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2011 NFL Week 1 Odds

Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers (12) throws a pass under pressure against the Indianapolis Colts during the first quarter of their NFL football game in Indianapolis August 26, 2011. REUTERS/Brent Smith (UNITED STATES – Tags: SPORT FOOTBALL)

Oddsmakers have released the point spreads for Week 1 in the NFL. Along with a complete list of odds, here are a couple of games that jump out at me as we head into the opening week in the NFL.

Saints @ Packers, 8:30PM ET, Thursday
The action gets kicked off this season with a matchup between the 2010 Super Bowl champion Packers and the 2009 Super Bowl champion Saints. I envision a rebound year for Drew Brees and the Saints, who added solid depth on both sides of the ball this offseason and drafted a running back in Mark Ingram that could help restore balance to Sean Payton’s offense. The Packers, meanwhile, are coming off a Super Bowl win and will have tight end Jermichael Finley and running back Ryan Grant back from injury. Aaron Rodgers is an absolute stud and should be talked about among the league’s elite. In terms of the odds, the total is set high for a reason but I see this game falling under. In four of the last five season openers the total has fallen under and even though both of these teams can both light up the scoreboard, I don’t think we’ll see either of the Saints or Packers’ best offensive efforts this Thursday. Don’t forget it was a short offseason in terms of season preparation.
ODDS: PACKERS –4 (47)

Colts @ Texans, 1:00PM ET, Sunday
Personally, I think this is the Texans’ year. They went a long way to improve their horrendous defense by hiring Wade Phillips as coordinator and signing free agent corner Jonathan Joseph. Phillips has a knack for turning teams around quickly and I don’t think Houston will be an aberration. Peyton Manning will likely miss Week 1 and that means Kerry Collins will get the nod. If Manning is healthy the Colts are liable to go 12-4 but without him, they could just as easily fall to 4-12. The Texans usually start off the season on fire before fading in the second half. Maybe this year will be different. I see them getting off to a good start and without Manning, this one could be a blowout.
ODDS: TEXANS –9 (45.5)

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Peyton Manning will likely miss first game

Indianapolis Colts quarterback Peyton Manning throws a pass during the NFL’s Super Bowl XLIV game in Miami, Florida, in this February 7, 2010 file photo. He won’t hoist a Super Bowl trophy this year, but Manning can find comfort in a new survey that ranks him the most powerful athlete for his play on the field and his popularity off it. REUTERS/Mike Segar/Files (UNITED STATES – Tags: SPORT FOOTBALL BUSINESS)

Rumors have been flying around Twitter that Peyton Manning would need more surgery, so the Indianapolis Colts have issued a statement about Manning’s recovery process. Bottom line is that he’ll likely miss the first game as he has suffered some complications and they will be holding him out of practice this week as they try to figure out what is slowing down his recovery.

Tough day for the Pac-12

Louisiana State University running back Spencer Ware (L) celebrates his touchdown run against the University of Oregon with center T-Bob Hebert (C) and offensive tackle Chris Faulk in the second half of their NCAA football game at Cowboys Stadium in Arlington, Texas September 3, 2011. REUTERS/Mike Stone (UNITED STATES – Tags: SPORT FOOTBALL)

College football guru Bruce Feldman is now with CBS Sports following his controversial treatment by ESPN and ultimate departure. Bruce sums up this weekend’s college football action by noting the bad day for the Pac-12, at least on the field. off the field the conference might be on the verge of adding Texas and Oklahoma, further shaking up the crazy world off college football.

Chip Kelly has a dynamic offense, but it is seeming more and more like the frenetic Ducks attack that looks so, well, awesome in league play wilts when it goes up against power teams from other leagues, or at least teams with added prep time. (See: the 2009 opener at Boise; the 2010 Rose Bowl vs. Ohio State; the 2011 BCS title game against Auburn; and now Saturday night’s game against an LSU team that still had to replace an All-American DT [Drake Nevis] and the best defensive back in college football [Patrick Peterson]).

Kelly’s star, running back LaMichael James, who was held to just 54 yards rushing and 3.8 yards per carry against Auburn, managed 57 yards and fewer than 3.2 yards per rush against LSU. The most telling stats for the night, though, were these: Oregon had 28 carries and none went longer than 13 yards; and on 82 plays, the Ducks didn’t have any go for more than 18. That sounds so anti-Oregon. In fairness, we should note that the Ducks did travel into SEC country last year and blow out Tennessee, but those Vols were one of the worst teams in the SEC in 2010.

Kelly pointed out before the game that those teams that handled Oregon are great ones, well-coached and stocked with outstanding athlete. He echoed that point, again, after losing to LSU: “They’ve got a little bit different athlete running around out there right now,” he told Ted Miller. “Looking at their D-line, standing next to them, walking off the field, they don’t look like the kind of guys we see. That’s the common trait, the trait you saw in the Auburn game.”

As blunt as that is, that’s still not the kind of talk you’d expect to hear from the coach of a powerhouse program.

There a gimmicky element to what Kelly has been able to accomplish at Oregon. Sure, they’re a great team, but everyone gets caught up in the stats they rack up and their quick scoring ability, but the harsh reality is that their system comes up short against physical defenses with tough d-lines. It will be interesting to see if they can adjust, but in today’s idiotic BCS system, the chances are now much slimmer that they will get a chance to redeem themselves.

If we had a rational system, Oregon could get back to work and focus on running the table so they could be one of the final eight teams in the season-ending playoff system. Instead, we’ll have to listen to the talking heads on TV drone on endlessly about how they might squeak into the BCS title game if x, y and z occur.

Who needs offense? LSU crushes Oregon

Louisiana State University head coach Les Miles (R) talks with field judge Ed Kierce during the second half of the NCAA Cotton Bowl football game in Arlington, Texas January 7, 2011. REUTERS/Mike Stone (UNITED STATES – Tags: SPORT FOOTBALL)

LSU may have come into tonight’s game with Oregon missing its starting quarterback and wide receiver because of suspensions, but that didn’t matter. The LSU defense and special teams were more than enough in LSU’s 40-27 win.

It’s a real nice victory for LSU and the SEC (again). It’s a tough loss for Oregon, which is about to get the Ohio State label draped on it when it comes to big games. The Ducks, as it turns out, aren’t that difficult to defend if you have some time to prepare for them.

In their last three big-time nonconference games — Ohio State, Auburn and LSU — the Ducks offense hasn’t been anywhere near the explosive unit that it is during the season. People that are smarter than I am on Twitter claim it’s because what Oregon does is actually pretty simple, and when you have the athletes to match up with it, all you have to do is play assignment football.

That being said, shutting down Oregon is quite an accomplishment, and LSU’s defense won’t face many offenses that are more explosive. They’ll face different and more balanced offenses (Darron Thomas is woefully inadequate in the passing game), but not many that can do what the Ducks can.

It plays in the SEC West, so LSU has a hell of a lot of work to do in order to play for the title this year, but this was a huge hurdle, especially considering the suspensions. It was an even bigger hurdle for the SEC, which may have just guaranteed itself a spot in the title game again.

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