Tag: 2009-10 College Basketball (Page 7 of 19)

      Kelvin Sampson’s fingerprints still linger

      March 22, 2010 /

      Kelvin Sampson may be gone — he’s an assistant coach for the surging Milwaukee Bucks — but his former players (and recruits) are doing a lot of damage in the tourney.

      Six guys who either played for or were recruited by Sampson all made the field in different uniforms and five of them were still playing when the second round tipped off.

      “I hadn’t thought about that, but I guess there are a lot of us,’’ said West Virginia’s Devin Ebanks, a top five recruit who decommitted after Sampson was booted at IU.

      Damion James, ousted in the first round when Texas lost to Wake Forest, was supposed to play at Oklahoma but he was released from his scholarship after Sampson left OU for Indiana, leaving a trail of NCAA stink behind and no players for Jeff Capel.

      Scottie Reynolds could have been James’ teammate. Instead Capel let him out of his commitment, too. On Saturday he and Villanova lost to St. Mary’s in the second round.

      Armon Bassett, angry at the university’s decision to force Sampson out, was reportedly part of a pack of players that threatened not to play after Sampson left. He was dismissed by interim head coach Dan Dakich, reinstated by Crean and then booted again. On Thursday night, Bassett led Ohio University to one of the more stunning first-round upsets, scoring 32 in a win against Georgetown.

      With players leaving left and right, Jordan Crawford told Crean in June 2008 that he, too, would be leaving Bloomington. He transferred to Xavier. The Musketeers will play Pitt in the second-round on Sunday.

      Sampson sure could recruit, but one wonders if all those illegal texts and phone calls were the reason why.

      College Basketball, March Madness

      Friday brings some sense of normalcy

      March 20, 2010 /

      After a wild and wacky opening day, things settled down quite a bit on Friday, with the higher seeds winning 13 of 16 games. The only upsets — #10-seeded Georgia Tech and Missouri, and #12-seed Cornell — didn’t seem like upsets at all. Georgia Tech and MIZZOU were both “live dogs,” while that Temple/Cornell matchup was hyped as an upset special as soon as the bracket was announced. If the Big Red hadn’t won, it would have been a disappointment (like the Siena Saints).

      Ken Pomeroy and Jeff Sagarin are both 25-7 in picking games by all margins, but Pomeroy is faring better with the big favorites, going 15-2 over the first two days in games where the favorite has a 70%+ chance of winning. Sagarin is just 16-5 in games where one team has a 3+ point advantage. He’s actually doing better overall with games in the 0 to 3-point range (9-2).

      Bracket-wise, it was a bloody first two days, but I think I made it through all right. Fifteen of my Sweet 16 teams are still alive (G-Town the only goner) and I still have all of my Elite 8 teams. I’m sure there are more than a few people who had Temple, Vanderbilt, Marquette and Notre Dame winning two games. It’s nice to win a lot of first round matchups, but it won’t matter much if you lose a Final Four team or two in the first couple of days. Still, it hurts to go 9-11 in games seeded 5/12 through 8/9. I picked a lot of upsets — SDSU, Minnesota, Siena, Florida St. — and didn’t pick the ones that came in — Old Dominion, Washington, Cornell, Ohio or Northern Iowa. But I’m still alive, and that’s all that matters.

      My first three bets went 2-1, with St. Mary’s and Georgia Tech winning and Utah St. getting worked over pretty well by Texas A&M. I like St. Mary’s +4.5 and Ohio +8.5 today.

      Today’s action starts with three potential upsets — Nova/SMC, Butler/Murray St. and Tennessee/Ohio — but I’m also looking forward to seeing if BYU can hang with Kansas State. If the Cougars can pull the upset, they’ll be heading back to Salt Lake City to potentially play two games 45 minutes from campus.

      College Basketball, March Madness

      Saturday values

      March 19, 2010 /

      Earlier this week, I identified a few games that seemed like good value plays based on the Sagarin ratings for the two teams. St. Mary’s won easily, while Georgia Tech and Utah State are going today. Let’s take a look at Saturday’s games.

      Kansas State (-4.5) vs. BYU
      Sagarin says this game is basically a pick ’em with the Wildcats having a slight (0.7-point) advantage. So that means that the Cougars should be a good value here since they’re getting 4.5 points. Based on what I saw of BYU against UNLV and Florida, I am not too impressed with the Cougars, so I don’t really like this bet.

