types. Joe Dumars built a winner without a true franchise player before, and he can do it again. The Pistons need size. Keep an eye on the Jazz. If Boozer opts out, he could land in Detroit, but if he doesn’t, the Pistons could go after Paul Millsap since the Jazz would have a tough time matching a substantial offer.

Atlanta Hawks
Projected Cap Space: $17.8 million
Mike Bibby, Zaza Pachulia and Flip Murray are unrestricted free agents and Marvin Williams is a restricted free agent, so the Hawks could have a very different roster heading into next season. Both the Hawks and Bibby are saying the right things, but can the two come to terms on a fair deal? There’s no way that Bibby is worth what he made last season ($15.0 million), but how much is he willing to come down to return to Atlanta? Looking at this list, would there be another team wiling to offer him more than the mid-level? Memphis? Detroit? Toronto? Minnesota? Nope. Oklahoma City? Sacramento? Probably not. Portland? Maybe. The point is that in this economy, by playing hardball the Hawks should be able to re-sign him for a two-year deal averaging around $7 million per season. I’m not sure that he’s even worth that at this point in his career (remember – he’s 31), but if the Hawks want him back, they need to be careful not to overpay. Likewise, is Marvin Williams worth the $7.4 million it’s going to cost to keep him around for another season? He’s just 22 and already has the 13th-best PER amongst small forwards. Then there’s Josh Childress, who can return from Greece as a restricted free agent. With all these decisions and all this potential cap space, the Hawks promise to be one of the most interesting franchises to watch this summer.

Oklahoma City Thunder
Projected Cap Space: $17.1 million
With a young, improving core of Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook, as well as a likely top 5 draft pick, the Thunder seem primed for a good season. Westbrook is more of an off guard than a pure point, so they could use a lead guard, as well as some help on the front line. They could go after Boozer, Millsap or David Lee, and are one of the teams that could easily snatch Ramon Sessions away from my beloved Bucks. The question is whether they’ll go after inexpensive young guys that can grow with Durant and Westbrook (Lee, Millsap, Sessions) or go after an established star (Boozer, Kidd, Bibby, etc.) with the thinking that they’ll become instant contenders. With their cap space, the Thunder could afford to add two or three starter- or star-level players, or they could elect to bide their time and try to add a superstar next summer.

Sacramento Kings
Projected Cap Space: $13.7 million
The Kings have good cap flexibility, but have serious lack of talent. They have one star – Kevin Martin – who is locked up for the next four years at a pretty reasonable price. Jason Thompson and Spencer Hawes have some upside, while Andres Nocioni and Francisco Garcia are decent role players. The Kings made the mistake in giving Beno Udrih a long-term deal, so now they have to pay him an average of almost $7 millon over the next four years. Ugh. All right, so how do they turn this thing around? First, they have to hit in the draft. Ideally, that means Blake Griffin, whom they can pencil in at power forward for the next five years. Then they would need to find a good young point guard (Sessions?) that can grow with the Kings’ young lineup. Throw in a value at small forward (Josh Childress, Marvin Williams, Trevor Ariza, etc.) and the Kings would be much better next season. Not “playoff” better, but they’d probably win 10-15 more games. Baby steps.

Toronto Raptors
Projected Cap Space: $11.6 million
What are the chances of Chris Bosh re-signing if the Raptors have another miserable year? By trading Jermaine O’Neal to Miami for Shawn Marion (and his expiring contract), the Raptors have some financial flexibility this summer. If Toronto were to sign a premier big man like Carlos Boozer, David Lee or Paul Millsap, they would improve their chances of winning this season (and keeping Bosh around) while also giving themselves some insurance if Bosh bolts. Toronto already has two of the most important pieces to winning in the NBA: (1) a good point guard in Jose Calderon and (2) a good big man in Bosh. But over the last couple of years they have struggled to find the right complementary pieces. O’Neal didn’t work out, but the Raptors were 10-6 over their last 16 games with Marion, so one option would be to bring the Matrix back at a discounted price. Another free agent to keep an eye on is Ben Gordon. With his ability to put the ball in the hoop, he would thrive in an up-tempo attack and could really take the pressure off of Bosh and Calderon. Besides, the Raptors need a shooting guard now that the 33-year-old Anthony Parker looks to be over the hill.

