The POTUS makes his picks…
Hard to argue with any of his picks, but I don’t think Villanova is going to the Final Four this year. Yes, their guards are good, but they’re lacking size now that Dante Cunningham is gone.
Tag: 2010 NCAA Tournament (Page 12 of 17)
The NCAA Tournament starts tomorrow, so I thought it would be interesting to take a look at the first two days worth of games and compare the line with Jeff Sagarin’s ratings (that I used to make my bracket picks) and see if there were any games that stood out as good values. Here’s what I found:
The idea is that if a line differs greatly from the Sagarin line, and the Sagarin lines are accurate, then it should be a good value wager. Of the 31 games (Duke/Arkansas-Pine Bluff was off the books), 11 had lines that were within one point of the Sagarin difference between the two teams. Nine were between 1.0-2.0 points away from the Sagarin line. Eight were within 2.0-3.0 points away, two were 3.0-4.0 points away and just one was more than four points away. Here’s a look at the games that differed the most from the Sagarin line, in descending order:
Richmond (-2.5) vs. St. Mary’s
Sagarin says that the Gaels actually have almost a two-point advantage over the Spiders, so the value bet here would be St. Mary’s +2.5. My problem with this wager is that St. Mary’s has to fly cross country to Rhode Island and play at 11:50 AM PT. Every team is different, but jet lag and Circadian rhythms are tough to quantify. Playing at noon probably isn’t going to have as big of an effect as tipping-off at, say, 10 PM.
Oklahoma State (-1.5) vs. Georgia Tech
Sagarin pegs the Yellow Jackets as a 2.3-point favorite in this game, so the line appears to be “off” by almost four points. Georgia Tech +1.5 would be the value bet here, and it looks pretty solid. Freshman Derrick Favors is really coming on, so if Georgia Tech can keep its turnovers under control, they should be able to advance.
Notre Dame (-2.5) vs. Old Dominion
The Monarchs are actually a 1.0-point favorite according to Sagarin, but the Irish are playing well of late, so I wouldn’t recommend this bet. Prior to losing to WVU by two in the Big East tourney, the Irish rattled off six straight wins against Pittsburgh (twice), Georgetown, Marquette, Seton Hall and a desperate UConn team. Notre Dame is playing a slower style that suits its personnel.
California vs. Louisville (pick ’em)
Sagarin pegs the Golden Bears as 2.9-point favorites, but it’s tough to go with Cal here seeing as they have to fly cross country to Jacksonville. However, the game is at 9:45 PM ET, which might play with the Cardinals’ Circadian rhythms a bit in the second half. Most kids aren’t used to playing basketball at 11 PM at night. To the Cal players, it will seem like a 6:45 tip-off.
Purdue (-4) vs. Siena
Sagarin thinks the Boilermakers are a 6.7-point favorite, so to the computer, Purdue is the value pick here. But the numbers can’t account for the loss of Robbie Hummel, so I wouldn’t touch the Boilermakers with a 10-foot pole.
Texas A&M (-3) vs. Utah State
Sagarin only gives A&M a 0.3-point advantage, so Utah State is the value pick here. The game is in Spokane which would seem to support this wager. This one I like.
To recap, the three wagers that seem reasonable are St. Mary’s +2.5, Georgia Tech +1.5 and Utah State +3. Unfortunately, the St. Mary’s and Utah State picks go against my bracket picks. So it’s a good thing that betting on sports is illegal in most parts of the country, right?
CBS analyst and SI writer Seth Davis is partnering with Coke Zero in promoting their Department of Fannovation Brain Bracket, where 64 hand-picked ideas to improve the fan experience will go head-to-head in single elimination format until a winner is announced. (My favorite is the one where arenas would have actual working decibel monitors pop up on the big screen to encourage the crowd to make more noise.)
Seth took time out of his busy schedule this week to chat with TSR about Kentucky’s youth, Duke’s versatility, tournament expansion and even the NBA’s age-limit rule.
The Scores Report: Hey Seth, how are you doing?
Seth Davis: Doing all right, man, how are you doing?
TSR: Good to talk to you. It’s an exciting week of basketball.
SD: Yeah, it’s always good this time of year. It’s the best.
TSR: I just saw your video of your Final Four picks over at SI.com, and it turns out we have the same picks.
SD: That is definitely the most popular combination, it sounds like. I don’t know if that’s a good sign for you.
TSR: Yeah I don’t know either. Is there any pressure when you’re doing these picks, not to pick four #1 seeds?
SD: You know what, there kind of is. There’s a little bit of pressure to look for upsets, but I try to do what I honestly think, and in the past, I’m usually Mr. Upset, but looking at this bracket, I wasn’t feeling it. I wish I felt otherwise. It might surprise people to learn given how brilliant my picks are, when they hand me that bracket in the studio, before the selection show, I take about four minutes to fill out the whole thing. I just go with my instinct and go with what I see, and that’s where my pen led me.
It seems like as soon as the brackets were announced on Sunday, all of the pundits were circling the 5/12 matchup between Temple (A-10 champs) and Cornell (Ivy League champs) as an upset special. Here are two conflicting takes on the game from the Giant Killers blog and Eamonn Brennan at ESPN. First up is the GK blog:
We hate it when our model agrees with the pundits. So, allow us to say this: They’re jumping on our bandwagon, not the other way around. This is the most likely upset in the entire first round. Where do we start? How about from downtown? Cornell’s 88.4 GK rating (second-best in GK history) is in large part due to ridiculous 3-point shooting. Not only do the Big Red lead the country at 43.8 percent shooting from beyond the arc; 3s also account for 39.1 percent of their scoring. That type of high-risk approach signifies most successful GKs.
Temple can battle Cornell in this area because the Owls do have the nation’s second-toughest 3-point field goal defense (28.1 percent). However, the Owls have other problems. They don’t force turnovers (just 18.2 percent of opponents’ possessions, 286th in the country), and they grab offensive rebounds on only 33 percent of missed shots. What does that mean? They let opponents maximize possessions, and with Cornell, those possessions are worth a lot. Add in that Cornell protects the ball (turnover percentage of 18.7) and keeps opponents off the offensive glass (just 30.2 percent), and you have even more reasons to believe in an upset.
Want one more? Cornell outscored its opponents by more than a dozen points per game this season, yet was outscored at the free throw line. That has a strong correlation toward Giant Killing success. The Big Red have everything necessary to leave the Owls asking “Who?”
And now, from Brennan’s “Bracket babble” post:
I’m interviewing CBS’s Seth Davis later today, so I thought I’d go over to SI.com and bone up on his bracket picks. It turns out he has the same Final Four picks as mine: Kansas, Syracuse, West Virginia and Duke.
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