      Villanova (-4.5) vs. St. Mary’s
      Sagarin gives the Wildcatsa 2.2-point advantage, so the Gaels look like a solid bet value-wise. I also like this bet with the eye test. Villanova has good guards, but so do the Gaels, and St. Mary’s also has 6’11” Omar Samhan down low. Villanova doesn’t have much on the front line. Not only do I like the Gaels plus the points, but they also have a good chance to win this one outright.

      Kentucky (-9) vs. Wake Forest
      Sagarin pegs Kentucky as a 6.7-point favorite, so Wake Forest would be the value pick here. Can they keep it close? Sure, but they’re coming off a late overtime win on Thursday and might be a little worn down. I’d take a pass.

      Tennessee (-8.5) vs. Ohio
      Sagarin says the Vols are an 8.3-point favorite, so at first glance, this line doesn’t look too far off. But Ohio has battled adversity all year and it was only after the last couple of weeks that the Bobcats really came together. Ohio has now won six straight and eight of its last nine, including Thursday’s big win against Georgetown. Tennesee is great at defending the three, but those are a lot of points for the Vols to give.

      Recommended picks: St. Mary’s +4.5, Ohio +8.5

      College Basketball, March Madness

      Are there any games worth betting in the first round?

      March 17, 2010 /

      The NCAA Tournament starts tomorrow, so I thought it would be interesting to take a look at the first two days worth of games and compare the line with Jeff Sagarin’s ratings (that I used to make my bracket picks) and see if there were any games that stood out as good values. Here’s what I found:

      The idea is that if a line differs greatly from the Sagarin line, and the Sagarin lines are accurate, then it should be a good value wager. Of the 31 games (Duke/Arkansas-Pine Bluff was off the books), 11 had lines that were within one point of the Sagarin difference between the two teams. Nine were between 1.0-2.0 points away from the Sagarin line. Eight were within 2.0-3.0 points away, two were 3.0-4.0 points away and just one was more than four points away. Here’s a look at the games that differed the most from the Sagarin line, in descending order:

      Richmond (-2.5) vs. St. Mary’s
      Sagarin says that the Gaels actually have almost a two-point advantage over the Spiders, so the value bet here would be St. Mary’s +2.5. My problem with this wager is that St. Mary’s has to fly cross country to Rhode Island and play at 11:50 AM PT. Every team is different, but jet lag and Circadian rhythms are tough to quantify. Playing at noon probably isn’t going to have as big of an effect as tipping-off at, say, 10 PM.

      Oklahoma State (-1.5) vs. Georgia Tech
      Sagarin pegs the Yellow Jackets as a 2.3-point favorite in this game, so the line appears to be “off” by almost four points. Georgia Tech +1.5 would be the value bet here, and it looks pretty solid. Freshman Derrick Favors is really coming on, so if Georgia Tech can keep its turnovers under control, they should be able to advance.

      Notre Dame (-2.5) vs. Old Dominion
      The Monarchs are actually a 1.0-point favorite according to Sagarin, but the Irish are playing well of late, so I wouldn’t recommend this bet. Prior to losing to WVU by two in the Big East tourney, the Irish rattled off six straight wins against Pittsburgh (twice), Georgetown, Marquette, Seton Hall and a desperate UConn team. Notre Dame is playing a slower style that suits its personnel.

      California vs. Louisville (pick ’em)
      Sagarin pegs the Golden Bears as 2.9-point favorites, but it’s tough to go with Cal here seeing as they have to fly cross country to Jacksonville. However, the game is at 9:45 PM ET, which might play with the Cardinals’ Circadian rhythms a bit in the second half. Most kids aren’t used to playing basketball at 11 PM at night. To the Cal players, it will seem like a 6:45 tip-off.

      Purdue (-4) vs. Siena
      Sagarin thinks the Boilermakers are a 6.7-point favorite, so to the computer, Purdue is the value pick here. But the numbers can’t account for the loss of Robbie Hummel, so I wouldn’t touch the Boilermakers with a 10-foot pole.

      Texas A&M (-3) vs. Utah State
      Sagarin only gives A&M a 0.3-point advantage, so Utah State is the value pick here. The game is in Spokane which would seem to support this wager. This one I like.

      To recap, the three wagers that seem reasonable are St. Mary’s +2.5, Georgia Tech +1.5 and Utah State +3. Unfortunately, the St. Mary’s and Utah State picks go against my bracket picks. So it’s a good thing that betting on sports is illegal in most parts of the country, right?

      College Basketball, Free Picks, March Madness

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