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Which position is the safest to draft in the first round?

Originally posted 4/17/2009. Updated 4/21/2010.

When it comes to the first round of the NFL Draft, is one position safer than another? For example, if the Rams have three holes to fill (they have more, but bear with me) – quarterback, wide receiver and defensive tackle – and they can’t decide amongst the three players, is one position a safer pick than the other two?

I compiled a list of the 345 players that were picked from 1997-2007 (assuming that it takes three seasons to get a decent idea of what kind of player a draft pick is going to turn out to be) and asked our NFL guru, Anthony Stalter, to rate each player on a scale of 1 to 5…

(1) Out of League
(2) Reserve
(3) Starter
(4) Star
(5) Superstar

The Out of League, Star and Superstar categories are pretty self-explanatory. To qualify as a Starter, the player must be starter-caliber for the majority of his NFL career. A Reserve is a player that is a backup for the majority of his career, so he may have started at one point, but on the whole he’s a backup. For the younger players, Anthony had to project a little bit. For example, a player is a starter in his third year – does he project to be star or superstar, or will he simply be a starter for the majority of his career?

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The Lions’ potential dilemma: Suh vs. Haynesworth

There’s growing speculation that the Lions might part with a draft pick or two in order to acquire Albert Haynesworth from the Redskins. The compensation in the deal from the Lions’ standpoint has been rumored to be anything from their first round pick, to a better cell phone plan for Daniel Snyder.

But why would the Lions want Haynesworth when they will likely have the opportunity to draft Nebraska DT Ndamukong Suh with the second overall pick tomorrow night?

Some pundits believe that the Lions will take Oklahoma’s Gerald McCoy over Suh at No. 2, but that’s crazy talk. McCoy is a fine player, but he’s not Suh. McCoy racked up 83 tackles, 33 tackles for loss and 14.5 sacks in three seasons at OU. Suh nearly matched that production last year alone, so let’s stop with the comparisons already. If the Lions intend on drafting a defensive tackle at No. 2, then they’re going with Suh over McCoy and I’m willing to risk my extremely low blogging reputation on it.

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Big Ben, Raiders seem to be a perfect match

Let’s pretend you’re Art Rooney II for a moment and you’re trying to deal with the internal war that has been raging inside you since Ben Roethlisberger was once again accused of not being able to keep his hands to himself.

Your head is telling you that it’s unwise to get rid of a franchise quarterback because after all, it’s not like they’re sitting on shelves next to the Big Bites at 7-Eleven. Trade Big Ben and you run the risk of setting your already diminishing franchise back several years in the process.

But then your emotions start to get the best of you again. You know that even though Big Ben the groper hasn’t been charged with anything, this clearly isn’t the trustworthiest of people. In the past four years, he’s been accused of sexually assaulting two women and almost killed himself by not wearing a helmet while riding his motorcycle. Considering he was just suspended six games next season, maybe it’s time to cut your losses and close the final chapter on the Ben Roethlisberger era in Pittsburgh.

Now, finding a trade partner is a little harder that it seems. More than half the league needs a franchise quarterback, but teams aren’t usually overly excited to part with a first rounder for a player with a history of making poor off-field choices and who will be suspended for the first part of next season. Buffalo, Kansas City and San Francisco are three teams that might be interested, but all three would likely pass in the end. The Bills can’t field a competitive team around Big Ben, while the Chiefs and 49ers aren’t likely to part with other players in order to pay for his services (especially in KC’s case, which shelled out big money to sign Matt Cassel last year).

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Phil is in Durant’s kitchen

Last week, Phil Jackson said that Kevin Durant gets too many calls and the third-year superstar took umbrage. Now it’s a thing and Durant is showing irritation when he gets asked about it repeatedly.

The easy-going Oklahoma City Thunder star became riled up when responding to yet another question about his reaction to Lakers coach Phil Jackson, who last week criticized officials for how the call the game for Durant.

And so when Durant was asked once again whether he overreacted to Jackson, Durant, well, overreacted.

“Do you think I overreacted?” Durant asked the reporter, who responded by saying he didn’t know.

“Are you one of them?” Durant continued. “Nah, I didn’t overreact. Why, because I’m a third-year player I can’t say nothing back to Phil Jackson? I’m standing up for myself and what I believe in. I really don’t say nothing to too many people in this league who say stuff about me and our team and how I play and how we play. But I felt I had to say something back.

“I’m always quiet. I’m always nice and (respectful) to other people, not just on the basketball floor but off the basketball floor, like you guys. But I felt at that time I had to take up for myself. It is what it is. It’s over with. It had nothing to do with this series.”

Phil Jackson has taken residence in Durant’s kitchen and it doesn’t look like he’s leaving anytime soon. Had Durant simply said something like “Phil’s a great coach and he’s entitled to his opinion” and left it at that, the story would have died quickly. Instead, he got defensive and it became a bigger story that is going to follow him around for the rest of the series, maybe longer.


Photo from fOTOGLIF

OKC had its shot last night

The Lakers/Thunder series isn’t technically over, but it’s well on its way. After a pair of Russell Westbrook free throws, OKC held an 88-86 lead with 2:49 to play in the fourth quarter. But three straight turnovers — a Serge Ibaka goaltend, a Kevin Durant offensive foul, and a bad pass by Durant — coupled with a 7-0 run by the Lakers (six points came from Kobe) led to a 93-88 Laker lead and L.A. never looked back.

Kobe Bryant posted 39-5-1 (39 points and one assist…wow!), while Pau Gasol added 25-12. Ron Artest was tasked with guarding Durant, and did a pretty good job, especially down the stretch. His defense forced the first Durant turnover during the aforementioned game-changing run. KD finished with 32 points on 26 shots.

This was the Thunder’s chance to make this a series. While they could still potentially hold serve in Games 3 and 4, and tie the series up, it’s more likely that the Lakers steal one of those games in Oklahoma City and finish the Thunder off in Game 5 in L.A.


Photo from fOTOGLIF

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