Tag: 2010-11 college basketball (Page 5 of 14)

How did Arizona beat Duke?

Arizona Wildcats players celebrate during their NCAA West Regional college basketball game against the Duke Blue Devils in Anaheim, California March 24, 2011. REUTERS/Lucy Nicholson (UNITED STATES – Tags: SPORT BASKETBALL)

Derrick Williams played a nearly perfect first half, and then his supporting cast played a nearly perfect second half.

It’s really that simple.

If not for Williams, Duke might have blown Arizona out in the first 20 minutes. The sophomore forward went 8-for-11 from the field (5-of-6 from 3PT) for 25 points to go along with six rebounds, three steals and a block. That’s all in a half, people. Not a game. A half. His deep three as time expired cut the Duke lead from nine to six, and gave Arizona some momentum heading into intermission.

One category that coaches and statheads both look at is offensive efficiency, which is the number of points per possession that an offense scores in any given game. Since each offensive rebound starts a new possession, one stat I like to look at is the number of points per trip. In the second half, the Wildcats scored 55 points on 35 trips, or 1.57 points per trip. The sign of a good offense is generally 1.0 point per trip, so Arizona’s work in the half was nothing short of outstanding.

Arizona missed just 16 shots in the second half (making 21), but gathered 12 (twelve!) offensive rebounds, so along with three turnovers, the Wildcats only had eight scoreless trips in the second half. That means that they scored on 27 of their 35 (77%) trips in the final 20 minutes. That’s a truly an amazing half of basketball.

Arizona made nearly all its open shots and hit several tough leaners and fadeaways that aren’t typically high percentage shots. They took care of the ball — remember the aforementioned three turnovers — and made every correct decision when Duke’s defense came over to help or trap.

That said, Duke still had a chance to make a run with about six minutes to play. The Blue Devils cut the lead from 14 to 11 and forced an Arizona miss, but Nolan Smith couldn’t convert a semi-tough layup to get the lead under 10. Had that shot gone in, the pressure would have been back on the Wildcats, and the game might have been tighter at the end. But it didn’t fall and Arizona went on a 5-0 run to push the lead back to 16. Wheels off. Game over.

Thursday’s Sweet 16 Roundup

Arizona Wildcats’ Derrick Williams celebrates against the Duke Blue Devils during their NCAA West Regional college basketball game in Anaheim, California March 24, 2011. REUTERS/Lucy Nicholson (UNITED STATES – Tags: SPORT BASKETBALL)

UConn 74, SDSU 69
Kemba Walker scored 36 and Jeremy Lamb chipped in 24 (and was big down the stretch) as the Huskies overcame a partisan SDSU crowd in Anaheim.

Florida 83, BYU 74 (OT)
Jimmer went cold in OT (0-2 FG, two turnovers) and the Gators pulled away with a balanced attack.

Arizona 93, Duke 77
Duke led by six at halftime, but Arizona’s played near-perfect ball in the second half, outscoring the Blue Devils 55-33 over the final 20 minutes. Derrick Williams had 32 points and 17 rebounds, while Lamont Jones added 16 points. The SDSU fans stayed and rooted for Arizona, which made it even tougher on the Blue Devils.

Butler 61, Wisconsin 54
The Badgers were down 20 in the second half, but cut Butler’s lead to four with 1:40 to play. Shelvin Mack and Shawn Vanzant brought the Bulldogs home.

Sweet 16 schedule for all time zones

It can be a pain to figure out what time a certain game is on, especially if you don’t live in the Eastern Time Zone, which obviously believes it’s the center of the universe. Damn ET.

THURSDAY

ETCTMTPTMATCHUPTV
7:156:155:154:15(3) UConn vs. (2) SDSUCBS
7:276:275:274:27(3) BYU vs. (2) FloridaTBS
9:458:457:456:45(5) Arizona vs. (1) DukeCBS
9:578:577:576:57(8) Butler vs. (4) WisconsinTBS

FRIDAY

ETCTMTPTMATCHUPTV
7:156:155:154:15(11) Marquette vs. (2) North CarolinaCBS
7:276:275:274:27(12) Richmond vs. (1) KansasTBS
9:458:457:456:45(4) Kentucky vs. (1) Ohio StateCBS
9:578:577:576:57(11) VCU vs. (10) Florida StateTBS

Sweet 16 Sagarin & Pomeroy data

If you’ve read my annual March Madness bracket column or if you are a stathead in general, you’ll know what the title of this post means. If you don’t, check out my column and come back.

Here are the next eight matchups representing Sweet 16 of the NCAA Tournament. The Sagarin advantage represents the spread in Jeff Sagarin’s predictor ratings. If the number is positive, it means that Team A is the Sagarin favorite. If the number is negative, then it means Team B (and the lower seed) is actually the favorite.

The Pomeroy % represents the chances that Team A will win the game according to Ken Pomeroy’s Pythagorean calculation.

Over the last four years, teams with a 2+ point advantage in Sagarin’s “predictor” rating have won 156 of 198 games (78.7%). Over the last two years, if a team had at least a 65% expected win rate according to Pomeroy’s Pythagorean calculation, they won 61 of 76 games (80.2%).

I’ve also included the spread for each game at the World Sports Exchange. Oftentimes the spread is very close to the Sagarin spread.

Team ATeam BSag AdvPom %Spread
San Diego StateConnecticut1.459.4%+1
FloridaBYU-2.543.7%-2.5
DukeArizona8.983.8%-9
WisconsinButler7.480.0%-4
North CarolinaMarquette3.063.6%-5
KansasRichmond9.782.0%-10.5
Ohio StateKentucky6.276.0%-5
Florida StateVCU3.964.7%-4

It’s interesting that Florida is a 2.5-point favorite according to the sportsbook even though they are a 2.5-point underdog according to Sagarin. That probably has to do with the sportsbook trying to take into account the loss of Brandon Davies, but his absence sure didn’t hurt BYU against Gonzaga.

Conversely, SDSU is a 1.0-point underdog despite being a Sagarin favorite.

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