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2010 Fantasy Baseball Preview: Starting Pitchers

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Sometimes it’s difficult to evaluate what kind of production a player will have when he changes teams over the offseason. This is especially true when it comes to starting pitching, because not only can an unfamiliar ballpark play a role in how a starter fairs, but also what kind of offensive production he can expect from his new lineup and whether or not he’ll have a good spot in the rotation.

Below are eight starting pitchers that either changed teams at the tale end of the 2009 season or will be playing for a completely different club in 2010. We’ve outlined some factors that the pitchers will be facing in their new situation and try to project how they’ll fair in 2010. Some players (like Roy Halladay for example) can be counted on to be great no matter what team they wind up on. But what about guys like Jake Peavy (who will now have to pitch in the AL for a full season for the first time in his career) or Max Scherzer (a strikeout pitcher that is moving to a tougher AL after playing the past couple seasons in Arizona)?

Let’s take a look.

Roy Halladay, Phillies
You’re going to draft Halladay for the same reasons the Phillies parted with multiple players (including Cliff Lee and a couple of key prospects) in order to acquire him from the Blue Jays last winter: he’s outstanding. Halladay finished with 47 complete games last season and 14 shutouts, while also ranking 11th in innings pitched. Now that he’s playing in the NL on a team with a potent offense, he should have no problem winning 17-plus games and notching another 200 strikeouts. The only knock against Halladay’s new home is that the Phillies play in a hitter-friendly ballpark. But we’re thinking the veteran pitcher will adjust fine to his new digs.

Cliff Lee, Mariners
Lee felt he was shafted when the Phillies unloaded him in order to acquire Halladay last winter, but he should love his new surroundings. He’s walked fewer than two batters per nine innings in each of the past two seasons and will now have the luxury of having a solid defensive outfield at his back. He’s used to pitching in the AL from his days in Cleveland, so the league change won’t hurt him one bit. Lee is a top-notch fantasy starter.

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Q: Why does the Big East use a “double bye”?

The Big East consists of 16 teams which would seem to make it perfect for a standard tournament where the #1-seed plays the #16-seed, the #2-seed plays the #15-seed and so on.

But such a format would require the two teams that faced each other in the championship game — two teams likely to play in the NCAA Tournament the following week — to play four games in four days. The conference simply does not want to wear down its top teams before the Big Dance.

Also, the conference recognizes the tournament as its Championship, so the top teams should be rewarded in some way. A double bye gives the top four seeds a couple of days rest before their automatic bid into the quarterfinals. The next four teams get a round one bye, which means that the bottom eight teams have to play in the first round on Tuesday.

Click here to see the 2010 Big East Men’s Basketball Championship bracket
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How good are the Bucks?

On the heels of my feature about Andrew Bogut that I posted a couple of weeks ago, the Bucks have won five of six — and 10 of their last 11 — to rise to the #5 slot in the Eastern Conference. Even SLAM has taken notice, as evidenced by Colin Powers’ piece, “How good are the Bucks?”

The biggest factor, though, in the Bucks upward trajectory has definitively been Andrew Bogut. I saw the Bucks play live a couple weeks ago at the Garden, and was really struck by Bogut’s play. First of all, he is a massive, massive human being, completely dwarfing any of the Knicks players as he dominated all the traffic in the paint. For the season, his intensity and commitment on the defensive end has jumped far beyond what we have seen in the past, manifest in his 2.5 blocks per game, nearly double his career average up until this point. Bogut’s strength as a one-on-one defender as well as his presence in the lane as a bulwark against perimeter players attacking the rim have been fundamental to Milwaukee’s greatly improved team defensive (they rank 10th in the League in FG% allowed at 45%). Meanwhile, Coach Skiles’ credentials as a gifted defensive coach has only been reinforced by Bogut’s transformation.

On the offensive end, Bogut has great hands and is very active around the bucket, comfortable finishing with both hands, apt at using the glass and shooting the jumphook in addition to knocking down an occasional J from 15 feet or so. Since his Utah days, he has always been a gifted passer, whether downlow or from the high post, and he has continued to display that ability this season. His name doesn’t often come up in discussing the best young big men in the NBA, but it should.

