The NFL draft never unravels the way we expect. In the months leading up to the event, we discuss a multitude of scenarios surrounding our favorite teams and yet, there are always a handful of surprises in the first round.
That said, don’t be surprised if…
…Florida State quarterback E.J. Manuel is selected in the first round.
Out of all of the quarterbacks in this year’s draft class, Manuel is the best fit for the read-option (i.e. the NFL’s hottest trend). If a team were to take a chance on a quarterback in the first round, it would for Manuel – not USC’s Matt Barkley, who doesn’t have great arm strength and who is coming off a shoulder injury. While his accuracy and decision making need to improve, Manuel is described as a natural leader with great athleticism, prototypical height and above average arm strength. He’s also been invited to attend Radio City Music Hall, indicating that he’ll be a top 40 selection.
…the two guards aren’t selected in the top 15.
Over the past three months, Chance Warmack and Jonathan Cooper have drawn rave reviews from scouts and draftniks alike. In fact, Warmack is a popular pick for the Titans at No. 10 in most mocks, and Cooper is often listed in the teens. But not many mocks had Stanford’s David DeCastro falling out of the top 15 last year and he made it all the way to the Steelers at No. 24 overall. The fact is that teams don’t value guards as highly as draftniks do, not even elite prospects like Warmack and Cooper. Since 2004, the average draft position for guards in the first round is pick No. 23.
…Tavon Austin drops out of the top 15.
The NFL is about height, weight and speed. It’s why hundreds of grown men flock to Indianapolis every year to pour over measurements and forty-yard dash numbers for nearly a week. There’s plenty of buzz that Austin could be selected in the top 15, but his lack of size would suggest otherwise. He’s 5’8″ and 174 pounds, which is right at the NFL minimum for wide receiver prospects. Granted, his 4.3 speed and playmaking ability make him a surefire first-rounder, but this notion that he’ll be taken in the top 10 seems absurd. The Rams have the No. 16 selection. If you’re looking for the perfect over/under for Austin’s draft projection, start with that number.
…the Dolphins trade into the top 5.
There’s been talk about Miami trading into the top 10 but why would Jeff Ireland stop there? He was the most active general manager in free agency and he knows his team needs to find a replacement for Jake Long (FA/Rams). Thus, why trade ahead of the Cardinals at No. 7 in efforts to land Oklahoma’s Lane Johnson when he might be able to get into the top 5 and nab an elite left tackle prospect like Central Michigan’s Eric Fisher? The Raiders own the No. 3 overall pick and might make the perfect trade partner seeing as how a) they lack picks due to Hue Jackson’s boneheaded trade for Carson Palmer two years ago and b) they select directly ahead of Philadelphia and Detroit, which also need offensive line help. Ireland has seemingly made aggressive move after aggressive move this offseason in efforts to save his job in Miami. What’s one more on draft night?
…the Jaguars take Geno Smith.
The most popular pick to Jacksonville at No. 2 is Oregon defensive end/linebacker Dion Jordan, which makes sense given the team’s need at pass rusher. But neither David Caldwell nor Gus Bradley drafted Blaine Gabbert, which means there’s no loyalty there. How many times do we see new head coaches and/or general managers take over a team and one of their first moves is to acquire a franchise signal caller? Smith isn’t close to being a top 5 pick but he plays the most coveted position in the NFL and he is the best quarterback prospect in this draft. He could wind up sinking the Jaguars further into NFL oblivion but chances are Caldwell and Bradley are willing to take that chance.
