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What are the odds Adrian Peterson can live up to his predictions?

It may have just been a harmless answer to a question, but Adrian Peterson is feeling pretty confident these days. Peterson said he will eventually break Emmitt Smith’s all-time career rushing record. Not only did he say he would break the record, Peterson said he expected to break the record in Week 16 of the 2017 NFL season. Apparently he didn’t do the math, as so far his current pace would have him getting the mark in the 2019 season.

Now, we live in an age where every comment becomes a major news story, as 24-hour cable sports networks and millions of blogs need to generate content. Still, a bit of humility would serve Peterson well. First, he should focus all of his comments on his team, not in individual goals. Next, he should stay as far away from numbers as he can. It will become a very big distraction. He should focus on his health and his game, and then say the numbers will take care of themselves.

Still, if you’re a betting man, Peterson’s obsession with his yardage totals has to be a consideration as you consider NFL odds for the upcoming football season. Football bets such as the NFL odds for the player who will get the most rushing yards this season are very interesting and can vary greatly from year to year. Peterson is a huge favorite, and if you pick him you have to love his attitude. Also, you have to be wary of betting against him considering his attitude.

Frankly, I think that particular bet is way too risky, as injuries usually have a huge impact on final numbers, and running backs get hurt a lot. I’m still partial to working the NFL odds on a game to game basis. With that in mind, I love the idea of games where Peterson faces defenses that have trouble stopping the run. Many people are still skeptical of the Vikings and Christian Ponder, but a healthy Peterson makes them a tough out in every game they play. I like them as road dogs against teams like the Packers who don’t remember how to tackle.

Ryan Braun suspended for rest of the season

MLB isn’t messing around, and we now have the first suspension from the latest PED scandal with Ryan Braun getting suspended for the rest of the season. I suspect A-Rod will be next, and who knows who else will get dinged. If he’s suspended, A-Rod can also kiss the Hall of Fame goodbye as well, and other teams may be kissing the playoffs goodbye if key players suffer the same fate as Braun.

Intrigue surrounds Newton, Bradford and Freeman heading into 2013

With training camps ready to kick off around the NFL, intrigue surrounds a handful of starting quarterbacks. Here’s a closer look at three rather polarizing signal callers.

Cam Newton
Even if the Panthers match their 2012 season and amass another 7-9 record, Newton will head into 2014 as Carolina’s starting quarterback. Nobody will fault Newton if he can’t out-duel Matt Ryan and Drew Brees within the NFC South, especially when you consider the weapons that the Falcons and Saints have offensively. That said, more will still be expected of Newton as he heads into his third season. In seven of his final eight games, he averaged 245.6 passing yards per contest and threw 13 touchdowns compared to just three interceptions. He also rushed for 360 yards and four scores during that same span and continues to be one of the best playmaking quarterbacks in the NFL. But his accuracy was erratic in his second season and his decision making in the clutch also came under scrutiny. He improved when the Panthers took more off his shoulders and spread the wealth offensively, so look for new coordinator Mike Shula to build off of what Rob Chudzinski was able to accomplish with Newton in the second half of last year. Can Newton improve upon his career completion percentage of 58.9? Will the departure of Chudzinksi stall his progress? Will he prosper or fold in the fourth quarter of close games? Newton will once again be one of the more intriguing signal callers heading into the 2013 season.

Sam Bradford
Given the lack of playmakers, the carousel of offensive coordinators, and the suspect pass protection, there have been plenty of excuses for why Bradford hasn’t improved upon his rookie of the year campaign in 2010. But considering the offseason the Rams just had, there are no more excuses: Bradford needs to excel in 2013. Thanks to the free agent signings of Jake Long and Jared Cook, as well as the selections of Tavon Austin, Stedman Bailey and Zac Stacy, Bradford will be surrounded by more playmakers this season than at any point during his four-year career. The offensive line has also improved significantly over the past two offseasons (at least on paper), and this will be the first time that Bradford will play under the same offensive coordinator (Brian Schottenheimer) in back-to-back years. Will Bradford elevate his game is the question. According to Rotoworld.com, he’s completed just 46.4 percent of his red zone passes for 541 yards, 29 touchdowns and eight interceptions over the course of his career. And while the St. Louis Post-Dispatch points out that Bradford’s touchdown-to-interception ratio jumped to 9:1 in the red zone during the second half of the 2012 season, that came against San Francisco (twice), NY Jets, Minnesota, Buffalo and Tampa Bay, which all ranked 22nd or lower in red zone defense. Simply put, he needs to be more consistent on third downs and inside the 20 if this new-look Rams offense is going to fire on all cylinders. He’s wanted more responsibility at the line of scrimmage and he’ll get that under Schottenheimer, who wants Bradford to run more up-tempo looks Time will tell if Bradford can push to become an elite quarterback or settle for being a glorified game manager that doesn’t show the ability to elevate those around him.