Granted, the Bucks have had a nice schedule of late, with wins at Detroit, Charlotte, at New York, New Orleans (w/o Chris Paul), at Indiana, at Miami (w/o D-Wade), a home-and-home against Washington, Cleveland (w/o LeBron), and last night’s win against the relatively healthy Boston Celtics. But still, winning 10 of 11 is impressive, and their sole setback was a four-point OT loss to a talented Atlanta Hawks team.

Bogut has been the key. The Aussie averaged 16-11 with 2.8 blocks in February, and is off to a 19-10-4.3 start in four games in March. Moreover, he’s hitting better than 54% from the field and is finding his groove at the free throw line. (He’s shooting 85% in March.) Credit should also go to John Salmons (19-3-3 since the trade) and Carlos Delfino (13-7-3, 40% 3PT in Feb & March), who have given the Bucks legitimate threats on the wing. And let’s not forget the 22-year-old Ersan Ilyasova (10-6, 35% from 3PT on the season) who has played well all year, whether he starts or not.

But back to Bogut. His post-All-Star play has me wondering if he’s making a run at an All-NBA nod despite being passed over for the All-Star Game. Dwight Howard is a shoe-in for 1st Team honors, but who is the second-best center in the league? Tim Duncan is considered a forward, so Amare Stoudemire seems like the next logical option, but his defense pales in comparison to Bogut’s. If the Bucks end up with 45+ wins and the #5 or #6 playoff spot in the East, it will be interesting to see if Bogut earns an All-NBA nod. He faces a steep climb seeing that he has to shrug off the unbelievably high expectations of being a former #1 overall pick and that he plays in a small market for a team that few seem to care about around the league.

But first things first — the Bucks need to keep up their fine play. The road gets a little tougher as they host a hot Utah team on Friday and face the Nuggets, Hawks, Heat, Grizzlies and Cavs before the month is out. There are very winnable games intermixed — the Clippers twice, the Pacers, the Kings and the Sixers — and there are just two back-to-backs remaining in March.


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Joe Lunardi’s bubble teams (3/10)

Here’s the latest from ESPN Bracketologist Joe Lunardi:

The Bubble (17 teams for nine spots)

Currently In (9, listed in S-Curve order): Marquette Golden Eagles, Virginia Tech Hokies, Notre Dame Fighting Irish, Florida Gators, Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets, Memphis Tigers, Arizona State Sun Devils, San Diego State Aztecs, Illinois Fighting Illini

Currently Out (8, listed in S-Curve order):
Washington Huskies, Seton Hall Pirates, Ole Miss Rebels, Rhode Island Rams, Dayton Flyers, UAB Blazers, Mississippi State Bulldogs, Minnesota Golden Gophers

Off The Board:
Wichita State Shockers, Cincinnati Bearcats, Connecticut Huskies, South Florida Bulls

Last Four In: Memphis, Arizona State, San Diego State, Illinois

First Four Out: Washington, Seton Hall, Ole Miss, Rhode Island

Looking for a game to watch today? Check out Seton Hall/Notre Dame at 7 PM ET on ESPN. Seton Hall desperately needs a win and Notre Dame could potentially lose their bid with a loss.

Browns officially put Brady Quinn on trade block

According to ESPN’s Adam Schefter, the Browns have had trade discussions with other teams about quarterback Brady Quinn. Schefter doesn’t share any other details than that, so it’s unclear at this point which teams would be interested in the former first round pick.

It’s clear by the offseason reports that the new brass in Cleveland isn’t satisfied with its quarterback situation. The Browns traded for Seneca Wallace earlier in the week and released Derek Anderson on Tuesday, so with Quinn on the block Mike Holmgren could be gearing up to make a trade for a veteran quarterback.

But whom will he target? Donovan McNabb is the first name that comes to mind, but it sounds like the only way the Eagles will part with the veteran QB is if they can acquire a first round pick in return. Unless they trade down, it’s hard to see Holmgren giving up the No. 7 overall pick to acquire an aging McNabb.

Another name that makes sense is Matt Hasselbeck, whom Holmgren is obviously very familiar with. Rumor has it that the Seahawks have contacted the Eagles about a possible trade for either McNabb or Kevin Kolb and if one of them were acquired, Hasselbeck would then become expendable.

All of this remains a long shot right now (the Eagles maintain that they want to keep McNabb and Kolb), but this news about Quinn being placed on the trading block opens the door to several possibilities.


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