Nobody knows how tonight’s picks will work out. But naturally everyone will have opinions.

I’m more interested in overall strategy as opposed to making definitive statements about specific players. Good drafting is about more than player valuation. It’s mostly about probability analysis. The teams that forget that and fall in love with players usually end up making mistakes.

Let’s start with the Texans. This team has a horrible roster, and they have an owner that likes to meddle. They’re also on their third head coach in three years. Basically, the organization is a dumpster fire.

Despite that, the Texans were sitting on a ton of draft capital as a result of last year’s Deshaun Watson trade with the Browns. If they sat back and let the draft come to them, they could load up on talent this year and next.

But these are the Texans, so chaos rules. The owner wanted a quarterback, so they draft C.J. Stroud with the second pick of the draft. Solid pick. Now they could wait till pick #12 and get another very good player.

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Tom Brady has announced his retirement from the NFL, and it’s not hyperbole to say that this is the end of an era. Brady is the most successful quarterback in NFL history and is widely recognized as the greatest player to have played the position. Patrick Mahomes may have something to say about that over the next ten years, but for now nobody is coming close to Brady’s accomplishments.

After last year’s retirement fiasco and his subsequent personal issues, Brady handled this one in a clean and subdued manner, with a simple announcement on Instagram that didn’t leak. He handled it with class.

He also avoided any silly Brady vs. Belichick talk following his announcement by having Bill Belichick join him on his podcast, giving both of them the opportunity to gush over the other’s accomplishments, which frankly came off as very authentic.

Belichick was effusive in his praise of Brady, and went into great detail about how Brady saw the field and recognized coverages.

We were treated to a great Super Bowl last night. It featured the two best teams in the NFL fighting it out to the finish, with both quarterbacks delivering impressive performances. The penalty on the last drive was unfortunate because it prevented a final drive from Jalen Hurts and the Eagles to tie or win the game, but the holding call was probably correct. In the end, the Kansas City Chiefs were able to pull out a win over a tough Philadelphia Eagles team that came to play.

Point Spread

Going into the game, the Eagles were a 1.5 point favorite with the over/under at around 50. The game was very close and lived up to the billing of the two best teams in the NFL making it to the game. The Eagles were the sexy pick to cover, and the Patrick Mahomes injury was certainly a factor, but as we pointed out, the Eagles hadn’t faced a very tough schedule. Could their defense hold up against Mahomes if he was relatively healthy?

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The line in the Super Bowl between the Philadelphia Eagles and the Kansas City Chiefs started with the Chiefs as a 2.5 point favorite, but that didn’t last long at all. Money flooded to Philly, and now we have the Eagles as a 1.5 point favorite over the Chiefs.

Why all the confidence in Philly? The Patrick Mahomes injury is the most obvious and persuasive answer. He was limited in the KC win over the Bengals, even if it wasn’t nearly as bad as some expected.

Also, the Eagles have romped in the playoffs with big wins over the Giants and 49ers.

Still, can we be that impressed with those performances? The Giants are not an elite team, and the 49ers played without a healthy quarterback. If you take a look at Philadelphia’s schedule, and then take a look at their performance against the few good quarterbacks they faced, it’s difficult to get too confident in their ability to stop Mahomes, even if he’s not 100%.

One of the greatest soccer players of all time capped his amazing career with a World Cup championship. Lionel Messi led Argentina to victory in an epic final match over France that will be talked about as long as people care about soccer.

You can follow the twists and turns of the match in this rundown from Fox Sports which includes video highlights that were shared by the network on Twitter.

Messi scored twice in the match, while French superstar Kylian Mbappé in France’s amazing comebacks. The match was a story of leads and comebacks. Argentina built a 2-0 lead by halftime, and had plenty of chances to extend the lead. But France stormed back led by Mbappé to send the match to overtime. His second goal was simply spectacular. Argentina took another lead, only to have Mbappé tie it again on a penalty kick in the 118th minute.

The match then went to penalty kicks, which always adds even more drama. It almost didn’t seem fair to have a match this good be decided in this way. Both Messi and Mbappé hit the opening penalty kicks for their respective sides, but then Emi Martinez made his first save in the penalty kick round, and then Gonzalo Montiel ultimately hit the winner for Argentina.

What a game!

Messi deserves this, and we have to consider that Mbappé is only 26. He’ll have more opportunities, but this one has to sting for him and for all of France.

Meanwhile, it’s party time in Argentina!!