Josh Freeman
Who is the real Josh Freeman? The quarterback that threw 16 touchdown passes to just three interceptions between Weeks 6 and 11 last season, or the one that finished with a TD:INT ratio of 6:10 during the Bucs’ 1-5 slide at the end of 2012? Freeman’s biggest issue heading into 2013 is overcoming pressure. He struggles when defenses rush him off the edge, he struggles when they put pressure in his face, and he struggles in a muddied pocket. Granted, most quarterbacks have issues when they’re under duress. According to Pro Football Focus, nine of Freeman’s 17 interceptions last year came when he was under pressure, which probably isn’t an uncommon percentage among starting NFL quarterbacks. But in his four seasons, the Bucs are just 24-32 with him as a starter, and no playoff appearances. Over that same span, Tampa Bay is also just 5-10 against Atlanta and New Orleans, and if Freeman can’t beat those two opponents than the Bucs will continue to fall short in the NFC South. Now, are those failures all on Freeman? Of course not. In fact, he was nearly unbeatable at one point last year, albeit with the aid of Doug Martin and Vincent Jackson. But it’s telling that the Bucs are willing to head into 2013 without extending Freeman’s contract. Greg Schiano wants and demands more from his quarterback, who has enough playmakers around him to succeed. (Tampa has done a nice job of collecting talent on both sides of the ball the past two offseasons.) If Freeman can’t become a more consistent playmaker, the Bucs may chalk up that 10-win season in 2010 as a fluke and look to move on next offseason.

Phil Mickelson wins British Open

Putting is so important in major championships, and Phil Mickelson was on fire today as he stormed to a stunning comeback win in the British Open. He birdied four of the last sic holes and said in the interview above that it’s the best he’s ever putted.

Meanwhile Lee Westwood faded and Tiger Woods was good but not good enough again. Think about it – Tiger hasn’t won a major in 5 years! He used to be well ahead of the pace set by Jack Nicklaus but know the two are pretty close. Passing Jack is no longer an easy task for Woods. There are plenty of young golfers who have emerged in the sport, and Mickelson continues to be a force in the game as well.

Let the Russell Wilson hype begin . . . again

Bill Barnwell takes a look at the big four rookie quarterbacks from 2012 and tries to project out to 2013 and beyond. He offers up some interesting statistics and comparisons that contribute to any conversation about the future prospects of Andrew Luck, Robert Griffin III, Russell Wilson and Colin Kaepernick.

Yet while he addresses how Andrew Luck had little to work with in Indy, he then brushes that off when deciding which of the group has the biggest upside. Like many NFL writers he obsesses too much about the stats and spends less time discussing what he actually sees on the field.

Andrew Luck was the single factor that drove the Colts. Plus, he did it as a classic drop back passer. Sure, he’s big and strong and he can scramble, but he didn’t rely on the trickery of the read-option to open up the passing game.

RG3 showed tremendous passing ability, but he’s the best runner at the quarterback position since Michael Vick, and the Shanahans milked that for all it was worth until the “geniuses” outsmarted themselves and almost destroyed Griffin’s career. Griffin is a rare talent with a golden arm, but now he’ll probably need to rely more on that arm without the same threat posed by his legs. His numbers from last year mean much less in that context.

Kaepernick and Wilson also benefited from the threat posed by their running ability, but both of them had the luxury of playing for teams that were loaded with talent. Both teams had excellent defenses and two of the best running games in football. Alex Smith looked like a pro-bowler in the same 49ers offense before Kaepernick took over. So it’s hardly fair to compare their stats to Luck’s stats without taking that into account.

Wilson definitely showed me a lot last year, but he’s also playing a dangerous game when he runs out of the pocket. At least Pete Carroll isn’t as reckless as Mike Shanahan, but I’m still not completely sold on Wilson being an elite quarterback. That said, he gets another weapon this year with Percy Harvin, but I suspect NFL defenses will adjust to his game.

I’ll take Andrew Luck over all of them, any day of the week.

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