Portland Trail Blazers
Projected Cap Space: $9.8 million
The Blazers are unique on this list in that they are a playoff team that has some cap space, but they won’t have to use it to keep their core players in town. Portland could add a legitimate star-level player to a roster already loaded with talent. They are set on the wing with Brandon Roy, Rudy Fernandez and Travis Outlaw, and are pretty strong up front with LaMarcus Aldridge, Greg Oden and Joel Przybilla, so the major need seems to be at the point where Steve Blake is more of a placeholder than the point guard of the future. Jerryd Bayless is also a possibility, but his playing time dried up as the Blazers got closer to the playoffs. There are a number of good point guards available – Jason Kidd, Andre Miller, Mike Bibby – or the Blazers could go younger and try to pry Ramon Sessions or Ray Felton away from the Bucks and Bobcats, respectively. Portland has some good mojo working, and the guys least likely to upset the apple cart are experienced, pass-first points like Kidd or Miller. The Blazers could offer them more than the mid-level, which gives Portland the inside track on either player (if they want it).

Minnesota Timberwolves
Projected Cap Space: $7.8 million
The T-Wolves actually look like they’re turning things around. They have an up-and-coming big man (Al Jefferson) and they hit in the draft, finding an efficient, heady power forward (Kevin Love). If I’m running this team – and I’m more qualified than Bill Simmons, who is campaigning for the position – I’d move Randy Foye to off guard and tell him to shoot 200-250 three-pointers per day this summer. Then I’d use my cap space to steal Ramon Sessions away from the Bucks. Mike Miller could play small forward for another season, so I’d use my draft pick on the best player available, preferably a shooting guard who could join Sessions and Foye in a three-guard rotation. Josh Childress and/or Marvin Williams would be a great fit, and might be had for the mid-level (or use the cap space on Childress/Williams and sign Sessions to the mid-level). I’d end up with a core of Sessions, Foye, Childress/Williams, Love and Jefferson – all under the age of 26. Like a fine wine, I’d wait a couple of years for this group to age, and add a piece here or there to complement this core. We’d be in the playoffs by 2011, I’m telling you…

With the Mavericks’ 106-93 Game 5 win in San Antonio, it is the first time that Tim Duncan has lost a first round series. Tony Parker shot 55% from the field, and averaged 28.6 points, 6.8 assists and 4.2 rebounds per game. Battling sore knees, Duncan still shot 53% from the field, averaging 19.8 points and 8.0 rebounds. Normally, those kinds of numbers from the Spurs’ top two players would result in a series win. What happened?

1. No supporting cast.
Manu Ginobili was out. Duh. But the rest of the Spurs failed to step up in his absence. Parker and Duncan combined to shoot 100 of 185 (54%) in the series, which means everyone not named Tim or Tony combined to make just 75 of their 198 attempts (38%). Roger Mason shot 42% from long range during the season, but made just 37% in the series. The midseason addition of Drew Gooden was a bust; he averaged just 7.3 points and 3.8 rebounds, and shot 33% from the field. Without Ginobili, there wasn’t a third scorer to take the pressure off of Parker and Duncan.

2. Mediocre defense.
The Mavs averaged 96.4 points per game, shot better than 46% from the field and better than 38% from long range during the series. Now those numbers are by no means eye-popping, but they are very un-Spurs-like. San Antonio just couldn’t get the consistent stops it needed to make up for its overall lack of scoring. Josh Howard and Dirk Nowitzki were both stellar, while J.J. Barea and Brandon Bass played great off the bench when Dallas needed it.

The Spurs head into the summer with zero cap space, but with the fiscal state of the league, they’ll have a good opportunity to add a quality player at the mid-level exception, assuming they want to spend the money. My guess is that they will, given that Tim Duncan’s championship window continues to get smaller and smaller. The team is fine in the backcourt, with Parker, Ginobili, Mason and George Hill. They need help on the wing and in the frontcourt, so the priority will likely be a big man. Rasheed Wallace’s name has been floated, but Zaza Pachulia, Anderson Varejao, Brandon Bass, Chris Andersen and Antonio McDyess are cheaper options.