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2011 Fantasy Rankings: First Basemen

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Here is how deep the first base pool has become: the guy who finished fourth statistically among first basemen, and who hit more home runs than every first baseman not named Albert Pujols, is ranked 12th in CBS’s projections for 2011 (14th if you count two 1B-eligible catchers). Twelve first basemen are projected to knock in over 100 runs (nine accomplished this feat last year), and 11 are projected to hit over 30 home runs (nine accomplished this last year as well). Which means, in theory, you could be the ninth person in your league, or even the last, to draft a first basemen, and you’ll still be good for a 30-100 stat line. Not too shabby.

Colorado Rockies catcher Miguel Olivo is struck in the head with a bat by St. Louis Cardinals Albert Pujols in the first inning in St. Louis on October 1, 2010. Olivo left the game and went to a local hospital to be checked. UPI/Bill Greenblatt

Big Dog goes ‘Arf’

And to think, that doesn’t include guys who hit 25 home runs or more (add another six). Underneath that group are another dozen hitters capable of blasting 25 dingers, provided you’re flexible in the batting average and strikeout department. First base is deep, kids, but that doesn’t mean you shouldn’t do your due diligence on the position. First, let’s discuss the wounded birds looking to reclaim their 2009 glory.

Kendry Morales, Angels
Yes! I just hit a Grand Slam and won the game for my tea-OW! What the hell just popped in my foot? Even stranger, this bitten-by-home-plate thing happened to two different guys last year. Morales was a beast in 2009, hitting 34 dingers and knocking in 108 runs (He even stole three bases, though his success rate was a dismal 30%), and he’s reasonably well protected with Vernon Wells, Torii Hunter and the ageless Bobby Abreu hitting around him. A safe estimate would be a 5% drop from his 2009 numbers, but he certainly has the potential to do better than that.

Justin Morneau, Twins
We love what a pure hitter Morneau is, but this concussion business is spooky. Football players come back from one after a week or two, while Morneau has been sidelined since July, which makes us wonder: what exactly was he seeing, and are those images still dancing around the periphery? The Twins are smart to be cautious with one of their most prized hitters, but we’re now eight months removed from the injury, and the Twins are still treating him like the boy in the plastic bubble. That’s troubling to put it lightly. His draft value obviously takes a hit – a third rounder last year, he’s a projected late sixth rounder this year – but that also makes him one hell of a steal, if he’s healthy.

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The St. Louis Cardinals, your cursed team for 2011

St. Louis Cardinals starting pitcher Chris Carpenter delivers a pitch to the San Francisco Giants in the second inning at Busch Stadium in St. Louis on August 21, 2010. UPI/Bill Greenblatt

Could things get any worse for the St. Louis Cardinals? The season hasn’t even started yet and already one of their aces is out for the year and the other left a spring training game due to a hamstring injury.

The good news is that Chris Carpenter should be fine after leaving Tuesday’s outing with what is being called a strained hamstring. The bad news is that the Cardinals are clearly cursed and I wouldn’t be surprised if red ants invaded the infield grass at Busch Stadium and started attacking the grounds crew.

All kidding aside, I wonder if this scare with Carpenter will force the Cardinals to reconsidering adding another arm before the season starts. There was some thought that 32-year-old minor league free agent acquisition Raul Valdes would be considered a replacement for Wainwright, but the early camp impressions haven’t been good.

Kevin Millwood is still waiting for some team to call, and the Cards seem like a good fit for the 36-year-old. But St. Louis appears to be set on going with internal options at this point, which is surprising seeing as how they’re built to win now (at least they were before Wainwright was injured).

For now, it appears as though the Cards are going with what they have but the injury to Carpenter may have changed their outlook on the pitching situation.

Murphy to Celtics; Bibby to Heat



The top two teams in the East just got a little better.

Marc Stein tweeted that Murphy told him personally that he’s going to Boston.

Murphy helps take some of the sting out of the loss of Kendrick Perkins in the Jeff Green trade. Murphy can rebound and shoot the three, so he’ll help space the court for the Celtics and give Doc Rivers another capable crunch time option with a little more length than Glen Davis.

I’m surprised Murphy didn’t pick the Heat, who seemingly have more available minutes at center, though maybe he wanted to get back to his Irish roots. The C’s are also in line to talk to Corey Brewer after his surprising buyout by the Knicks. He’s considered an elite wing defender and his on/off stats at 82games back that up.

Meanwhile, Mike Bibby is reportedly heading to the Heat. He’s well past his prime, but he’s still an upgrade over Mario Chalmers and Carlos Arroyo. I’m not sure why Miami hasn’t played with a Wade/Miller backcourt much this season, though Miller has been pretty bad as he’s been working his way back from injury.

Bibby gives the Heat an experienced player who won’t be afraid of the moment. He’s a good shooter who should be able to take advantage of open shots created by LeBron and Wade’s penetration. Good signing by Pat Riley.

2011 Fantasy Baseball Rankings: Catchers

2011 Fantasy Baseball Preview | 2011 Fantasy Baseball Rankings

Designing your draft strategy for catchers can sometimes be a nauseating task. Do you nab Joe Mauer in the second round and not worry about the position again until you add depth at the end of your draft, or do you fill other positions first and go for value late?

One strategy that you might want to consider is passing on the top 2-3 backstops (in our rankings that would constitute Mauer, Brian McCann and Victor Martinez) and waiting to select your catcher until at least Round 8. That way, when the pitchers start to fly off the board in Rounds 4 through 7, you’re not worried about investing a pick in McCann and Martinez when there will be plenty of value starting in Round 8.

But which players will be available then? Below is the tier we think you target starting in Round 8. If you think one of these catchers will fall to Round 9, 10 or 11, by all means: wait. But Rounds 8-11 is where you’ll find great value without having to shop for your starting backstop later in the draft when the pickings are slim and the value is scattered.

Buster Posey, Giants
After bursting onto the scene last year to help the Giants win their first World Series in over 55 years, Posey might not last until Round 8. But if he does and you feel good about your roster to that point, don’t waste any time announcing his name at your draft. He hit .305 with 18 dingers and 67 RBI while scoring 58 runs in just 443 plate appearances last season. He has the maturity of a 10-year veteran but is only a second-year pro. The Giants’ lineup is still weak as a whole, but Posey should hit around .300 again with 20-plus HRs, 80 RBI and 70 runs scored.

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